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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming


Jebman
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Where is WW?
Snow maps haven't looked this good on a mean for awhile.

Maybe he’s trying reverse psychology where he doesn’t post every single snow map and it comes to fruition. Hell, weather53 just had their come to jeebus moment above regarding models showing outcome possibilities and not being a forecast in their own right. Ya never know


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I guess we are chipping away at the PDO. I was never a believer in PDO being a leading indicator, but this Winter sure has made a case. I think we are up to -0.6 and still having a tendency to rise, so maybe a more organized +PNA can get going here in the next few weeks. It's also amazing how these El Nino constants hold (warm Dec, good 2nd half of Winter). Let's see if the +PNA can hold through February, because we are coming off the most powerful 6-year constant on record (-PNA) for February ('18-23)

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16 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

This was the depiction for the early Jan event about 4/5?days before we got rain and 50. I hit really excited about an A but turned out further north and west, stronger with excellent cold air scooting out in 24 hours and thus temps over 20 degrees warmer. 

Yea but that event had no "real" cold air locked in and it just vanished as the high way up north quickly left this is a different scene now.

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47 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

jesus christ. the 20th is seriously legit. you have every single synoptic piece here:

  • decaying WB -NAO
  • Arctic antecedent airmass
  • huge 50/50 ULL
  • transient PNA spike from the diving GoAk LP
  • amplifying vort upstream

ecmwf-deterministic-namer-z500_anom-5622400.thumb.png.81d89583f2089966e9d896c989563916.png

 

But....do we/will we get a stj wave moving across which is the final piece?

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1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

But....do we/will we get a stj wave moving across which is the final piece?

there are hints that there could be a vort traversing the southern US. I think this would be northern stream driven overall, but that can absolutely change. better to focus on the overall pattern right now, which is about as good as can be

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22 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

I guess we are chipping away at the PDO. I was never a believer in PDO being a leading indicator, but this Winter sure has made a case. I think we are up to -0.6 and still having a tendency to rise, so maybe a more organized +PNA can get going here in the next few weeks. It's also amazing how these El Nino constants hold (warm Dec, good 2nd half of Winter). Let's see if the +PNA can hold through February, because we are coming off the most powerful 6-year constant on record (-PNA) for February ('18-23)

 

IMG_0420.gif

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14 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

there is no way in hell that ensemble modeling will pick such a feature out at 10 days 

not true at all...it picked up the jan 6 southern jet feature like 2 weeks beforehand!

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