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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming


Jebman
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6 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

ok, broad (and that's generous area of low pressure developing down off of south carolina at 144 Cant quite figure out how this is gonna go

For this year...

415113457_th(2).jpg.5e69c2e9c6e4f99e7b44869dedd2970d.jpg

2018491566_th(1).jpg.d093ba4a99349e99957cf7fb50a5e461.jpg

But really does it matter...look how ridiculously different the H5 is from last run.  This is NOT close to a final solution and wont be for a while with all the moving parts behind the bomb system this weekend.  So whatever it show's doesn't really matter yet.   But I guess the fact that different solutions both lead to snow is something to take away, maybe we have a wider victory path than I thought.  

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Looks like the euro moved closer to the GFS/CMC solutions, but remains slightly more amped but not quite fully phased.

Still a low confidence/highly uncertain forecast, but we will have more cold air around this time. That's one thing for certain.

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2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For this year...

415113457_th(2).jpg.5e69c2e9c6e4f99e7b44869dedd2970d.jpg

2018491566_th(1).jpg.d093ba4a99349e99957cf7fb50a5e461.jpg

But really does it matter...look how ridiculously different the H5 is from last run.  This is NOT close to a final solution and wont be for a while with all the moving parts behind the bomb system this weekend.  So whatever it show's doesn't really matter yet.   But I guess the fact that different solutions both lead to snow is something to take away, maybe we have a wider victory path than I thought.  

Agreed, but I do like how the models have seem to migrate toward the Euro.  Finally the Euro led the way.   But yeah, this is in no way how it'll play out for sure.

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1 hour ago, baltosquid said:

You can see the trending signature on the precip map of the storm amping up off New England. But definitely more juiced overall even before that, hopefully that trend contributes to it coming in a bit more NW over time.

gfs-ens_apcpn24_atl_fh156_trend.gif

Did you say we need a northwest trend around here LOL we do very well with that this final solution will be in central PA. (Edit will be right where we NEED IT!)

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Just now, Terpeast said:

Looks like the euro moved closer to the GFS/CMC solutions, but remains slightly more amped but not quite fully phased.

Still a low confidence/highly uncertain forecast, but we will have more cold air around this time. That's one thing for certain.

Its typically a good sign when the snow maps posted will be Kuchera instead of our usual 10:1.

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4 minutes ago, Ji said:

What if this can phase

a126b193d3e551e32a80ebeced863748.jpg

 

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Given the issues up top, this is damn near a perfect run imo. Amplification happens at the right time and not too amped. Like the GFS, improvement in the 50-50 region leading in.

1705406400-oW7RLLWk204.png

 

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s pretty close to a big dog solution. Can’t quite phase and capture the surface low.

I am not reacting too much to anything until we see things settle down run to run.  FOr now guidance is still shifting all the vorts around each run.  BUT...the one thing I liked most about this euro solution was how it gets a piece of the TPV out ahead of the system creating a more suppressive flow.  That opens the door to a more amplified solution that still ends up frozen for us.  If that progression ends up the correct one we have wider goalposts.  

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