Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Ok who kidnapped Chuck and replaced him with is less evil twin? 

I am interested to see if +PNA holds if we go back to -NAO past 15D.. 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Kevin Reilly said:

Yea but that event had no "real" cold air locked in and it just vanished as the high way up north quickly left this is a different scene now.

Yes and ifs are useless but if that low could have moved in Friday at 10am then I think that air mass at that time would  have snowed us

[Stormchaserchuck1]

2 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

My question was rhetorical of course. Most here should be aware a smoothed mean won't pick up on those most of the time at that range.

CPC is going with below average precip right now

https://ibb.co/Zg7hQs7

[WEATHER53]

51 minutes ago, WesternFringe said:

I think you are getting closer to the way most of us think about models, but they are tools for forecasting (meteorologists literally use them as tools to do so) and they don't show every possible outcome.  Without models, we would have no idea that it is going to get very cold next week, for example.  Now, we don't know exactly what each shortwave is going to do 5-10 days away, but we do know the major players at 500 and the overall synoptic set-up that will drive the weather during this timeframe.

I just looked at a model pack with 70 differing solutions for DC. From 0 to 15”. That’s A Lot of Examples.  How many more would you need to call it “every possible outcome” ??

[winter_warlock]

17 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Someone get Jobu some rum and a cigar and get this show started. Cerrano is bound to hit a curveball eventually. 

In my best pedro cerrano voice.... " it is VERY BAD to steal Jobu's rum.. very bad!!" 

 

[Terrapinwx]

Initial trough is further SW on 18z NAM 84hr vs 12z GFS 90hr
https://ibb.co/6bV088Y

Nam at 84 looks very similar to the Euro, hopefully the start of something for the 18z runs


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[Solution Man]

Where’s @stormtracker, getting near happy hour

[NorthArlington101]

Nam at 84 looks very similar to the Euro, hopefully the start of something for the 18z runs


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The NAM at this range is probably about as good as the Mark Model

https://x.com/meteomark/status/1745163993893765438?s=46&t=YRAxGyE8QLsoshMtJniktg

[RevWarReenactor]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Any pattern breakdown continues to look brief if at all.  By the time it hits we might already be tracking a threat on the other side.  

Day 15

5 days later

Next 30 days 

That's how I drew it up in my mind.  I couldn't have created a better pattern if you handed me the magic crayons.  If this pattern doesn't work, during prime climo, during a nino... well it just better.  We aren't going to get a better chance than this to break out of our snow funk.  

First time, in 6+ years I've seen you say that a LR pattern looks perfect for snow.

Exciting.

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I just looked at a model pack with 70 differing solutions for DC. From 0 to 15”. That’s A Lot of Examples.  How many more would you need to call it “every possible outcome” ??

You're thinking about it wrong imo.  We don't have the skill to be able to make a "this many inches" forecast from 6 days out!   That's why we call them "clown maps".   But if you look at the mean SLP, H5, surface and 850 temps you get the picture that the guidance is indicating there is a pretty decent chance of a wave sliding along the boundary just to our south next Tuesday.  

A responsible and reasonable forecast right now would be "there is a chance of a storm along the east coast affecting us early next week, and there could be enough cold air for it to be snow.  It could also still slide out to sea.  We will keep an eye on it and know a lot more in a few days"  

You can try to give a more specific forecast but the truth is we don't have the ability to with any accuracy, you would just be guessing which of the possible solutions within the typical margin of error from this range is going to happen.  But the guidance isn't showing EVERY solution.  There is absolutely no chance of a snowstorm tomorrow, or Saturday.  Not much of one Next Wednesday.  95% of the time there is NO chance of snow on a given day!  So narrowing the scope to one where there is a reasonable chance of a storm that COULD be snow in our area next Tuesday is good enough for this range and the guidance does that.  If you know what is important, what is just noise, and what are reasonable assumptions to make from them.  

[WesternFringe]

34 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I just looked at a model pack with 70 differing solutions for DC. From 0 to 15”. That’s A Lot of Examples.  How many more would you need to call it “every possible outcome” ??

Did you see any 70 degree days in there? No?  

I bet you saw the vast majority of members showing a storm on or around the 16th.  That isn’t every possible outcome.  That is a specific outcome of a shortwave passing by.

Were some solutions warmer and some further north or further south?  Sure, because the models don’t have it pinned down from 6 days out.  But because of models, we know it is going to be cold and that a shortwave will be passing by the mid-atlantic.  Which is why we are all in here and talking about the 16th and the 20th.

How would you know that without models? And how would we know that if models were showing every possible outcome?

Furthermore, the individually perturbed members are meant to be taken in aggregate, not as 70 different models.

eta: I recall you saying that the cold would stay in place for the last storm and the mesos showing mixing and cold rain were wrong.  Were they wrong?  Or did the southerly winds at the midlevels cause mixing and rain for most?

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, RevWarReenactor said:

First time, in 6+ years I've seen you say that a LR pattern looks perfect for snow.

Exciting.

I thought Jan/Feb 2021 was pretty good and it was so close to a big period just not quite cold enough.  The last time I was this excited for a pattern was March 2018, which kind of underperformed here.  There were 4 legit threats and only 1 worked out.  We were also fighting the end of our realistic snow climo towards the end of that period too.  

[Mikeymac5306]

35 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

Someone get Jobu some rum and a cigar and get this show started. Cerrano is bound to hit a curveball eventually. 

 

[WEATHER53]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

You're thinking about it wrong imo.  We don't have the skill to be able to make a "this many inches" forecast from 6 days out!   That's why we call them "clown maps".   But if you look at the mean SLP, H5, surface and 850 temps you get the picture that the guidance is indicating there is a pretty decent chance of a wave sliding along the boundary just to our south next Tuesday.  

A responsible and reasonable forecast right now would be "there is a chance of a storm along the east coast affecting us early next week, and there could be enough cold air for it to be snow.  It could also still slide out to sea.  We will keep an eye on it and know a lot more in a few days"  

You can try to give a more specific forecast but the truth is we don't have the ability to with any accuracy, you would just be guessing which of the possible solutions within the typical margin of error from this range is going to happen.  But the guidance isn't showing EVERY solution.  There is absolutely no chance of a snowstorm tomorrow, or Saturday.  Not much of one Next Wednesday.  95% of the time there is NO chance of snow on a given day!  So narrowing the scope to one where there is a reasonable chance of a storm that COULD be snow in our area next Tuesday is good enough for this range and the guidance does that.  If you know what is important, what is just noise, and what are reasonable assumptions to make from them.  

I’m going to stop doing this. I know what I see from models and won’t be told different.

Rather right now ride the wave of good potentiality 

 

[MN Transplant]

4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I’m going to stop doing this. I know what I see from models and won’t be told different.

Rather right now ride the wave of good potentiality 

 

You can check out the code here and decide where the programmers decided to put in the 'every option' lines.  https://github.com/NOAA-EMC/fv3atm

[paulythegun]

wow, even the SPIRE model is moving our way.

00z: 

12z

 

[stormtracker]

Ok, it's about that time.  Back from the gym in time.  Goddamn resolutioners are back.  Can't wait until March when 75% of them will be gone.    Anyway, on with the show.....

[stormtracker]

30 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

Where’s @stormtracker, getting near happy hour

Hey baby

[LeesburgWx]

I can't do the emotional roller coaster anymore so if the models lose this tonight or tomorrow morning, I'm out.

[psuhoffman]

9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

I’m going to stop doing this. I know what I see from models and won’t be told different.

Rather right now ride the wave of good potentiality 

 

Explain to me again how you know there is potential? 

[jayyy]

Ok, it's about that time.  Back from the gym in time.  Goddamn resolutioners are back.  Can't wait until March when 75% of them will be gone.    Anyway, on with the show.....

Got my beer and a joint ready to go. Mid-Atlantic country, let’s ride.


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[Heisy]

Fan of the icon at the end of its run. In fact I bet that would have lead to very euro like solution if it went beyond 120, happy hour time



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Almost looks identical to euro

[Scraff]

Ok. Let’s make happy hour GooFuS count! One way or another, I’m in….happy hour mode. 
 

PS - Love what I’m seeing in the trends today. It’s goin snow!! Fingers crossed, knock on wood, etc etc. 

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said:

You can check out the code here and decide where the programmers decided to put in the 'every option' lines.  https://github.com/NOAA-EMC/fv3atm

OMFG 

[Maestrobjwa]

21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I thought Jan/Feb 2021 was pretty good and it was so close to a big period just not quite cold enough.  The last time I was this excited for a pattern was March 2018, which kind of underperformed here.  There were 4 legit threats and only 1 worked out.  We were also fighting the end of our realistic snow climo towards the end of that period too.  

Yeah March 2018 was a bit maddening because had we had that pattern a month earlier...could've been a lot better! Instead the most memorable event was the rather historic windstorm, lol (which was kinda fun in it's own way)

[Heisy]

18z icon vs 12z euro, pretty amazing similarities


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[Imgoinhungry]

I can't do the emotional roller coaster anymore so if the models lose this tonight or tomorrow morning, I'm out.

Tonight or tomm? Lol. How will you manage when it loses it on sunday morning?


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[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, Heisy said:

18z icon vs 12z euro, pretty amazing similarities


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This is evolving towards a frontrunner wave escaping and the trailing energy swinging around behind type deal which is a much better setup than what most guidance was suggesting yesterday.  

[psuhoffman]

The lead wave is problematic because its directly under the TPV which is tricky and most likely either squashed or would take a phase which would cut it west.  The trailing wave is behind the TPV initially which is where we want a wave to be on approach.  

[aldie 22]

I'd appreciate if this thing could speed up or slow down both are acceptable