Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

[Interstate]

NE MD special

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Definitely  an improvement from. 00z!! In my opinion!

[Terpeast]

Looks like the euro moved closer to the GFS/CMC solutions, but remains slightly more amped but not quite fully phased.

Still a low confidence/highly uncertain forecast, but we will have more cold air around this time. That's one thing for certain.

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

And a low in the teens Wednesday morning, it will feel like actual winter!

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

For this year...

But really does it matter...look how ridiculously different the H5 is from last run.  This is NOT close to a final solution and wont be for a while with all the moving parts behind the bomb system this weekend.  So whatever it show's doesn't really matter yet.   But I guess the fact that different solutions both lead to snow is something to take away, maybe we have a wider victory path than I thought.  

Agreed, but I do like how the models have seem to migrate toward the Euro.  Finally the Euro led the way.   But yeah, this is in no way how it'll play out for sure.

[Kevin Reilly]

1 hour ago, baltosquid said:

You can see the trending signature on the precip map of the storm amping up off New England. But definitely more juiced overall even before that, hopefully that trend contributes to it coming in a bit more NW over time.

Did you say we need a northwest trend around here LOL we do very well with that this final solution will be in central PA. (Edit will be right where we NEED IT!)

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s pretty close to a big dog solution. Can’t quite phase and capture the surface low.

Eta…but a cold warning level event over daytime? I’d sign up for this solution right freaking now

We all would.  Even HECS Hunter Ji would.

[SnowenOutThere]

Just now, Terpeast said:

Looks like the euro moved closer to the GFS/CMC solutions, but remains slightly more amped but not quite fully phased.

Still a low confidence/highly uncertain forecast, but we will have more cold air around this time. That's one thing for certain.

Its typically a good sign when the snow maps posted will be Kuchera instead of our usual 10:1.

[Weather Junkie]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

What if this can phase

 

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

What if this can phase

This should earn you a lifetime ban

[psuhoffman]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

What if this can phase

 

2 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Given the issues up top, this is damn near a perfect run imo. Amplification happens at the right time and not too amped. Like the GFS, improvement in the 50-50 region leading in.

 

2 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

It’s pretty close to a big dog solution. Can’t quite phase and capture the surface low.

I am not reacting too much to anything until we see things settle down run to run.  FOr now guidance is still shifting all the vorts around each run.  BUT...the one thing I liked most about this euro solution was how it gets a piece of the TPV out ahead of the system creating a more suppressive flow.  That opens the door to a more amplified solution that still ends up frozen for us.  If that progression ends up the correct one we have wider goalposts.  

[brooklynwx99]

jesus christ. the 20th is seriously legit. you have every single synoptic piece here:

• decaying WB -NAO
• Arctic antecedent airmass
• huge 50/50 ULL
• transient PNA spike from the diving GoAk LP
• amplifying vort upstream

 

[WxUSAF]

Hmmm…liking the euro look at 192 as we approach the 20th time period.

[stormtracker]

Just now, WxUSAF said:

Hmmm…liking the euro look at 192 as we approach the 20th time period.

The ending is not the greatness we hoped for

[Kevin Reilly]

13 minutes ago, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said:

Wow great run, daytime snow, temps in the 20s.  Beautiful.

Umm while I see the totals they would be a bit higher no with a higher ratio snow so we may play that opposite game instead of the rain snow line.  I think I would much rather play less liquid gets you more snow due to higher snowfall ratios with temps in the 20's and then inject more moisture later for the 1-2' snowstorm we have done this before think Presidents' Day 2003.

[North Balti Zen]

Just now, stormtracker said:

The ending is not the greatness we hoped for

That's what he said

[WxUSAF]

3 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

The ending is not the greatness we hoped for

I see blue!

But not as much blue as there could be maybe with that look. 

[psuhoffman]

6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

Hmmm…liking the euro look at 192 as we approach the 20th time period.

That's the period I like best.  Doesn't mean I'm not rooting for snow from the 16th or that it has no chance...but the upside if a wave can come along in that period is much higher imo.  

[WxUSAF]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

That's the period I like best.  Doesn't mean I'm not rooting for snow from the 16th or that it has no chance...but the upside if a wave can come along in that period is much higher imo.  

Agreed. This euro run makes me think there’s a path to get two good events as well. 

[psuhoffman]

Euro has the same issue as the GFS.  Too NS dominant, not an amplified enough STJ wave, late phase.  But 24 hours ago none of the guidance had the wave at all so I'm not worried about details yet.  Were talking about the wave after the wave after the wave here.  We need small adjustments to get a big snow from that look.  

[CAPE]

1 minute ago, WxUSAF said:

I see blue!

But not as much blue as there could be maybe with that look. 

It was close.  A bit discombobulated and came together a tad late.

[baltosquid]

IF Tuesday is going to be something, the bar for me is simple - drop enough snow to survive the relative warmth Friday (a bit Thursday too) and keep the grass covered! Then we can get into "the look" period with even deeper cold and lock that snow cover in for a bit... not accounting for any added snow!

[stormy]

The Big Three are all trending  in the right direction.

This is not the final solution but a definite sw shift with action by the current leader.  My wish in this thread 2 hours ago about Myrtle Beach instead of 275 se  NYC seems to be in the cards.

[CAPE]

That's busy. A lot of vorticity interplay going on.

[DownpourDave]

@psuhoffman

I see almost nothing wrong with this map.

 

PNA in a perfect spot, semblance of a 50/50, almost as good as a “look” can get.

 

Even has that trough over Alaska which you typically see before a big snowstorm for the EC.

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said:

Check the UKIE out... 

Thanks

Does the coonskin cap get wet and stinky in all this rain?

[DownpourDave]

[CAPE]

Miller A incoming on the EPS for the 16th

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, SnowLover22 said:

@psuhoffman

I see almost nothing wrong with this map.

 

PNA in a perfect spot, semblance of a 50/50, almost as good as a “look” can get.

 

Even has that trough over Alaska which you typically see before a big snowstorm for the EC.

Yea that's been the window with the most upside all along.  

[Maestrobjwa]

7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Euro has the same issue as the GFS.  Too NS dominant, not an amplified enough STJ wave, late phase.  But 24 hours ago none of the guidance had the wave at all so I'm not worried about details yet.  Were talking about the wave after the wave after the wave here.  We need small adjustments to get a big snow from that look.  

5 ninas in 7 years made this aspect of the run particularly annoying. Eh, a miss north because of timing wouldn't be a shock...but you'd hope in a niño the STJ would win. Although next week it does seem a bit more suppressed overall, no?

[CAPE]