WEATHER53 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 3 hours ago, WEATHER53 said: 30.5 at 3:30 26.5 at5:30 20.5 at 8:30 impressive 17.9 at 11:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 17.9 at 11:30What’s more impressive is that it’s in the wrong thread 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 hours ago, WxUSAF said: 93 was obviously a HECS, but not based on snow totals along I95 Was an intern at the Climate Analysis center at the time! We had a briefing with the weather folks on the 6th floor where we could look at maps and hear what they were thinking for the long range! That was one of the wildest storms ever! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 48 minutes ago, Ji said: What’s more impressive is that it’s in the wrong thread Thanks. You are right Sorry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 EPS has us back in colder pattern by the end of the month but it dosent look especially wet initially 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 4 minutes ago, Ji said: EPS has us back in colder pattern by the end of the month but it dosent look especially wet initially I like the +pna/-epo combo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 18 minutes ago, Ji said: EPS has us back in colder pattern by the end of the month but it dosent look especially wet initially Looks like a weak clipper and/or collision pattern for us. The linked pna/epo ridge will shut off the northern stream. They'll still exist but NS shortwaves will originate over the ice cap lol. I don't think it will be a dry pattern in the deep south/east coast. Split flow off the CA coast will let stuff undercut the ridges in the west. No real blocking so storm track can end up anywhere but with cold air cycling down on a SE trajectory over the lakes, an undercutter can easily collide with this. Best analog I can think of is Feb 2003 lol 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 The primary differences between the current d15 ens means and Feb 2003 are the scandi ridge blocking 50/50s from running away and the SW conus had an open door for shortwaves. No guidance is showing a scandi ridge but we don't need that anyways. Just a modest-ao or nao can do the same thing. Plenty of hints that may happen. While the pattern as shown could start out dry, I don't think that will last. My guess is the first carve end of month hits us flush with cooler air but the trough will carve/broaden in succession as the +PNA shifts and backs off. Just a guess. We'll see 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 hour ago, cbmclean said: I like the +pna/-epo combo. That is actually too much of a good thing verbatim. Though with the +NAO might wash. We just can't know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 46 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: That is actually too much of a good thing verbatim. Though with the +NAO might wash. We just can't know. Why because it might be dry like Ji mentioned? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 7 minutes ago, cbmclean said: Why because it might be dry like Ji mentioned? Pretty much....at least to start out. As Chill noted, we probably dont shut off the stj but it gets shunted S and we wait for the relax or some renegade NS system. Better than a shit the blinds look, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Correlation is down at .74 so not great matches but still a weird D11+ set. Top analogs all have snow events centered. Some are rain first then snow a few days later. Looking at the height pattern I would not have guessed those results. Maybe a poor sample or maybe a sign the pattern can ramp quick once we get thru next week 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 17 Share Posted January 17 Pretty much....at least to start out. As Chill noted, we probably dont shut off the stj but it gets shunted S and we wait for the relax or some renegade NS system. Better than a shit the blinds look, that's for sure.Not necessarily opposed to the jet being shunted south if we don’t also have an overwhelming block to shove storms out to sea. Leaves room for us to get a bit lucky and have a storm track up from the south off the NC VA coastline. +PNA helps when we don’t have an omega 2 or 3 block in place. Room to score, even if unconventional. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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