psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, seems to be the theme. Storm getting together, but too late for us. Euro was still better for us tho I know, and every once in a while things don't follow the "normal" outcomes, but we both know how that kind of synoptic progression with a late phase system starting to amplify right at out latitude usually works out for us. But its been so long since we had any snow we also know that everyone is going to latch on and hug any run that shows snow like their life depended on it only making the trauma that much worse when what is most likely coming happens. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Trend = Friend. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I know, and every once in a while things don't follow the "normal" outcomes, but we both know how that kind of synoptic progression with a late phase system starting to amplify right at out latitude usually works out for us. But its been so long since we had any snow we also know that everyone is going to latch on and hug any run that shows snow like their life depended on it only making the trauma that much worse when what is most likely coming happens. lol yesterday you were worried about the euro showing an early phase. Anyway...nobody is expecting a hecs from this storm. We would be happy with 2 inches. We are not like you where you get 50 inches a season without having to blink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Improvement over Atlantic Canada. Less amplified wave probably has a lot to do with that. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 3 minutes ago, Ji said: please take a break from the board for 12 hours I can leave and you can start 17 new threads and it won't make a difference. None of this controls the weather. You know I'm right. Maybe things reverse today, but even the euro has been trending towards a messier later phase with a more progressive wave initially. We are pretty far southwest for that to work out, places northeast of us have way more time for a system to come together. We've played this game so many times, you know exactly what the most likely outcome is. IMO we want to see 2 things...we need an earlier phase so the system is organized by our latitude not just getting its act together...but then we also need a better trend in the 50/50 space or one of those SW's in the flow rotating around the main vortex to create some confluence on top to prevent that earlier phased system from cutting. If we get both of those trends we can get this to work. Late phase, late development, storm misses us mostly to the northeast. Early phase, no confluence storm cuts. We need both those things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Canadian got better too. That’s really all we need. Small steps forward as the time gets closer and the data gets refreshed. Enough of this looks good at 7 and then gradually moves away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 nice snow on the canadian hours 144-156 at least things are improving at this range, ill take it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 4 minutes ago, Ji said: lol yesterday you were worried about the euro showing an early phase. Anyway...nobody is expecting a hecs from this storm. We would be happy with 2 inches. We are not like you where you get 50 inches a season without having to blink I've had 50" one time in the last 8 years. But ok. I am NOT talking about what we need to get a HECS, that's not on the table with this setup. I am talking what we need to get a decent snow. 3-6" maybe. Not sure what you mean about yesterday, I've always said we needed an earlier phase but also a better outcome in the 50/50 space to offset, without that our window is very very narrow needing to thread the needle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Now that we've cleared the first cutter, we're seeing the models trend towards an outcome (whatever that may be, for better or worse). Still have the next power cutter up before our period of interest, so we're probably not seeing the final solution on any of the models yet. Again, for better or for worse. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: IMO they are in the process of meeting in the middle from where they both were 48 hours ago. That should end up with us getting some pity flakes while just northeast of us gets a blizzard. We haven't had one of those in a while, time to feel that pain again. I remember these well! before I knew to look at the 500mb stuff (and just stared at surface pressure and precip depictions) these were insanely frustrating. precip would build near the gulf with a low approaching from what appears to be the right angle. then the precip would suddenly disappear at the mountains, leaving DC high and dry....before it EXPLODED back onto the scene when the low bombed off the NJ coast. to a snow weenie with no clue why precip goes where it goes, this is one of the most painful events to witness. please be kind to surface map watchers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Jeez were nearly a week out with a storm in between and you’d think snow miser just came through and told us he has cancer and left his estate to heat miser. We’ll see what happens but at this point I won’t look a positive trend in the mouth 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 What do the snow maps look like? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 We're a professional precipitation town...all we need is cold. I'm looking forward to next week's snow event. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 8 minutes ago, paulythegun said: I remember these well! before I knew to look at the 500mb stuff (and just stared at surface pressure and precip depictions) these were insanely frustrating. precip would build near the gulf with a low approaching from what appears to be the right angle. then the precip would suddenly disappear at the mountains, leaving DC high and dry....before it EXPLODED back onto the scene when the low bombed off the NJ coast. to a snow weenie with no clue why precip goes where it goes, this is one of the most painful events to witness. please be kind to surface map watchers. Sounds like Boxing Day 2010 (please don't ban me for saying this) 1 1 3 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Sounds like Boxing Day 2010 (please don't ban me for saying this) Sounds like Feb. 1978. Baltimore north gets crushed! DC gets a dusting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 January 20th timeframe looked interesting/kinda close? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 4 minutes ago, 87storms said: We're a professional precipitation town...all we need is cold. I'm looking forward to next week's snow event. I'm here to chase cold, and at least the GFS is consistent with that. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 GFS came really close for the 20th. Too much NS not enough STJ. If the STJ wave was a bit more amplified and dominant the setup is there, and guidance is finally starting to see it, for that period. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: GFS came really close for the 20th. Too much NS not enough STJ. If the STJ wave was a bit more amplified and dominant the setup is there, and guidance is finally starting to see it, for that period. My read was it phased a wee bit too late, but at 10 days out it’s really close to something big 0z euro OTOH phased too early (stj wave was a day ahead of gfs). Things are going to shuffle plenty, so best stick with ensembles. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 39 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: IMO they are in the process of meeting in the middle from where they both were 48 hours ago. That should end up with us getting some pity flakes while just northeast of us gets a blizzard. We haven't had one of those in a while, time to feel that pain again. I agree. Just not seeing the organization and important features until. It is too late Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: 1994 and 1988 I can see why we got screwed (50/50 ridging). But that Feb 1977? By all rights we should have gotten buried up to the second floor of our houses. 50/50? Check. NAO? Check. Western ridge? Check. Aleutian low? Check. And yet we got almost nothing. I'm happy to learn that we "got almost nothing" from a professional meteorologist 47 years ago back in Feb of 1977 when we should have "gotton buried up to the second floor of our houses". Some on this board seem to believe that severe snow droughts have only occurred in recent years. 76-77 was very cold with the up-slope mts. to our west getting buried while we often came up frigid and DRY. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 What are the thoughts on the depth of cold being shown? Overdone? So far looks prolonged with reinforcement every couple days. Single digits for multiple days out in the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 GFS: light to moderate event followed by real cold. Let's go!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 34 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: What do the snow maps look like? 19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 After seeing the 12z gfs and cmc. Im thinking they may cave to what the euro had yesterday ! Was a good step in right direction! Woukd be nice to see the good ole days come back where the gfs and cmc caved to the king!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: You forgot to put the digital blue on the maps?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 I believe the 12z GFS is a step in the right direction. To be simple, more flakes over us. Dear God! No need to be so negative, this is 6 days away. Sure, at 06z next Tuesday I would rather place that developing lp over Myrtle Beach instead of 275 m se of NYC. Give it time and hope for the best. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 1 minute ago, stormy said: I believe the 12z GFS is a step in the right direction. To be simple, more flakes over us. Dear God! No need to be so negative, this is 6 days away. Sure, at 06z next Tuesday I would rather place that developing lp over Myrtle Beach instead of 275 m se of NYC. Give it time and hope for the best. I agree. Step in right direction for 6 days out!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Slow and steady trend on the TPV. And setting up nicely to force the low into the 50/50 spot. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 12z GEFS seems…underwhelmed…for Tuesday. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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