stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 some very light snow over us at 162. I think we'd all take it at this point 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Definitely a cold run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, stormtracker said: some very light snow over us at 162. I think we'd all take it at this point I would sign up for 3-4" now and be thrilled. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: WxBell has an uncomplicated 2-4” lol, SV has 4 to 6. I'd bet on the WxBell algo 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Wow great run, daytime snow, temps in the 20s. Beautiful. 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 some very light snow over us at 162. I think we'd all take it at this pointIf it’s still going at 162 it might actually be an uncomplicated 3-5” 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 inches would feel like 20" just to get us back on the board 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Its a big improvement for those of us south of the mason dixon line......trends for the 12z suite have all been favorable in my opinion for the big 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I’ll take at this point. Euro was pretty suppressed with the last system that was supposed to give us snow then ended up way north so I’ll take for now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: Definitely a cold run. Yup, Cold enough for all, even Cape 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: ok, broad (and that's generous area of low pressure developing down off of south carolina at 144 Cant quite figure out how this is gonna go For this year... But really does it matter...look how ridiculously different the H5 is from last run. This is NOT close to a final solution and wont be for a while with all the moving parts behind the bomb system this weekend. So whatever it show's doesn't really matter yet. But I guess the fact that different solutions both lead to snow is something to take away, maybe we have a wider victory path than I thought. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Please (yeah yeah 150 hour OP) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 10:1Kuchera 14 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, CAPE said: lol..the drama. WW would make you think it's a blizzard. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 What if this can phase 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Given the issues up top, this is damn near a perfect run imo. Amplification happens at the right time and not too amped. Like the GFS, improvement in the 50-50 region leading in. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 It’s pretty close to a big dog solution. Can’t quite phase and capture the surface low. Eta…but a cold warning level event over daytime? I’d sign up for this solution right freaking now 28 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 NE MD special 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Definitely an improvement from. 00z!! In my opinion! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Looks like the euro moved closer to the GFS/CMC solutions, but remains slightly more amped but not quite fully phased. Still a low confidence/highly uncertain forecast, but we will have more cold air around this time. That's one thing for certain. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 And a low in the teens Wednesday morning, it will feel like actual winter! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: For this year... But really does it matter...look how ridiculously different the H5 is from last run. This is NOT close to a final solution and wont be for a while with all the moving parts behind the bomb system this weekend. So whatever it show's doesn't really matter yet. But I guess the fact that different solutions both lead to snow is something to take away, maybe we have a wider victory path than I thought. Agreed, but I do like how the models have seem to migrate toward the Euro. Finally the Euro led the way. But yeah, this is in no way how it'll play out for sure. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, baltosquid said: You can see the trending signature on the precip map of the storm amping up off New England. But definitely more juiced overall even before that, hopefully that trend contributes to it coming in a bit more NW over time. Did you say we need a northwest trend around here LOL we do very well with that this final solution will be in central PA. (Edit will be right where we NEED IT!) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It’s pretty close to a big dog solution. Can’t quite phase and capture the surface low. Eta…but a cold warning level event over daytime? I’d sign up for this solution right freaking now We all would. Even HECS Hunter Ji would. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, Terpeast said: Looks like the euro moved closer to the GFS/CMC solutions, but remains slightly more amped but not quite fully phased. Still a low confidence/highly uncertain forecast, but we will have more cold air around this time. That's one thing for certain. Its typically a good sign when the snow maps posted will be Kuchera instead of our usual 10:1. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Junkie Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, Ji said: What if this can phase 5 minutes ago, Ji said: What if this can phase This should earn you a lifetime ban 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, Ji said: What if this can phase 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Given the issues up top, this is damn near a perfect run imo. Amplification happens at the right time and not too amped. Like the GFS, improvement in the 50-50 region leading in. 2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: It’s pretty close to a big dog solution. Can’t quite phase and capture the surface low. I am not reacting too much to anything until we see things settle down run to run. FOr now guidance is still shifting all the vorts around each run. BUT...the one thing I liked most about this euro solution was how it gets a piece of the TPV out ahead of the system creating a more suppressive flow. That opens the door to a more amplified solution that still ends up frozen for us. If that progression ends up the correct one we have wider goalposts. 14 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 jesus christ. the 20th is seriously legit. you have every single synoptic piece here: decaying WB -NAO Arctic antecedent airmass huge 50/50 ULL transient PNA spike from the diving GoAk LP amplifying vort upstream 12 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Hmmm…liking the euro look at 192 as we approach the 20th time period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now