stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, WxUSAF said: Hmmm…liking the euro look at 192 as we approach the 20th time period. The ending is not the greatness we hoped for Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 13 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Wow great run, daytime snow, temps in the 20s. Beautiful. Umm while I see the totals they would be a bit higher no with a higher ratio snow so we may play that opposite game instead of the rain snow line. I think I would much rather play less liquid gets you more snow due to higher snowfall ratios with temps in the 20's and then inject more moisture later for the 1-2' snowstorm we have done this before think Presidents' Day 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, stormtracker said: The ending is not the greatness we hoped for That's what he said 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: The ending is not the greatness we hoped for I see blue! But not as much blue as there could be maybe with that look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Hmmm…liking the euro look at 192 as we approach the 20th time period. That's the period I like best. Doesn't mean I'm not rooting for snow from the 16th or that it has no chance...but the upside if a wave can come along in that period is much higher imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: That's the period I like best. Doesn't mean I'm not rooting for snow from the 16th or that it has no chance...but the upside if a wave can come along in that period is much higher imo. Agreed. This euro run makes me think there’s a path to get two good events as well. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Euro has the same issue as the GFS. Too NS dominant, not an amplified enough STJ wave, late phase. But 24 hours ago none of the guidance had the wave at all so I'm not worried about details yet. Were talking about the wave after the wave after the wave here. We need small adjustments to get a big snow from that look. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: I see blue! But not as much blue as there could be maybe with that look. It was close. A bit discombobulated and came together a tad late. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 IF Tuesday is going to be something, the bar for me is simple - drop enough snow to survive the relative warmth Friday (a bit Thursday too) and keep the grass covered! Then we can get into "the look" period with even deeper cold and lock that snow cover in for a bit... not accounting for any added snow! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 The Big Three are all trending in the right direction. This is not the final solution but a definite sw shift with action by the current leader. My wish in this thread 2 hours ago about Myrtle Beach instead of 275 se NYC seems to be in the cards. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 That's busy. A lot of vorticity interplay going on. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 @psuhoffman I see almost nothing wrong with this map. PNA in a perfect spot, semblance of a 50/50, almost as good as a “look” can get. Even has that trough over Alaska which you typically see before a big snowstorm for the EC. 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said: Check the UKIE out... Thanks Does the coonskin cap get wet and stinky in all this rain? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowLover22 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Miller A incoming on the EPS for the 16th 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said: @psuhoffman I see almost nothing wrong with this map. PNA in a perfect spot, semblance of a 50/50, almost as good as a “look” can get. Even has that trough over Alaska which you typically see before a big snowstorm for the EC. Yea that's been the window with the most upside all along. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Euro has the same issue as the GFS. Too NS dominant, not an amplified enough STJ wave, late phase. But 24 hours ago none of the guidance had the wave at all so I'm not worried about details yet. Were talking about the wave after the wave after the wave here. We need small adjustments to get a big snow from that look. 5 ninas in 7 years made this aspect of the run particularly annoying. Eh, a miss north because of timing wouldn't be a shock...but you'd hope in a niño the STJ would win. Although next week it does seem a bit more suppressed overall, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 49 minutes ago, stormtracker said: hmm, h5 on Euro is totally different than 0z so far Because, they are show every possible outcome I think I’m beginning to understand that models are for fun but not forecasting. This can help alleviate some of my angst and poor interactions at times. When it shows snow and 28 at noon today for Tuesday and then shows rain and 60 at 18z then Neither was a Prediction of an actual high percentage outcome but rather an example of “if a,b,c, d” then such an outcome will follow and 6 hours later show “e,f,g,h” and just keep rotating every 6 hours. im happy to finally get this through my thick head and perhaps I can just sit back and enjoy the myriad of examples that will be forthcoming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Someone else can do the snow maps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: That's busy. A lot of vorticity interplay going on. Busy is complicated...don't like complicated, lol (In general, do the NS waves tend to move faster than SS waves? I notice that you always see the NS flying around like a fast NFL secondary... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: Miller A incoming on the EPS for the 16th This was the depiction for the early Jan event about 4/5?days before we got rain and 50. I hit really excited about an A but turned out further north and west, stronger with excellent cold air scooting out in 24 hours and thus temps over 20 degrees warmer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, WEATHER53 said: This was the depiction for the early Jan event about 4/5?days before we got rain and 50. I hit really excited about an A but turned out further north and west, stronger with excellent cold air scooting out in 24 hours and thus temps over 30 degrees warmer. Different setup. Legit cold air pressing SE, and in place. An overamped wave could still mess it up some for the lowlands. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Snow mean on the eps for just the 17th is 4-5 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Where is WW? Snow maps haven't looked this good on a mean for awhile. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, CAPE said: Where is WW? Snow maps haven't looked this good on a mean for awhile. Pivotal free gives snow depth for EPS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 stronger PV lobe into the 50/50 region makes all the difference 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Where is WW? Snow maps haven't looked this good on a mean for awhile. Looking through his legal briefs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Different setup. Legit cold air pressing SE, and in place. An overamped wave could still mess it up some for the lowlands. And at the same time we need the wave to be amped enough to interact with the NS so it won't come together late either (do I have that right?). Balancing act... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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