Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 hour ago, Steve25 said:

 So are we now just completely writing off any potential next week? 24 hours after saying it was loaded with potential? 

What are we doing in here? 

You new here?

[psuhoffman]

11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said:

I mean when the snow mean looks good not like we win usually either lol 

But it’s never actually looked that good.  We’ve had some good pattern looks. But honestly the ensemble snow has yet to light up the way it did historically when we were about to get crushed. I know it’s been a long time but like 10 days before some of our epic runs in 2014, 2015, 2016 those things started to go nuts. Not some 2-3” mean. I mean showing 8”+ as a mean over is for a 5 day period. We’ve seen nothing like that. We get excited when there is like a 4” mean over us but then Iook at the probabilities and it’s only like a 30% chance of 1” because that mean is skewed high by a few huge members. 
 

Fact is so far guidance has nailed both the long wave patterns and that even when the pattern would flip better the snow would remain north of us!  
 

Looking ahead the snow means look “ok” for the next 12 days or so. Not amazing but they say it’s possible we get snow. After that from day 12-20 when the nao is positive with a +pna look shut the lights atrocious. They then pick back up and look good for that range again into Feb as the nao goes negative again. 
 

 

[Terpeast]

One cutter down, one to go. Let’s see if models start getting into agreement on jan 16 by this time tomorrow.

[winter_warlock]

1 minute ago, psuhoffman said:

But it’s never actually looked that good.  We’ve had some good pattern looks. But honestly the ensemble snow has yet to light up the way it did historically when we were about to get crushed. I know it’s been a long time but like 10 days before some of our epic runs in 2014, 2015, 2016 those things started to go nuts. Not some 2-3” mean. I mean showing 8”+ as a mean over is for a 5 day period. We’ve seen nothing like that. We get excited when there is like a 4” mean over us but then Iook at the probabilities and it’s only like a 30% chance of 1” because that mean is skewed high by a few huge members. 
 

Fact is so far guidance has nailed both the long wave patterns and that even when the pattern would flip better the snow would remain north of us!  
 

Looking ahead the snow means look “ok” for the next 12 days or so. Not amazing but they say it’s possible we get snow. After that from day 12-20 when the nao is positive with a +pna look shut the lights atrocious. They then pick back up and look good for that range again into Feb as the nao goes negative again. 
 

 

As always bro, a great read!!!

[winter_warlock]

 Never good to hug any model that shows this storm  at the momet, even if it has you in the bulleye.  Reality is the storm is still 7 days q

away!

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, nj2va said:

If GFS is right, I’d suggest chase to the mountains this holiday weekend.  This includes 2-3” of upslope overnight/tomorrow but GFS is really honking the upslope potential which would be a boon for Wisp/Canaan.

Wasn’t this just a snowstorm here?

[psuhoffman]

1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said:

Wasn’t this just a snowstorm here?

That’s upslope from the two cutters. The euro has some snow/ice from a wave after. The gfs has never really been on board for that. 

[Ji]

23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

But it’s never actually looked that good.  We’ve had some good pattern looks. But honestly the ensemble snow has yet to light up the way it did historically when we were about to get crushed. I know it’s been a long time but like 10 days before some of our epic runs in 2014, 2015, 2016 those things started to go nuts. Not some 2-3” mean. I mean showing 8”+ as a mean over is for a 5 day period. We’ve seen nothing like that. We get excited when there is like a 4” mean over us but then Iook at the probabilities and it’s only like a 30% chance of 1” because that mean is skewed high by a few huge members. 
 

Fact is so far guidance has nailed both the long wave patterns and that even when the pattern would flip better the snow would remain north of us!  
 

Looking ahead the snow means look “ok” for the next 12 days or so. Not amazing but they say it’s possible we get snow. After that from day 12-20 when the nao is positive with a +pna look shut the lights atrocious. They then pick back up and look good for that range again into Feb as the nao goes negative again. 
 

 

[NorthArlington101]

pull it for DCA. It won’t look as good but it’ll still be alright.

EPS mean was the best all year at 12z. One could look on the bright side or one could say it’s all downhill

[WEATHER53]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

That’s upslope from the two cutters. The euro has some snow/ice from a wave after. The gfs has never really been on board for that. 

For sure we are having ample low pressures and just gotta get cold that isn’t gone in 25 hours. 

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

pull it for DCA. It won’t look as good but it’ll still be alright.

EPS mean was the best all year at 12z. One could look on the bright side or one could say it’s all downhill

this was for last weeks storm back on Jan 1. It gave Leesburg a mean of 8 lol. that aint for next week lol

[NorthArlington101]

this was for last weeks storm back on Jan 1. It gave Leesburg a mean of 8 lol. that aint for next week lol

It’s all been downhill from there then

[psuhoffman]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

There were a couple runs when it was around day 6 that one storm produced a good mean. But it was inside the range I’m talking about and it was a false signal. Being on the southern fringe of heavy snow day 6 with no blocking is an absolutely atrocious spot to be!  Several of the best posters here tried multiple times to warn everyone what was likely going to happen. And in some cases they were given shit for it!  

Im not always a deb before a threat.  If I think it actually looks good I’ll say so.  There have been some cases over the years when I was excited super early.  I remember like 10 days out from that run in Feb 2010 being crazy excited by what I saw. Some were telling me to chill!  I was on that Jan 2011 storm over a week out!  I could go on but I don’t always deb a threat.  We just haven’t had any good ones lately and so some are getting over excited by anything.  Any hope even when it’s not a truly great setup  

But I’m really talking about when we’re 8-12 days away identifying the early signals of a big period coming. Nothing yet this year has done that. 

[winter_warlock]

1 hour ago, Frederick Weather said:

EURO ENS Juiced!

 Euro has been pretty consistent last 4 runs . Maybe euro  trying to reclaim  the name "king" again 

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

There were a couple runs when it was around day 6 that one storm produced a good mean. But it was inside the range I’m talking about and it was a false signal. Being on the southern fringe of heavy snow day 6 with no blocking is an absolutely atrocious spot to be!  Several of the best posters here tried multiple times to warn everyone what was likely going to happen. And in some cases they were given shit for it!  

Im not always a deb before a threat.  If I think it actually looks good I’ll say so.  There have been some cases over the years when I was excited super early.  I remember like 10 days out from that run in Feb 2010 being crazy excited by what I saw. Some were telling me to chill!  I was on that Jan 2011 storm over a week out!  I could go on but I don’t always deb a threat.  We just haven’t had any good ones lately and so some are getting over excited by anything.  Any hope even when it’s not a truly great setup  

But I’m really talking about when we’re 8-12 days away identifying the early signals of a big period coming. Nothing yet this year has done that. 

dude when we havent had a anything to track for 2 years..its easy on pounce on anything that looks wintry. I was thinking today how happy I would be with 3 inches of snow and a 1/2 inch of freezing rain. That would of never made me happy but i am at the point where i will take anything wintry

 

i know i joke alot about how 6 inches wont do it for me...but thats me trying to live up to this stupid personality ive created on this forum....deep down...i would be super happy if my grass got covered.

that sad thing is---there isnt really anywhere for me to drive to see snow either. Ive im driving to Deep Creek its to see 12-18. not 5

[psuhoffman]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

dude when we havent had a anything to track for 2 years..its easy on pounce on anything that looks wintry. I was thinking today how happy I would be with 3 inches of snow and a 1/2 inch of freezing rain. That would of never made me happy but i am at the point where i will take anything wintry

 

i know i joke alot about how 6 inches wont do it for me...but thats me trying to live up to this stupid personality ive created on this forum....deep down...i would be super happy if my grass got covered.

that sad thing is---there isnt really anywhere for me to drive to see snow either. Ive im driving to Deep Creek its to see 12-18. not 5

I don know what to say. It’s been awful. Let’s just hope we turn this around in a huge way soon. At least the pattern looks as perfect as we could ask for a chance to do that. But it’s getting hard to keep the faith with every snowless week that goes by.  
 

The one thing I don’t get is why some of the less positive posters here are taking crap. It’s been literally the worst stretch for snow in our history, how can you expect anyone trying to make accurate forecasts to have been positive through that?  You know who has been. JB!  Is that what they want?  

[nj2va]

Maybe we should try a thing where we create a new LR thread every night until we get a storm.   What could go wrong?

[87storms]

dude when we havent had a anything to track for 2 years..its easy on pounce on anything that looks wintry. I was thinking today how happy I would be with 3 inches of snow and a 1/2 inch of freezing rain. That would of never made me happy but i am at the point where i will take anything wintry
 
i know i joke alot about how 6 inches wont do it for me...but thats me trying to live up to this stupid personality ive created on this forum....deep down...i would be super happy if my grass got covered.
that sad thing is---there isnt really anywhere for me to drive to see snow either. Ive im driving to Deep Creek its to see 12-18. not 5

I’m about ready to drive to Deep Creek to see 5 lol.

[Fozz]

4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

I don know what to say. It’s been awful. Let’s just hope we turn this around in a huge way soon. At least the pattern looks as perfect as we could ask for a chance to do that. But it’s getting hard to keep the faith with every snowless week that goes by.  
 

The one thing I don’t get is why some of the less positive posters here are taking crap. It’s been literally the worst stretch for snow in our history, how can you expect anyone trying to make accurate forecasts to have been positive through that?  You know who has been. JB!  Is that what they want?  

Winter 2013-14, where it snowed just about every week, was only a decade ago. Feels like a lifetime now.

[Ji]

Winter 2013-14, where it snowed just about every week, was only a decade ago. Feels like a lifetime now.

Yes people were talking about global warming as much then as now.

[Ji]

Maybe we should try a thing where we create a new LR thread every night until we get a storm.   What could go wrong?

Back in the day we used to create a thread for each model run lol

[TSSN+]

6 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I’m about ready to drive to Deep Creek to see 5 lol.

Hmmm lol 

[Stormchaserchuck1]

00z NAM much different than 18z GFS at 84hr

https://ibb.co/C1W8QQQ

[Ji]

There were a couple runs when it was around day 6 that one storm produced a good mean. But it was inside the range I’m talking about and it was a false signal. Being on the southern fringe of heavy snow day 6 with no blocking is an absolutely atrocious spot to be!  Several of the best posters here tried multiple times to warn everyone what was likely going to happen. And in some cases they were given shit for it!  

Im not always a deb before a threat.  If I think it actually looks good I’ll say so.  There have been some cases over the years when I was excited super early.  I remember like 10 days out from that run in Feb 2010 being crazy excited by what I saw. Some were telling me to chill!  I was on that Jan 2011 storm over a week out!  I could go on but I don’t always deb a threat.  We just haven’t had any good ones lately and so some are getting over excited by anything.  Any hope even when it’s not a truly great setup  
But I’m really talking about when we’re 8-12 days away identifying the early signals of a big period coming. Nothing yet this year has done that. 

The only person who I remember badgering pro Mets was howie lol. I think most of were cautiously optimistic in the western burbs but knew the risks

The nam in its wheelhouse had a run giving us snow 24 hours before the storm!

[Fozz]

3 minutes ago, Ji said:

Yes people were talking about global warming as much then as now.

It just hadn’t progressed as much yet. The 2016 super Nino changed everything.

[Fozz]

11 minutes ago, 87storms said:

I’m about ready to drive to Deep Creek to see 5 lol.

Between the lake cutter upslope and the Monday “event”, there’s a lot of perfectly timed opportunity for the long weekend.

[Maestrobjwa]

10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

The one thing I don’t get is why some of the less positive posters here are taking crap. It’s been literally the worst stretch for snow in our history, how can you expect anyone trying to make accurate forecasts to have been positive through that?  You know who has been. JB!  Is that what they want?

This here. People act like it's some great mystery when people aren't positive...like what do you all expect? We have been in the worst snow drought of our lifetimes, and some of you look down on another poster for not being positive as if it's illogical. Listen, if you are an endlesslt optimistic person, that's fantastic. You're in a better space. But let people feel the way they do without weenieing or complaining about complaining.

End rant

[TSSN+]

4 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

00z NAM much different than 18z GFS at 84hr

https://ibb.co/C1W8QQQ

Well that’s cause it’s the nam at 84hrs which is pretty much ain’t worth dogwater 

[winter_warlock]

5 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said:

00z NAM much different than 18z GFS at 84hr

https://ibb.co/C1W8QQQ

To my untrained eye nam looks better than gfs  unless im reding that 500mb  wrong lol

[nj2va]

There’s a snow futility, will it ever snow, a CC forum, and panic room - I think there’s plenty of places to complain/post about the elephant.