87storms Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 We're a professional precipitation town...all we need is cold. I'm looking forward to next week's snow event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 8 minutes ago, paulythegun said: I remember these well! before I knew to look at the 500mb stuff (and just stared at surface pressure and precip depictions) these were insanely frustrating. precip would build near the gulf with a low approaching from what appears to be the right angle. then the precip would suddenly disappear at the mountains, leaving DC high and dry....before it EXPLODED back onto the scene when the low bombed off the NJ coast. to a snow weenie with no clue why precip goes where it goes, this is one of the most painful events to witness. please be kind to surface map watchers. Sounds like Boxing Day 2010 (please don't ban me for saying this) 1 1 3 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Sounds like Boxing Day 2010 (please don't ban me for saying this) Sounds like Feb. 1978. Baltimore north gets crushed! DC gets a dusting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 January 20th timeframe looked interesting/kinda close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, 87storms said: We're a professional precipitation town...all we need is cold. I'm looking forward to next week's snow event. I'm here to chase cold, and at least the GFS is consistent with that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 GFS came really close for the 20th. Too much NS not enough STJ. If the STJ wave was a bit more amplified and dominant the setup is there, and guidance is finally starting to see it, for that period. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: GFS came really close for the 20th. Too much NS not enough STJ. If the STJ wave was a bit more amplified and dominant the setup is there, and guidance is finally starting to see it, for that period. My read was it phased a wee bit too late, but at 10 days out it’s really close to something big 0z euro OTOH phased too early (stj wave was a day ahead of gfs). Things are going to shuffle plenty, so best stick with ensembles. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: IMO they are in the process of meeting in the middle from where they both were 48 hours ago. That should end up with us getting some pity flakes while just northeast of us gets a blizzard. We haven't had one of those in a while, time to feel that pain again. I agree. Just not seeing the organization and important features until. It is too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: 1994 and 1988 I can see why we got screwed (50/50 ridging). But that Feb 1977? By all rights we should have gotten buried up to the second floor of our houses. 50/50? Check. NAO? Check. Western ridge? Check. Aleutian low? Check. And yet we got almost nothing. I'm happy to learn that we "got almost nothing" from a professional meteorologist 47 years ago back in Feb of 1977 when we should have "gotton buried up to the second floor of our houses". Some on this board seem to believe that severe snow droughts have only occurred in recent years. 76-77 was very cold with the up-slope mts. to our west getting buried while we often came up frigid and DRY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 What are the thoughts on the depth of cold being shown? Overdone? So far looks prolonged with reinforcement every couple days. Single digits for multiple days out in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 GFS: light to moderate event followed by real cold. Let's go!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 34 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: What do the snow maps look like? 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 After seeing the 12z gfs and cmc. Im thinking they may cave to what the euro had yesterday ! Was a good step in right direction! Woukd be nice to see the good ole days come back where the gfs and cmc caved to the king!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You forgot to put the digital blue on the maps?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I believe the 12z GFS is a step in the right direction. To be simple, more flakes over us. Dear God! No need to be so negative, this is 6 days away. Sure, at 06z next Tuesday I would rather place that developing lp over Myrtle Beach instead of 275 m se of NYC. Give it time and hope for the best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, stormy said: I believe the 12z GFS is a step in the right direction. To be simple, more flakes over us. Dear God! No need to be so negative, this is 6 days away. Sure, at 06z next Tuesday I would rather place that developing lp over Myrtle Beach instead of 275 m se of NYC. Give it time and hope for the best. I agree. Step in right direction for 6 days out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Slow and steady trend on the TPV. And setting up nicely to force the low into the 50/50 spot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 12z GEFS seems…underwhelmed…for Tuesday. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Since 1970 years when DCA had 5”+ of rain in Dec, and where Jan is headed the same way , were 1977-78 and 1986-87. 77-78 were like 4.9+ for both months and 86-87 5” Dec and 7” Jan. Analog precedent rainfall pattern gives hope. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Since 1970 years when DCA had 5”+ of rain in Dec, and where Jan is headed the same way , were 1977-78 and 1986-87. 77-78 were like 4.9+ for both months and 86-87 5” Dec and 7” Jan. Analog precedent rainfall pattern gives hope. Anything pre 2010 needs to account for CC when doing comparisons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: 12z GEFS seems…underwhelmed…for Tuesday. But a bit more interested in the 20th… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 You can see the trending signature on the precip map of the storm amping up off New England. But definitely more juiced overall even before that, hopefully that trend contributes to it coming in a bit more NW over time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said: Anything pre 2010 needs to account for CC when doing comparisons. What I generally do is add 2-3F for 850s and surface. It will make some rain but that 2-3 gets overcome when set up is solid Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Let’s be frank though-the pattern didn’t change and the delays continue. we can still get a biggie orccouple old fashioned 3-5 inches but a persist cold and snowy winter with snow remaining on ground is not in the cards but may yet assert itself upon 2-3 snowing occasions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, LeesburgWx said: What do the snow maps look like? They are maps that show predicted snowfall accumulations, but that's not important right now. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 33 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: You forgot to put the digital blue on the maps?? That’s because there is none 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, WinterWxLuvr said: That’s because there is none Do you have anything blue?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Here we go. Days of Our Lives: Will the Euro cave? Will it hold? Will it get better? Will Will show 1000 hour maps? Stay Tuned 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Didn't realize it initially but GEPS has some real cross polar flow in the picture for the 20th, ridiculous cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, ravensrule said: Do you have anything blue?. Nope 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now