Frederick Weather Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 EURO ENS Juiced! 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, Heisy said: 18z control is kind of odd at end of run. Just posting cause it tends to follow OP pretty closely and im bored. Trough is really positively tilted. It almost looks like it was gonna dig and close off at the back end of the trough, which would have maybe allowed the front to clear first. Almost anafrontal… Here is 18z eps as well . The control certainly doesn't look the gfs with the tail end if the trough. GfS much further east with it all. I would say the Control was going to have a storm in the East with that h5. Don't know if it would be a good track for us but plenty of energy left at the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 15 minutes ago, Heisy said: 18z control is kind of odd at end of run. Just posting cause it tends to follow OP pretty closely and im bored. Trough is really positively tilted. It almost looks like it was gonna dig and close off at the back end of the trough, which would have maybe allowed the front to clear first. Almost anafrontal… Here is 18z eps as well . Mean looks nearly identical to the 12z run to me. Don't really care about a control run ever. It's either off on a tangent or similar to the op. So go with the op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 18 minutes ago, Frederick Weather said: EURO ENS Juiced! Pretty close match to 12z. Timing a bit different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I like the long range.. ridge builds off the west coast, PNA goes positive.. this positive PNA evolution is fitting exactly the 15 analogs I came up with that had a -PNA Jan 5-13, during an El Nino or Neutral ENSO. I thought it was telling, because in roll forwards you usually see the same variable smoothed out, but it gave me a reversal to -100-120dm Aleutian low and 80dm -epo by Jan 25th. Now look at what's happening when all this positive change is happening on the model... The NAO is +. And it looks like a 2std positive event with -200dm on the D14-15 ensemble mean. I was telling PSUhoffman that, that is what we need right now to flip to a favorable pattern in the Pacific and probably on the west coast.. let's hope these probabilities hold as we go into the last week of January. Except the snow mean on the long range guidance looks absolutely atrocious for the one week we have the +nao +pna. It starts to look better once the nao flips negative again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Except the snow mean on the long range guidance looks absolutely atrocious for the one week we have the +nao +pna. It starts to look better once the nao flips negative again. I mean when the snow mean looks good not like we win usually either lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 59 minutes ago, Ji said: Can you imagine if someone had told you that you would have 10 inches of liquid since Nov 20 and no snow by now? I'd have said we have a warmer base state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 54 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Just seems like the entire discussion has switched to just hoping we can turn things around the last week of January and into February Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, Steve25 said: So are we now just completely writing off any potential next week? 24 hours after saying it was loaded with potential? What are we doing in here? You new here? 1 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 11 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: I mean when the snow mean looks good not like we win usually either lol But it’s never actually looked that good. We’ve had some good pattern looks. But honestly the ensemble snow has yet to light up the way it did historically when we were about to get crushed. I know it’s been a long time but like 10 days before some of our epic runs in 2014, 2015, 2016 those things started to go nuts. Not some 2-3” mean. I mean showing 8”+ as a mean over is for a 5 day period. We’ve seen nothing like that. We get excited when there is like a 4” mean over us but then Iook at the probabilities and it’s only like a 30% chance of 1” because that mean is skewed high by a few huge members. Fact is so far guidance has nailed both the long wave patterns and that even when the pattern would flip better the snow would remain north of us! Looking ahead the snow means look “ok” for the next 12 days or so. Not amazing but they say it’s possible we get snow. After that from day 12-20 when the nao is positive with a +pna look shut the lights atrocious. They then pick back up and look good for that range again into Feb as the nao goes negative again. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 One cutter down, one to go. Let’s see if models start getting into agreement on jan 16 by this time tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: But it’s never actually looked that good. We’ve had some good pattern looks. But honestly the ensemble snow has yet to light up the way it did historically when we were about to get crushed. I know it’s been a long time but like 10 days before some of our epic runs in 2014, 2015, 2016 those things started to go nuts. Not some 2-3” mean. I mean showing 8”+ as a mean over is for a 5 day period. We’ve seen nothing like that. We get excited when there is like a 4” mean over us but then Iook at the probabilities and it’s only like a 30% chance of 1” because that mean is skewed high by a few huge members. Fact is so far guidance has nailed both the long wave patterns and that even when the pattern would flip better the snow would remain north of us! Looking ahead the snow means look “ok” for the next 12 days or so. Not amazing but they say it’s possible we get snow. After that from day 12-20 when the nao is positive with a +pna look shut the lights atrocious. They then pick back up and look good for that range again into Feb as the nao goes negative again. As always bro, a great read!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Never good to hug any model that shows this storm at the momet, even if it has you in the bulleye. Reality is the storm is still 7 days q away! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, nj2va said: If GFS is right, I’d suggest chase to the mountains this holiday weekend. This includes 2-3” of upslope overnight/tomorrow but GFS is really honking the upslope potential which would be a boon for Wisp/Canaan. Wasn’t this just a snowstorm here? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, WEATHER53 said: Wasn’t this just a snowstorm here? That’s upslope from the two cutters. The euro has some snow/ice from a wave after. The gfs has never really been on board for that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: But it’s never actually looked that good. We’ve had some good pattern looks. But honestly the ensemble snow has yet to light up the way it did historically when we were about to get crushed. I know it’s been a long time but like 10 days before some of our epic runs in 2014, 2015, 2016 those things started to go nuts. Not some 2-3” mean. I mean showing 8”+ as a mean over is for a 5 day period. We’ve seen nothing like that. We get excited when there is like a 4” mean over us but then Iook at the probabilities and it’s only like a 30% chance of 1” because that mean is skewed high by a few huge members. Fact is so far guidance has nailed both the long wave patterns and that even when the pattern would flip better the snow would remain north of us! Looking ahead the snow means look “ok” for the next 12 days or so. Not amazing but they say it’s possible we get snow. After that from day 12-20 when the nao is positive with a +pna look shut the lights atrocious. They then pick back up and look good for that range again into Feb as the nao goes negative again. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 pull it for DCA. It won’t look as good but it’ll still be alright. EPS mean was the best all year at 12z. One could look on the bright side or one could say it’s all downhill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: That’s upslope from the two cutters. The euro has some snow/ice from a wave after. The gfs has never really been on board for that. For sure we are having ample low pressures and just gotta get cold that isn’t gone in 25 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: pull it for DCA. It won’t look as good but it’ll still be alright. EPS mean was the best all year at 12z. One could look on the bright side or one could say it’s all downhill this was for last weeks storm back on Jan 1. It gave Leesburg a mean of 8 lol. that aint for next week lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 this was for last weeks storm back on Jan 1. It gave Leesburg a mean of 8 lol. that aint for next week lolIt’s all been downhill from there then Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, Ji said: There were a couple runs when it was around day 6 that one storm produced a good mean. But it was inside the range I’m talking about and it was a false signal. Being on the southern fringe of heavy snow day 6 with no blocking is an absolutely atrocious spot to be! Several of the best posters here tried multiple times to warn everyone what was likely going to happen. And in some cases they were given shit for it! Im not always a deb before a threat. If I think it actually looks good I’ll say so. There have been some cases over the years when I was excited super early. I remember like 10 days out from that run in Feb 2010 being crazy excited by what I saw. Some were telling me to chill! I was on that Jan 2011 storm over a week out! I could go on but I don’t always deb a threat. We just haven’t had any good ones lately and so some are getting over excited by anything. Any hope even when it’s not a truly great setup But I’m really talking about when we’re 8-12 days away identifying the early signals of a big period coming. Nothing yet this year has done that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, Frederick Weather said: EURO ENS Juiced! Euro has been pretty consistent last 4 runs . Maybe euro trying to reclaim the name "king" again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There were a couple runs when it was around day 6 that one storm produced a good mean. But it was inside the range I’m talking about and it was a false signal. Being on the southern fringe of heavy snow day 6 with no blocking is an absolutely atrocious spot to be! Several of the best posters here tried multiple times to warn everyone what was likely going to happen. And in some cases they were given shit for it! Im not always a deb before a threat. If I think it actually looks good I’ll say so. There have been some cases over the years when I was excited super early. I remember like 10 days out from that run in Feb 2010 being crazy excited by what I saw. Some were telling me to chill! I was on that Jan 2011 storm over a week out! I could go on but I don’t always deb a threat. We just haven’t had any good ones lately and so some are getting over excited by anything. Any hope even when it’s not a truly great setup But I’m really talking about when we’re 8-12 days away identifying the early signals of a big period coming. Nothing yet this year has done that. dude when we havent had a anything to track for 2 years..its easy on pounce on anything that looks wintry. I was thinking today how happy I would be with 3 inches of snow and a 1/2 inch of freezing rain. That would of never made me happy but i am at the point where i will take anything wintry i know i joke alot about how 6 inches wont do it for me...but thats me trying to live up to this stupid personality ive created on this forum....deep down...i would be super happy if my grass got covered. that sad thing is---there isnt really anywhere for me to drive to see snow either. Ive im driving to Deep Creek its to see 12-18. not 5 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, Ji said: dude when we havent had a anything to track for 2 years..its easy on pounce on anything that looks wintry. I was thinking today how happy I would be with 3 inches of snow and a 1/2 inch of freezing rain. That would of never made me happy but i am at the point where i will take anything wintry i know i joke alot about how 6 inches wont do it for me...but thats me trying to live up to this stupid personality ive created on this forum....deep down...i would be super happy if my grass got covered. that sad thing is---there isnt really anywhere for me to drive to see snow either. Ive im driving to Deep Creek its to see 12-18. not 5 I don know what to say. It’s been awful. Let’s just hope we turn this around in a huge way soon. At least the pattern looks as perfect as we could ask for a chance to do that. But it’s getting hard to keep the faith with every snowless week that goes by. The one thing I don’t get is why some of the less positive posters here are taking crap. It’s been literally the worst stretch for snow in our history, how can you expect anyone trying to make accurate forecasts to have been positive through that? You know who has been. JB! Is that what they want? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Maybe we should try a thing where we create a new LR thread every night until we get a storm. What could go wrong? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 dude when we havent had a anything to track for 2 years..its easy on pounce on anything that looks wintry. I was thinking today how happy I would be with 3 inches of snow and a 1/2 inch of freezing rain. That would of never made me happy but i am at the point where i will take anything wintry i know i joke alot about how 6 inches wont do it for me...but thats me trying to live up to this stupid personality ive created on this forum....deep down...i would be super happy if my grass got covered. that sad thing is---there isnt really anywhere for me to drive to see snow either. Ive im driving to Deep Creek its to see 12-18. not 5I’m about ready to drive to Deep Creek to see 5 lol. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I don know what to say. It’s been awful. Let’s just hope we turn this around in a huge way soon. At least the pattern looks as perfect as we could ask for a chance to do that. But it’s getting hard to keep the faith with every snowless week that goes by. The one thing I don’t get is why some of the less positive posters here are taking crap. It’s been literally the worst stretch for snow in our history, how can you expect anyone trying to make accurate forecasts to have been positive through that? You know who has been. JB! Is that what they want? Winter 2013-14, where it snowed just about every week, was only a decade ago. Feels like a lifetime now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Winter 2013-14, where it snowed just about every week, was only a decade ago. Feels like a lifetime now.Yes people were talking about global warming as much then as now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Maybe we should try a thing where we create a new LR thread every night until we get a storm. What could go wrong?Back in the day we used to create a thread for each model run lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, 87storms said: I’m about ready to drive to Deep Creek to see 5 lol. Hmmm lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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