Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

[caviman2201]

This seems like a very good chance for at least something for the whole area... and a massive improvement over 00z

[Daniel Boone]

37 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Thanks

Does the coonskin cap get wet and stinky in all this rain?

Wasn't meaning anything wrong toward you Howard. 

[brooklynwx99]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

thats the most important piece that he left out lol

there is no way in hell that ensemble modeling will pick such a feature out at 10 days 

[winter_warlock]

Well as long as i get more than the 2.5 inches i got last year.  I'll call this winter a success lol

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, winter_warlock said:

Well as long as i get more than the 2.5 inches i got last year.  I'll call this winter a success lol

You got 2.5??? Man you really cashed in, lol

[Shad]

mood has changed quite a bit in here since this morning

 

[NorthArlington101]

Median for next Tues/Weds

Mean

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Maestrobjwa said:

You got 2.5??? Man you really cashed in, lol

 Yeah lol  it was actually  the lowest amount ive ever had where i live now. 

[Solution Man]

22 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I guess we are chipping away at the PDO. I was never a believer in PDO being a leading indicator, but this Winter sure has made a case. I think we are up to -0.6 and still having a tendency to rise, so maybe a more organized +PNA can get going here in the next few weeks. It's also amazing how these El Nino constants hold (warm Dec, good 2nd half of Winter). Let's see if the +PNA can hold through February, because we are coming off the most powerful 6-year constant on record (-PNA) for February ('18-23)

 

[winter_warlock]

FWIW... HOUR 144 AND 168 of the JMA....

 

[TSSN+]

9 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Median for next Tues/Weds

Mean

 

[Ji]

14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there is no way in hell that ensemble modeling will pick such a feature out at 10 days 

not true at all...it picked up the jan 6 southern jet feature like 2 weeks beforehand!

[psuhoffman]

43 minutes ago, Shad said:

I really like what we are seeing on the Euro and EPS......do we think that this continues to trend south a bit more before the inevitable northern trend the last 48 hrs

This one does not necessarily have to trend north.  There is a TPV sitting right on top of us.  Depending on how that wobbles it could even suppress the wave further.  It's a chaotic situation with a ton of energy pinwheeling around the vortex but it's one where its not as sure to correct north IMO.  Last time I was very confident in a north correction because there was marginal cold, no blocking, nothing to stop the mid level southerly flow, and the NS was way out of the way.  There was no mechanism to suppress anything.  This is a different setup.  

[psuhoffman]

47 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

The 19th is a burp away from being a big time event

I prefer cows fart but go ahead 

[psuhoffman]

46 minutes ago, wawarriors4 said:

@RIC Airport posted this in the Richmond/SEVA thread.....

They lit up like a christmas tree 

[psuhoffman]

42 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

But....do we/will we get a stj wave moving across which is the final piece?

There is one there, it's just too weak as of yet and gets dominated by the NS making for more of a miller b screw job setup.  BUT...that wave wasn't even picked up at all until recently.  We just need a SLIGHT adjustment there and boom.  The pattern has been screaming for that window.  The longwave setup is absolutely perfect in every way.  We just need a somewhat healthy STJ wave to come along during a 48-72 hour window and it will likely work out.  12z GFS/EURO were very close just not quite a strong enough wave to get it done.  But its so close.  

[Terpeast]

6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There is one there, it's just too weak as of yet and gets dominated by the NS making for more of a miller b screw job setup.  BUT...that wave wasn't even picked up at all until recently.  We just need a SLIGHT adjustment there and boom.  The pattern has been screaming for that window.  The longwave setup is absolutely perfect in every way.  We just need a somewhat healthy STJ wave to come along during a 48-72 hour window and it will likely work out.  12z GFS/EURO were very close just not quite a strong enough wave to get it done.  But its so close.  

Let's see how clear the models get this after the next cutter. I think they'll start getting into better agreement on the final solution for the 19th to 22nd window once the cutter passes by on Friday. It would still be 7-10 days out at that point, but if the "big one" is going to get sniffed out early, we should start seeing that by then - around Friday/Saturday. Now? A bit too soon.

[psuhoffman]

45 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there are hints that there could be a vort traversing the southern US. I think this would be northern stream driven overall, but that can absolutely change. better to focus on the overall pattern right now, which is about as good as can be

Well be careful with that... because a NS dominant solution would likely not end well here.  Almost all of our big snowstorms need to be STJ dominant.  That is why there is such a huge difference in snow climo in la nina years between DC and NYC.  We are simply too far southwest for NS systems to work.  They develop to late for us 90% of the time.  I agree this time period has a LOT of potential, but if you want the mid atlanticn south of 40 to get in on it there will have to be a trend towards a stronger STJ component to the threat. 

[WesternFringe]

1 hour ago, WEATHER53 said:

Because, they are show every possible outcome 

I think I’m beginning to understand that models are for fun but not forecasting. This can help alleviate some of my angst and poor interactions at times.

When it shows snow and 28 at noon today for Tuesday and then shows rain and 60 at 18z then Neither was a Prediction of an actual high percentage outcome but rather an example of “if a,b,c, d” then such an outcome will follow and 6 hours later show “e,f,g,h” and just keep rotating every 6 hours.

im happy to finally get this through my thick head and perhaps I can just sit back and enjoy the myriad of examples that will be forthcoming. 

I think you are getting closer to the way most of us think about models, but they are tools for forecasting (meteorologists literally use them as tools to do so) and they don't show every possible outcome.  Without models, we would have no idea that it is going to get very cold next week, for example.  Now, we don't know exactly what each shortwave is going to do 5-10 days away, but we do know the major players at 500 and the overall synoptic set-up that will drive the weather during this timeframe.

[brooklynwx99]

12 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Well be careful with that... because a NS dominant solution would likely not end well here.  Almost all of our big snowstorms need to be STJ dominant.  That is why there is such a huge difference in snow climo in la nina years between DC and NYC.  We are simply too far southwest for NS systems to work.  They develop to late for us 90% of the time.  I agree this time period has a LOT of potential, but if you want the mid atlanticn south of 40 to get in on it there will have to be a trend towards a stronger STJ component to the threat. 

i agree there. it's also possible that the trough buckles enough to make the whole point moot. but yes, there is certainly the potential for more southern stream influence between now and the next 10 days

[TSSN+]

Someone get Jobu some rum and a cigar and get this show started. Cerrano is bound to hit a curveball eventually. 

[Shad]

please no threads til Sunday, lets not jinx this one

[psuhoffman]

Any pattern breakdown continues to look brief if at all.  By the time it hits we might already be tracking a threat on the other side.  

Day 15

5 days later

Next 30 days 

That's how I drew it up in my mind.  I couldn't have created a better pattern if you handed me the magic crayons.  If this pattern doesn't work, during prime climo, during a nino... well it just better.  We aren't going to get a better chance than this to break out of our snow funk.  

[Stormchaserchuck1]

Initial trough is further SW on 18z NAM 84hr vs 12z GFS 90hr

https://ibb.co/6bV088Y

[Stormchaserchuck1]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

[15-30 days]

We aren't going to be a better chance than this to break out of this snow funk.  

Stratosphere warming should hit be hitting a favorable -NAO correlation time around then, too. It's like +80-120dm on the mean at +20-25 days. 

[brooklynwx99]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Any pattern breakdown continues to look brief if at all.  By the time it hits we might already be tracking a threat on the other side.  

Day 15

5 days later

Next 30 days 

That's how I drew it up in my mind.  I couldn't have created a better pattern if you handed me the magic crayons.  If this pattern doesn't work, during prime climo, during a nino... well it just better.  We aren't going to be a better chance than this to break out of this snow funk.  

the nice part is that even if we don't get anything over the next 10-15 days, which is possible, this is what we're likely walking into... sign me up

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, wawarriors4 said:

@RIC Airport posted this in the Richmond/SEVA thread.....

15 out of 70 a huge hit for DC.

isn’t that higher than usually seen?

[psuhoffman]

The key is this.... 

As soon as that canonical pacific configuration sets up any ridge and warmth in the east is living on extremely borrowed time.  By the time it warms up the cold is coming again.  And this time the continent isn't a blow torch so we don't have to waste weeks trying to slowly develop a cold enough profile.  The next pattern reboot should come quick imo.  The MJO is flying in and out of the MC.  This isn't going to be a big problem imo.  

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

Stratosphere warming should hit be hitting a favorable -NAO correlation time around then, too. 

Ok who kidnapped Chuck and replaced him with his less evil twin? 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there is no way in hell that ensemble modeling will pick such a feature out at 10 days 

My question was rhetorical of course. Most here should be aware a smoothed mean won't pick up on those most of the time at that range.