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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming


Jebman
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4 hours ago, Heisy said:

GEFS vs 18z, that’s not what we want to see at 50/50 region

3ed386417deede641bb29f9c7be761e3.gif


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Not sure it matters but a few times this season we've counted on a 50/50 look at range to help compress the flow and anchor in some relative cold and it either came in much weaker and sheared at game time or zipped on thru the 50/50 domain. So that feature has in fact been a thorn in our side already. Again, not sure what we can glean from past events, just noting it.

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personally, if I were to put my eggs in one basket, it would definitely be for the 19-20th. everything is there synoptically, just a matter of if a wave can pop or not... all the features are there, though - decaying WB -NAO, Rockies ridge, 50/50 confluence from the TPV

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5708800.thumb.png.04ffd809f671a38be8760738703f560b.png

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31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

personally, if I were to put my eggs in one basket, it would definitely be for the 19-20th. everything is there synoptically, just a matter of if a wave can pop or not... all the features are there, though - decaying WB -NAO, Rockies ridge, 50/50 confluence from the TPV

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5708800.thumb.png.04ffd809f671a38be8760738703f560b.png

We have a winnah.

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Analogs are loading up for the d8-11 period. Recent notable dates are Jan 03, 04, and 96. 2003 was wintry but not much precip. Jan 2004 was an inch away from epic. Jan 96 showing up as well but opposite enso so theres that. Nearly all analogs center during periods of winter wx. Majority light/mixy but some impressive dates either way. 

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54 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

personally, if I were to put my eggs in one basket, it would definitely be for the 19-20th. everything is there synoptically, just a matter of if a wave can pop or not... all the features are there, though - decaying WB -NAO, Rockies ridge, 50/50 confluence from the TPV

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5708800.thumb.png.04ffd809f671a38be8760738703f560b.png

 Looks very nice!!! Im hoping we can get a decent storm in this pattern

 Hate to see it be a waste!!

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Just now, Bob Chill said:

Analogs are loading up for the d8-11 period. Recent notable dates are Jan 03, 04, and 96. 2003 was wintry but not much precip. Jan 2004 was an inch away from epic. Jan 96 showing up as well but opposite enso so theres that. Nearly all analogs center during periods of winter wx. Majority light/mixy but some impressive dates either way. 

Looks promising to me ill admit... but. Been many times its looked good 8+ days out only to change as we get closer

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