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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming


Jebman
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2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Let’s be Frank though the pattern didn’t change and the delays continue.

we can still get a biggie it couple old fashioned 4-5 inches but a persist cold and snowy winter is not in the cards but may yet assert itself upon 3-3 snowing occasions. 

The pattern did get better. We do not have ideal set ups ever now when we get close to an event. We do not need ideal.. We need cold and then a storm in the southern branch and something to lock the cold in place for the duration of the precipitation event. Keep it simple.. Look for the simple.. And the details will be cleared up when we approach. We do not do complicated well.. If it gets complicated bet in fail. As PSU has said, we always need luck. Sometimes the pattern makes it more likely we will get lucky. We want to see those features get better as we approach storm time.. If they step back on subsequent runs of models, you know your luck is likely to run out. Doesn't mean in the end you don't get lucky, but you better hedge your bets. I am being captain obvious here. Let's get the cold and the cutter off the table and see if some better stuff shows up. That is all we can do. The thing that seems certain for next week is colder air will be around 

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1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said:

The pattern did get better. We do not have ideal set ups ever now when we get close to an event. We do not need ideal.. We need cold and then a storm in the southern branch and something to lock the cold in place for the duration of the precipitation event. Keep it simple.. Look for the simple.. And the details will be cleared up when we approach. We do not do complicated well.. If it gets complicated bet in fail. As PSU has said, we always need luck. Sometimes the pattern makes it more likely we will get lucky. We want to see those features get better as we approach storm time.. If they step back on subsequent runs of models, you know your luck is likely to run out. Doesn't mean in the end you don't get lucky, but you better hedge your bets. I am being captain obvious here. Let's get the cold and the cutter off the table and see if some better stuff shows up. That is all we can do. The thing that seems certain for next week is colder air will be around 

Colder air does appear likely next week so let’s get good things started .

at this moment the pattern Has Not changed, everything is 7-10 days away, and the excess rain in Dec with temps 60-65 has merely become excessive rain and highs 50-55 so far in Jan. I hope that pattern changes, it must,

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6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Colder air does appear likely next week so let’s get good things started .

at this moment the pattern Has Not changed, everything is 7-10 days away, and the excess rain in Dec with temps 60-65 has merely become excessive rain and highs 50-55?so far in Jan. I hope that pattern changes, it must,

Check the UKIE out... 

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49 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

But a bit more interested in the 20th…

That is the one with the best pattern support.  We just need a healthy STJ wave to come along within that 2 day window.  GFS almost pulled it off but the energy balance we needed was flipped on its head...too much NS not enough STJ.  Flip that and it would have been a big storm IMO.  

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2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

hmm, h5 on Euro is totally different than 0z so far

We are days away from a solution. @Terpeastis definitely correct, waiting until Saturday clears. Some guidance still showing a followup wave right on it's tail for the 14th. Until that midwest bomb clears, we just can't know.

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44 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Let’s be frank  though-the pattern didn’t change and the delays continue.

we can still get a biggie orccouple old fashioned 3-5 inches but a persist cold and snowy winter with snow remaining on ground  is not in the cards but may yet assert itself upon 2-3 snowing occasions. 

This is true if you judge every pattern by the duality of "Snow or no snow".  This is subjective of course.  IMO there are many different patterns and frankly most of them don't produce snow.  And even the ones that do dont always produce snow.  We need a good pattern and then we still need to get a little lucky.  If you pull up the mean longwave pattern its most definitely been opposite what it was prior to Xmas since...we just have not got lucky with the snow part of the equation.  Mostly its been too warm.  

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