Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

[Ji]

Canadian ensembles for the cape 19-20 window

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[Ralph Wiggum]

4 hours ago, Heisy said:

GEFS vs 18z, that’s not what we want to see at 50/50 region




.

Not sure it matters but a few times this season we've counted on a 50/50 look at range to help compress the flow and anchor in some relative cold and it either came in much weaker and sheared at game time or zipped on thru the 50/50 domain. So that feature has in fact been a thorn in our side already. Again, not sure what we can glean from past events, just noting it.

[brooklynwx99]

personally, if I were to put my eggs in one basket, it would definitely be for the 19-20th. everything is there synoptically, just a matter of if a wave can pop or not... all the features are there, though - decaying WB -NAO, Rockies ridge, 50/50 confluence from the TPV

[Jebman]

31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

personally, if I were to put my eggs in one basket, it would definitely be for the 19-20th. everything is there synoptically, just a matter of if a wave can pop or not... all the features are there, though - decaying WB -NAO, Rockies ridge, 50/50 confluence from the TPV

We have a winnah.

[winter_warlock]

06z. Gfs is actually better then 00z to my untrained eye  babysteps!

[Bob Chill]

Analogs are loading up for the d8-11 period. Recent notable dates are Jan 03, 04, and 96. 2003 was wintry but not much precip. Jan 2004 was an inch away from epic. Jan 96 showing up as well but opposite enso so theres that. Nearly all analogs center during periods of winter wx. Majority light/mixy but some impressive dates either way. 

[winter_warlock]

54 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

personally, if I were to put my eggs in one basket, it would definitely be for the 19-20th. everything is there synoptically, just a matter of if a wave can pop or not... all the features are there, though - decaying WB -NAO, Rockies ridge, 50/50 confluence from the TPV

 Looks very nice!!! Im hoping we can get a decent storm in this pattern

 Hate to see it be a waste!!

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Analogs are loading up for the d8-11 period. Recent notable dates are Jan 03, 04, and 96. 2003 was wintry but not much precip. Jan 2004 was an inch away from epic. Jan 96 showing up as well but opposite enso so theres that. Nearly all analogs center during periods of winter wx. Majority light/mixy but some impressive dates either way. 

Looks promising to me ill admit... but. Been many times its looked good 8+ days out only to change as we get closer

[winter_warlock]

4 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Euro ain't budging...just changing it up here and there, but continues with the storm idea.  Like Matt said, it pulls it together just past our latitude and we get in the coma head

  Thats all we can ask for  6 days out

[Duca892]

GFS 6z is cooking. Nice to just have something there at the moment 

[WxUSAF]

DT’s thoughts. In a shocking and uncharacteristic twist, he favors the euro over the gfs.

[TSSN+]

3 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

DT’s thoughts. In a shocking and uncharacteristic twist, he favors the euro over the gfs.

Def a keeper if gfs end up being right for a hot take lol 

[CAPE]

EPS and GEPS have a signal for low pressure off the NC coast for the 16th. Difficult to see any indication on the GEFS.

[CAPE]

Seeing hints of a storm along the east coast for the 20th, most notably on the EPS.

[Bob Chill]

3 minutes ago, CAPE said:

Seeing hints of a storm along the east coast for the 20th, most notably on the EPS.

You and I have have different perspectives on this for geographic reasons lol... but I really don't like vertical tracks. Off the coast or not, they are awful on the nerves leading in and our geography/latitude typically fights my yard. These storms can pop of course but there's a long history of scrapes and whiffs in my memory banks. ONE of these days... oh boy I tell ya... and it's going to be awesome if it happens while I'm still alive... a BIG FAT stripe of snow from Nashville TN to just south of Cape May will happen again... some day.... lol

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, Bob Chill said:

You and I have have different perspectives on this for geographic reasons lol... but I really don't like vertical tracks. Off the coast or not, they are awful on the nerves leading in and our geography/latitude typically fights my yard. These storms can pop of course but there's a long history of scrapes and whiffs in my memory banks. ONE of these days... oh boy I tell ya... and it's going to be awesome if it happens while I'm still alive... a BIG FAT stripe of snow from Nashville TN to just south of Cape May will happen again... some day.... lol

some how I remember that being a thing..a Chatanooga choo choo storm...like the Alberta Clipper, Saskatchewan screamer, Manitoba Mauler ect...in that vein.  

[Bob Chill]

7 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

some how I remember that being a thing..a Chatanooga choo choo storm...like the Alberta Clipper, Saskatchewan screamer, Manitoba Mauler ect...in that vein.  

It's probably more of an artifact of storm track. The stripes can come from different streams but they all look the same. When you see a stripe aligned between 8-9am and 2-3pm, we're hittin on all cylinders here. Those are our cold snows too. 

[Bubbler86]

19 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

some how I remember that being a thing..a Chatanooga choo choo storm...like the Alberta Clipper, Saskatchewan screamer, Manitoba Mauler ect...in that vein.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

Here's @CAPE's followup wave showing up overnight Saturday. It's the NAVGEM tho, but at least one of the models picked up on it.

[Chris78]

Last night's Euro has heart break written all over it for 40 south. Late developing storm that doesn't get its act together till its at our latitude. 

 

[Heisy]

06z. Gfs is actually better then 00z to my untrained eye  babysteps!

Without a decent 50/50 in this setup you strengthen the low too much its gonna cut or develop too late, not much room for improvement unless the wave is really flat but then you lose precip.

Look at the difference in the Atlantic. The second time period is a much more conducive setup for mid Atlantic.



.

[Ralph Wiggum]

17 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Without a decent 50/50 in this setup you strengthen the low too much its gonna cut or develop too late, not much room for improvement unless the wave is really flat but then you lose precip.

Look at the difference in the Atlantic. The second time period is a much more conducive setup for mid Atlantic.



.

Agreed. The second time period looks much better on paper. But honestly, how long are we going to continue playing this game ie "Well, this storm didn't turn out being the one because (fill in the blank) came along unmodeled and mucked it up....BUT the next period REALLY is the one that has everything going for it"?

I'm not saying that in anger or jest towards anyone. This is more about the wx pattern in general and just throwing my hands up saying wtf do we need to do anymore?  I'm just flabbergasted that every threat window that comes along past few years has had something minor come along and ruin it. This next window every HL telleconnection is lined up but watch the stj turn off just during that window with no wave to interact. It's always something.

That's my frustrated rant. Thanks for listening.

[Terpeast]

Just checking in… the mood doesn’t seem great in here does it?

ETA I think the gfs moved closer to the euro this time. With one cutter out of the way, maybe the models are focusing on things better down the road. 

[winter_warlock]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Just checking in… the mood doesn’t seem great in here does it?

ETA I think the gfs moved closer to the euro this time. With one cutter out of the way, maybe the models are focusing on things better down the road. 

 I dont think they will really zero in on a solution till the second cutter goes thru. In my opinion 

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, winter_warlock said:

 I dont think they will really zero in on a solution till the second cutter goes thru. In my opinion 

Yeah I wouldn’t be surprised if models shift a bit again once the 2nd one passes

[brooklynwx99]

26 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Agreed. The second time period looks much better on paper. But honestly, how long are we going to continue playing this game ie "Well, this storm didn't turn out being the one because (fill in the blank) came along unmodeled and mucked it up....BUT the next period REALLY is the one that has everything going for it"?

I'm not saying that in anger or jest towards anyone. This is more about the wx pattern in general and just throwing my hands up saying wtf do we need to do anymore?  I'm just flabbergasted that every threat window that comes along past few years has had something minor come along and ruin it. This next window every HL telleconnection is lined up but watch the stj turn off just during that window with no wave to interact. It's always something.

That's my frustrated rant. Thanks for listening.

we still have 20 days in the month left, and you guys can certainly get hit by something in the meantime. but just for the sake of argument, here are a few months where BWI got a trace or an inch of snowfall... for the whole month. surprising, no? and these were all like 30-40 years ago, too. sometimes you just get screwed. I know everyone wants to have a reason for why everything happens, but it's as simple as that sometimes. Feb 1977 is especially lol-worthy lmao

[WinterWxLuvr]

[Solution Man]

On 1/9/2024 at 6:04 AM, Ralph Wiggum said:

Not sure WW even realizes it but that EPS 6hr precip and 850 map from 0z was absolutely screaming for a smoothed over blend of indiv ens. Talk about a jump. 6z gfs took a big step as well. Awaiting the gefs.

Time to track...again. let's ride.

Let's go, cold finally in the Midwest with snowpack...get that cutter out of the way late week and I believe it's game on for us.

[NorthArlington101]

caveats that a snow mean isn't everything, etc etc, but EPS has been going the wrong way for the 16th/17th. Still a ways to go.

lot of suppressed stuff

[Wxdood]

39 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

we still have 20 days in the month left, and you guys can certainly get hit by something in the meantime. but just for the sake of argument, here are a few months where BWI got a trace or an inch of snowfall... for the whole month. surprising, no? and these were all like 30-40 years ago, too. sometimes you just get screwed. I know everyone wants to have a reason for why everything happens, but it's as simple as that sometimes. Feb 1977 is especially lol-worthy lmao

thanks for the reality check.  some posters in here need this.