CAPE Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 EPS and GEPS have a signal for low pressure off the NC coast for the 16th. Difficult to see any indication on the GEFS. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Seeing hints of a storm along the east coast for the 20th, most notably on the EPS. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, CAPE said: Seeing hints of a storm along the east coast for the 20th, most notably on the EPS. You and I have have different perspectives on this for geographic reasons lol... but I really don't like vertical tracks. Off the coast or not, they are awful on the nerves leading in and our geography/latitude typically fights my yard. These storms can pop of course but there's a long history of scrapes and whiffs in my memory banks. ONE of these days... oh boy I tell ya... and it's going to be awesome if it happens while I'm still alive... a BIG FAT stripe of snow from Nashville TN to just south of Cape May will happen again... some day.... lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: You and I have have different perspectives on this for geographic reasons lol... but I really don't like vertical tracks. Off the coast or not, they are awful on the nerves leading in and our geography/latitude typically fights my yard. These storms can pop of course but there's a long history of scrapes and whiffs in my memory banks. ONE of these days... oh boy I tell ya... and it's going to be awesome if it happens while I'm still alive... a BIG FAT stripe of snow from Nashville TN to just south of Cape May will happen again... some day.... lol some how I remember that being a thing..a Chatanooga choo choo storm...like the Alberta Clipper, Saskatchewan screamer, Manitoba Mauler ect...in that vein. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, BristowWx said: some how I remember that being a thing..a Chatanooga choo choo storm...like the Alberta Clipper, Saskatchewan screamer, Manitoba Mauler ect...in that vein. It's probably more of an artifact of storm track. The stripes can come from different streams but they all look the same. When you see a stripe aligned between 8-9am and 2-3pm, we're hittin on all cylinders here. Those are our cold snows too. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bubbler86 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 19 minutes ago, BristowWx said: some how I remember that being a thing..a Chatanooga choo choo storm...like the Alberta Clipper, Saskatchewan screamer, Manitoba Mauler ect...in that vein. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Here's @CAPE's followup wave showing up overnight Saturday. It's the NAVGEM tho, but at least one of the models picked up on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Last night's Euro has heart break written all over it for 40 south. Late developing storm that doesn't get its act together till its at our latitude. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 06z. Gfs is actually better then 00z to my untrained eye babysteps!Without a decent 50/50 in this setup you strengthen the low too much its gonna cut or develop too late, not much room for improvement unless the wave is really flat but then you lose precip. Look at the difference in the Atlantic. The second time period is a much more conducive setup for mid Atlantic. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 17 minutes ago, Heisy said: Without a decent 50/50 in this setup you strengthen the low too much its gonna cut or develop too late, not much room for improvement unless the wave is really flat but then you lose precip. Look at the difference in the Atlantic. The second time period is a much more conducive setup for mid Atlantic. . Agreed. The second time period looks much better on paper. But honestly, how long are we going to continue playing this game ie "Well, this storm didn't turn out being the one because (fill in the blank) came along unmodeled and mucked it up....BUT the next period REALLY is the one that has everything going for it"? I'm not saying that in anger or jest towards anyone. This is more about the wx pattern in general and just throwing my hands up saying wtf do we need to do anymore? I'm just flabbergasted that every threat window that comes along past few years has had something minor come along and ruin it. This next window every HL telleconnection is lined up but watch the stj turn off just during that window with no wave to interact. It's always something. That's my frustrated rant. Thanks for listening. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just checking in… the mood doesn’t seem great in here does it? ETA I think the gfs moved closer to the euro this time. With one cutter out of the way, maybe the models are focusing on things better down the road. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Just checking in… the mood doesn’t seem great in here does it? ETA I think the gfs moved closer to the euro this time. With one cutter out of the way, maybe the models are focusing on things better down the road. I dont think they will really zero in on a solution till the second cutter goes thru. In my opinion 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: I dont think they will really zero in on a solution till the second cutter goes thru. In my opinion Yeah I wouldn’t be surprised if models shift a bit again once the 2nd one passes 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Agreed. The second time period looks much better on paper. But honestly, how long are we going to continue playing this game ie "Well, this storm didn't turn out being the one because (fill in the blank) came along unmodeled and mucked it up....BUT the next period REALLY is the one that has everything going for it"? I'm not saying that in anger or jest towards anyone. This is more about the wx pattern in general and just throwing my hands up saying wtf do we need to do anymore? I'm just flabbergasted that every threat window that comes along past few years has had something minor come along and ruin it. This next window every HL telleconnection is lined up but watch the stj turn off just during that window with no wave to interact. It's always something. That's my frustrated rant. Thanks for listening. we still have 20 days in the month left, and you guys can certainly get hit by something in the meantime. but just for the sake of argument, here are a few months where BWI got a trace or an inch of snowfall... for the whole month. surprising, no? and these were all like 30-40 years ago, too. sometimes you just get screwed. I know everyone wants to have a reason for why everything happens, but it's as simple as that sometimes. Feb 1977 is especially lol-worthy lmao 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 On 1/9/2024 at 6:04 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Not sure WW even realizes it but that EPS 6hr precip and 850 map from 0z was absolutely screaming for a smoothed over blend of indiv ens. Talk about a jump. 6z gfs took a big step as well. Awaiting the gefs. Time to track...again. let's ride. Let's go, cold finally in the Midwest with snowpack...get that cutter out of the way late week and I believe it's game on for us. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 caveats that a snow mean isn't everything, etc etc, but EPS has been going the wrong way for the 16th/17th. Still a ways to go. lot of suppressed stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdood Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 39 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: we still have 20 days in the month left, and you guys can certainly get hit by something in the meantime. but just for the sake of argument, here are a few months where BWI got a trace or an inch of snowfall... for the whole month. surprising, no? and these were all like 30-40 years ago, too. sometimes you just get screwed. I know everyone wants to have a reason for why everything happens, but it's as simple as that sometimes. Feb 1977 is especially lol-worthy lmao thanks for the reality check. some posters in here need this. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: we still have 20 days in the month left, and you guys can certainly get hit by something in the meantime. but just for the sake of argument, here are a few months where BWI got a trace or an inch of snowfall... for the whole month. surprising, no? and these were all like 30-40 years ago, too. sometimes you just get screwed. I know everyone wants to have a reason for why everything happens, but it's as simple as that sometimes. Feb 1977 is especially lol-worthy lmao 1994 and 1988 I can see why we got screwed (50/50 ridging). But that Feb 1977? By all rights we should have gotten buried up to the second floor of our houses. 50/50? Check. NAO? Check. Western ridge? Check. Aleutian low? Check. And yet we got almost nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Yeah I wouldn’t be surprised if models shift a bit again once the 2nd one passes Agreed!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 23 minutes ago, Terpeast said: 1994 and 1988 I can see why we got screwed (50/50 ridging). But that Feb 1977? By all rights we should have gotten buried up to the second floor of our houses. 50/50? Check. NAO? Check. Western ridge? Check. Aleutian low? Check. And yet we got almost nothing. February 24 of that month when 0.58" fell at BWI was the only day with more than 0.03" of precipitation. https://weatherspark.com/h/m/147101/1977/2/Historical-Weather-in-February-1977-at-Baltimore-Washington-International-Airport-Maryland-United-States 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, Terpeast said: Just checking in… the mood doesn’t seem great in here does it? Can't figure out why 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, NorthArlington101 said: caveats that a snow mean isn't everything, etc etc, but EPS has been going the wrong way for the 16th/17th. Still a ways to go. lot of suppressed stuff is this what you were looking at? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 45 minutes ago, Terpeast said: 1994 and 1988 I can see why we got screwed (50/50 ridging). But that Feb 1977? By all rights we should have gotten buried up to the second floor of our houses. 50/50? Check. NAO? Check. Western ridge? Check. Aleutian low? Check. And yet we got almost nothing. DRY. BONE DRY. There was absolutely no precip at all until Feb 24 and by then the pattern broke down and there was a western trough eastern ridge and it was a cutter. That mean was from the first 20 days of the month and it's why we don't actually want a huge PNA ridge if we have that level of blocking...it was dry for weeks on end. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Buzzword for the week? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 not sure how icon gets here because of all the panels missing but this looks kind of euro like? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, Ji said: not sure how icon gets here because of all the panels missing but this looks kind of euro like? Here is a better version... PW now has the ICON https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2024011012&fh=6&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc= Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, Interstate said: Here is a better version... PW now has the ICON https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php?m=icon&p=prateptype_cat_icon-imp&rh=2024011012&fh=6&r=us_ma&dpdt=&mc= Only out to 114 on mine Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 10 minutes ago, Ji said: not sure how icon gets here because of all the panels missing but this looks kind of euro like? Yeah it should be interesting to see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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