Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

[Fozz]

Just now, nj2va said:

There’s a snow futility, will it ever snow, a CC forum, and panic room - I think there’s plenty of places to complain/post about the elephant.  

Oops… I thought this was the panic thread. My bad. I’ll keep the climate talk there.

[Maestrobjwa]

Just now, nj2va said:

There’s a snow futility, will it ever snow, a CC forum, and panic room - I think there’s plenty of places to complain/post about the elephant.  

Here's the issue though: It's becoming increasingly more difficult not to talk about it as it has become intertwined with our discussion of the medium/long range. Like if something that should work doesn't (and it used to), that convo is gonna leak in here. Hard to avoid, imo

[cbmclean]

We are approaching the nadir of the morale wave.

[nj2va]

2 minutes ago, Fozz said:

Oops… I thought this was the panic thread. My bad. I’ll keep the climate talk there.

Sometimes hard to tell the difference 

[stormtracker]

It's time.  Come on GFS, do something. 

[Ji]

It's time.  Come on GFS, do something. 

Until the gfs is aboard the euro solutions will just be trash

[TSSN+]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

It's time.  Come on GFS, do something. 

 

[stormtracker]

4 minutes ago, Ji said:

Until the gfs is aboard the euro solutions will just be trash

Why do you think I'm pulling for it to get on board. I can't even get past the "interested" phase if the GFS isn't on board.  But as some pros have said, we may not see a shift either way on either model until this next cutter passes. 

[Ji]

Why do you think I'm pulling for it to get on board. I can't even get past the "interested" phase if the GFS isn't on board.  But as some pros have said, we may not see a shift either way on either model until this next cutter passes. 

Please for once let the European advanced physics actually benefit us. It’s deadly when its in dr no mode

[winter_warlock]

Just now, Ji said:

Please for once let the European advanced physics actually benefit us. It’s deadly when its in dr no mode

  Amen to that !!!    There was a time. Years ago when the euro model was known as the king!!  And other models usually caved too it !  But not so much in recent years

[Heisy]

Early on, for better or worse there gonna be some changes on the GFS


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[Ji]

Early on, for better or worse there gonna be some changes on the GFS


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Can’t get worse so….

[Heisy]

Remember it could always be worst, check out the difference on the snow map for this event just 3 days out lol





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[psuhoffman]

21 minutes ago, Ji said:

Yes people were talking about global warming as much then as now.

But if you looked within the trends bad signs were showing then. We do run in cycles for snow. But from 2000 to 2016 we were in a congruence of a favorable Atlantic and pacific pattern.  Places north of us were getting way above normal snow. But we actually were below avg (by the historical numbers) during that stretch.

That period looks like Valhalla compared to recently. But it was bad if you compared it to previous periods where we got everything to line up. Look at the mean pattern from that period!

Warning sirens should have been going off when places to our north were running 150% of normal snow yet we were BELOW AVG even in that freaking amazing pattern for that period!  We should have had another period like the late 50s-60s then!  
 

So now we’re in a truly bad cycle with a mean long wave pattern that isn’t good. And in the past this would have been bad but just like the last good period wasn’t as good, this bad period is WORSE!  
 

We will get to another better cycle eventually. At some point the PDO and AMO will flip again. But the question is how much will our ability to snow have degraded by then?   How muted will that next cycle be. Is assuredly will be better than this. But does it even get back to that 2000-2016 level?  I don’t know. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Can’t get worse so….

 

2 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Remember it could always be worst

[Terpeast]

10 minutes ago, Heisy said:

Remember it could always be worst, check out the difference on the snow map for this event just 3 days out lol





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See, this is what I mean by the models not being able to “see” past the cutters. We have one in progress that’s powerful enough to induce planetary wave breaking , and its interfering with the usual skill level of models even 3 days out. 

It’s like standing on a beach and normally, you can see a couple of sets out towards the horizon that’ll bring plenty of fun rides to surfers in their lineup within a few minutes. 

But if an incoming wave is so high that it blocks your view of the horizon, you can’t see what’s coming until after that wave breaks. Similar idea. 

[psuhoffman]

29 minutes ago, Ji said:

The only person who I remember badgering pro Mets was howie lol. I think most of were cautiously optimistic in the western burbs but knew the risks

The nam in its wheelhouse had a run giving us snow 24 hours before the storm!

When I started planning to go to Vermont when it was 3-4 days away that should have tipped you off how I really felt. Not just for DC but even my area!  

[psuhoffman]

28 minutes ago, nj2va said:

There’s a snow futility, will it ever snow, a CC forum, and panic room - I think there’s plenty of places to complain/post about the elephant.  

You’re right we should have been talking about all the snow we’ve been getting instead. 

[stormtracker]

Still looking like an anafront type deal on the GFS.  

[stormtracker]

On to the Euro!  Will it cave?

[Ji]

But if you looked within the trends bad signs were showing then. We do run in cycles for snow. But from 2000 to 2016 we were in a congruence of a favorable Atlantic and pacific pattern.  Places north of us were getting way above normal snow. But we actually were below avg (by the historical numbers) during that stretch.
That period looks like Valhalla compared to recently. But it was bad if you compared it to previous periods where we got everything to line up. Look at the mean pattern from that period!

Warning sirens should have been going off when places to our north were running 150% of normal snow yet we were BELOW AVG even in that freaking amazing pattern for that period!  We should have had another period like the late 50s-60s then!  
 
So now we’re in a truly bad cycle with a mean long wave pattern that isn’t good. And in the past this would have been bad but just like the last good period wasn’t as good, this bad period is WORSE!  
 
We will get to another better cycle eventually. At some point the PDO and AMO will flip again. But the question is how much will our ability to snow have degraded by then?   How muted will that next cycle be. Is assuredly will be better than this. But does it even get back to that 2000-2016 level?  I don’t know. 

Not sure if it’s due to climate change but we had some incredibly bad luck in that window with miller bs…Dec 2000 March 2001 Jan 2005…Boxing Day where nyc would get 30 and we would get zero even if we were cold enough. We also had numerous coastals that we were too far west! That’s just bad luck!

[NorthArlington101]

Still looking like an anafront type deal on the GFS.  

DC and BWI break an inch verbatim #winning

[Ji]

On to the Euro!  Will it cave?

Of course

[Heisy]

Gfs vs 12z euro, still way different. Not encouraged that the cmc and icon look more like the GFS. Maybe the euro caves tonight?




.

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Of course

If it doesn't, then what do we do?

[Ji]

If it doesn't, then what do we do?

Give the gfs 2 more chances before the euro 12z run tomorrow. We have seen this movie plenty of times where the euro is only model showing snow

It’s always caves

[winter_warlock]

In my opinion the 00z cmc actually looks a little better than 12z

 

 

 

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, Ji said:

Give the gfs 2 more chances before the euro 12z run tomorrow. We have seen this movie plenty of times where the euro is only model showing snow

It’s always caves

The other models are more GFS like.  It's gonna cave tonight.   I wonder what they did to this model.  It literally is out there on it's own.  Crazy

[Ji]

If it doesn't, then what do we do?

Actually icon looked interesting. Just need one other model to be interesting to keep hope alive

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

Actually icon looked interesting. Just need one other model to be interesting to keep hope alive

CMC looked better than I thought. Especially vs 12z, altho its rain