Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 00z NAM much different than 18z GFS at 84hr https://ibb.co/C1W8QQQ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 There were a couple runs when it was around day 6 that one storm produced a good mean. But it was inside the range I’m talking about and it was a false signal. Being on the southern fringe of heavy snow day 6 with no blocking is an absolutely atrocious spot to be! Several of the best posters here tried multiple times to warn everyone what was likely going to happen. And in some cases they were given shit for it! Im not always a deb before a threat. If I think it actually looks good I’ll say so. There have been some cases over the years when I was excited super early. I remember like 10 days out from that run in Feb 2010 being crazy excited by what I saw. Some were telling me to chill! I was on that Jan 2011 storm over a week out! I could go on but I don’t always deb a threat. We just haven’t had any good ones lately and so some are getting over excited by anything. Any hope even when it’s not a truly great setup But I’m really talking about when we’re 8-12 days away identifying the early signals of a big period coming. Nothing yet this year has done that. The only person who I remember badgering pro Mets was howie lol. I think most of were cautiously optimistic in the western burbs but knew the risks The nam in its wheelhouse had a run giving us snow 24 hours before the storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Yes people were talking about global warming as much then as now. It just hadn’t progressed as much yet. The 2016 super Nino changed everything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 11 minutes ago, 87storms said: I’m about ready to drive to Deep Creek to see 5 lol. Between the lake cutter upslope and the Monday “event”, there’s a lot of perfectly timed opportunity for the long weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The one thing I don’t get is why some of the less positive posters here are taking crap. It’s been literally the worst stretch for snow in our history, how can you expect anyone trying to make accurate forecasts to have been positive through that? You know who has been. JB! Is that what they want? This here. People act like it's some great mystery when people aren't positive...like what do you all expect? We have been in the worst snow drought of our lifetimes, and some of you look down on another poster for not being positive as if it's illogical. Listen, if you are an endlesslt optimistic person, that's fantastic. You're in a better space. But let people feel the way they do without weenieing or complaining about complaining. End rant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 00z NAM much different than 18z GFS at 84hr https://ibb.co/C1W8QQQ Well that’s cause it’s the nam at 84hrs which is pretty much ain’t worth dogwater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 00z NAM much different than 18z GFS at 84hr https://ibb.co/C1W8QQQ To my untrained eye nam looks better than gfs unless im reding that 500mb wrong lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 There’s a snow futility, will it ever snow, a CC forum, and panic room - I think there’s plenty of places to complain/post about the elephant. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, nj2va said: There’s a snow futility, will it ever snow, a CC forum, and panic room - I think there’s plenty of places to complain/post about the elephant. Oops… I thought this was the panic thread. My bad. I’ll keep the climate talk there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, nj2va said: There’s a snow futility, will it ever snow, a CC forum, and panic room - I think there’s plenty of places to complain/post about the elephant. Here's the issue though: It's becoming increasingly more difficult not to talk about it as it has become intertwined with our discussion of the medium/long range. Like if something that should work doesn't (and it used to), that convo is gonna leak in here. Hard to avoid, imo 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 We are approaching the nadir of the morale wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, Fozz said: Oops… I thought this was the panic thread. My bad. I’ll keep the climate talk there. Sometimes hard to tell the difference 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 It's time. Come on GFS, do something. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 It's time. Come on GFS, do something. Until the gfs is aboard the euro solutions will just be trash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's time. Come on GFS, do something. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, Ji said: Until the gfs is aboard the euro solutions will just be trash Why do you think I'm pulling for it to get on board. I can't even get past the "interested" phase if the GFS isn't on board. But as some pros have said, we may not see a shift either way on either model until this next cutter passes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Why do you think I'm pulling for it to get on board. I can't even get past the "interested" phase if the GFS isn't on board. But as some pros have said, we may not see a shift either way on either model until this next cutter passes. Please for once let the European advanced physics actually benefit us. It’s deadly when its in dr no mode 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, Ji said: Please for once let the European advanced physics actually benefit us. It’s deadly when its in dr no mode Amen to that !!! There was a time. Years ago when the euro model was known as the king!! And other models usually caved too it ! But not so much in recent years 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Early on, for better or worse there gonna be some changes on the GFS . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Early on, for better or worse there gonna be some changes on the GFS .Can’t get worse so…. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Remember it could always be worst, check out the difference on the snow map for this event just 3 days out lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 21 minutes ago, Ji said: Yes people were talking about global warming as much then as now. But if you looked within the trends bad signs were showing then. We do run in cycles for snow. But from 2000 to 2016 we were in a congruence of a favorable Atlantic and pacific pattern. Places north of us were getting way above normal snow. But we actually were below avg (by the historical numbers) during that stretch. That period looks like Valhalla compared to recently. But it was bad if you compared it to previous periods where we got everything to line up. Look at the mean pattern from that period! Warning sirens should have been going off when places to our north were running 150% of normal snow yet we were BELOW AVG even in that freaking amazing pattern for that period! We should have had another period like the late 50s-60s then! So now we’re in a truly bad cycle with a mean long wave pattern that isn’t good. And in the past this would have been bad but just like the last good period wasn’t as good, this bad period is WORSE! We will get to another better cycle eventually. At some point the PDO and AMO will flip again. But the question is how much will our ability to snow have degraded by then? How muted will that next cycle be. Is assuredly will be better than this. But does it even get back to that 2000-2016 level? I don’t know. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, Ji said: Can’t get worse so…. 2 minutes ago, Heisy said: Remember it could always be worst Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 10 minutes ago, Heisy said: Remember it could always be worst, check out the difference on the snow map for this event just 3 days out lol . See, this is what I mean by the models not being able to “see” past the cutters. We have one in progress that’s powerful enough to induce planetary wave breaking , and its interfering with the usual skill level of models even 3 days out. It’s like standing on a beach and normally, you can see a couple of sets out towards the horizon that’ll bring plenty of fun rides to surfers in their lineup within a few minutes. But if an incoming wave is so high that it blocks your view of the horizon, you can’t see what’s coming until after that wave breaks. Similar idea. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 29 minutes ago, Ji said: The only person who I remember badgering pro Mets was howie lol. I think most of were cautiously optimistic in the western burbs but knew the risks The nam in its wheelhouse had a run giving us snow 24 hours before the storm! When I started planning to go to Vermont when it was 3-4 days away that should have tipped you off how I really felt. Not just for DC but even my area! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 28 minutes ago, nj2va said: There’s a snow futility, will it ever snow, a CC forum, and panic room - I think there’s plenty of places to complain/post about the elephant. You’re right we should have been talking about all the snow we’ve been getting instead. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Still looking like an anafront type deal on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 On to the Euro! Will it cave? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 But if you looked within the trends bad signs were showing then. We do run in cycles for snow. But from 2000 to 2016 we were in a congruence of a favorable Atlantic and pacific pattern. Places north of us were getting way above normal snow. But we actually were below avg (by the historical numbers) during that stretch. That period looks like Valhalla compared to recently. But it was bad if you compared it to previous periods where we got everything to line up. Look at the mean pattern from that period! Warning sirens should have been going off when places to our north were running 150% of normal snow yet we were BELOW AVG even in that freaking amazing pattern for that period! We should have had another period like the late 50s-60s then! So now we’re in a truly bad cycle with a mean long wave pattern that isn’t good. And in the past this would have been bad but just like the last good period wasn’t as good, this bad period is WORSE! We will get to another better cycle eventually. At some point the PDO and AMO will flip again. But the question is how much will our ability to snow have degraded by then? How muted will that next cycle be. Is assuredly will be better than this. But does it even get back to that 2000-2016 level? I don’t know. Not sure if it’s due to climate change but we had some incredibly bad luck in that window with miller bs…Dec 2000 March 2001 Jan 2005…Boxing Day where nyc would get 30 and we would get zero even if we were cold enough. We also had numerous coastals that we were too far west! That’s just bad luck! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Still looking like an anafront type deal on the GFS. DC and BWI break an inch verbatim #winning 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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