jayyy Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 No no, by all mean, keep stomping your widdle feets and telling all the mets how bad their models are. Everyone loves it and wishes you would keep doing it, lolHe knows better than Mets do. And models are trash because they can’t nail exact details days or weeks out. Duh. (Kidding obviously) In all seriousness… there’s a path to victory here, but hard to tell how high the upside would be at the moment. Can’t believe I’m saying this but JB… *may* be onto something. And models are ever so slowly catching onto that possibility. Still 4 days out, so we’re still alive, but time is beginning to run thin for seeing major changes in the general synoptic setup. It’s possible things trend our way between now and Friday but we still end up JUST missing. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, yoda said: Well shit... guess we're all fucked (no I didn't edit it at all... go read the afternoon AFD from LWX just issued and you'll see it yourself) Precipitation chances overspread the area overnight Thursday into Friday as model guidance indicates an area of low pressure developing and travelling up the east coast. With high temperatures forecast in the low to mid 300s for most (teens and 20s at higher elevations), any precipitation will be snow. We will continue to monitor this event as it gets closer in time. As the aforementioned upper level trough pivots out of the area, upper level ridging and high pressure at the surface build over the area. Upslope snow showers continue through Saturday afternoon along and west of the Alleghenies with dry conditions expected elsewhere through Sunday. Saturday will be the coolest day of the long term period with highs staying in the 20s for most. Those in metro areas or located near the Chesapeake Bay will get into the low 30s while higher elevations dip into the low teens. They obviously made a typo. The date is wrong. That’s the forecast for Jan 20 2034. 2 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JenkinsJinkies Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: They obviously made a typo. The date is wrong. That’s the forecast for Jan 20 2034. Given climate change and CO2 extrapolations you also made a typo. I think you meant Jan 20 2340. It takes time to get to a step change like that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 11 minutes ago, jayyy said: He knows better than Mets do. And models are trash because they can’t nail exact details days or weeks out. Duh. (Kidding obviously) In all seriousness… there’s a path to victory here, but hard to tell how high the upside would be at the moment. Can’t believe I’m saying this but JB… *may* be onto something. And models are ever so slowly catching onto that possibility. Still 4 days out, so we’re still alive, but time is beginning to run thin for seeing major changes in the general synoptic setup. It’s possible things trend our way between now and Friday but we still end up JUST missing. . A blind squirrel…he goes with the long shot how could the models be wrong and it shows snow EVERY time. The thing is he probably isn’t wrong about HOW it could happen. It’s just that he predicts that long shot it’s gonna snow when no model has it scenario every damn time! He actually does the complete opposite of me. I know out shitty ass climo so whenever guidance shows snow I look for how it could fall apart. And like 90% that’s what happens! When I struggle to find a realistic way it can go to crap that’s when I feel confident. He looks at every scenario and says “how could it possibly snow” and goes with that. He will be right every time it snows. And wrong every time there was any slight chance at day 10 and it doesn’t. That simple. Unfortunately my method is accurate WAY more often. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, JenkinsJinkies said: Given climate change and CO2 extrapolations you also made a typo. I think you meant Jan 20 2340. It takes time to get to a step change like that. Thank you so much I didn’t realize my mistake. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 GFS brings some light snow in Thursday night, then again during the day on Friday. T-2" all told 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 GFS brings some light snow in Thursday night, then again during the day on Friday. T-2" all toldSo frustrating 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, Ji said: So frustrating Even just looking at the surface you can tell it's disjointed but feels like it should be more. Still some time 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 42 minutes ago, TowsonWeather said: No no, by all mean, keep stomping your widdle feets and telling all the mets how bad their models are. Everyone loves it and wishes you would keep doing it, lol No need to dig up your shit from 5 days ago and post it NOW in this weather forum considering the current gregarious environment . You should be temporarily banned for such egregious chilishness . Now back to weather . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 A blind squirrel…he goes with the long shot how could the models be wrong and it shows snow EVERY time. The thing is he probably isn’t wrong about HOW it could happen. It’s just that he predicts that long shot it’s gonna snow when no model has it scenario every damn time! He actually does the complete opposite of me. I know out shitty ass climo so whenever guidance shows snow I look for how it could fall apart. And like 90% that’s what happens! When I struggle to find a realistic way it can go to crap that’s when I feel confident. He looks at every scenario and says “how could it possibly snow” and goes with that. He will be right every time it snows. And wrong every time there was any slight chance at day 10 and it doesn’t. That simple. Unfortunately my method is accurate WAY more often. Pretty wild that he doesn’t get held accountable for how often he fails, especially with his “coldest air and most snow in 100 years” forecasts that never verify. Dude seemed like a genius back in the day (2000-2010), especially living up in the Hudson valley in New York, since we truly did have an epic decade+ of snowfall. He was typically pretty spot on because it honestly felt like everything always went right for us up that way. I appreciate your methodology much more. Now all you need is a following and to charge some $ for your services. I’d certainly pay. Have learned an awful lot from you over the years. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Pretty wild that he doesn’t get held accountable for how often he fails, especially with his “coldest air and most snow in 100 years” forecasts that never verify. Dude seemed like a genius back in the day (2000-2010), especially living up in the Hudson valley in New York, since we truly did have an epic decade+ of snowfall. He was typically pretty spot on because it honestly felt like everything always went right for us up that way. I appreciate your methodology much more. Now all you need is a following and to charge some $ for your services. I’d certainly pay. Have learned an awful lot from you over the years. Who is gojng to hold him accountable lol? Weatherbell is making a killing likely Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 49 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: GFS brings some light snow in Thursday night, then again during the day on Friday. T-2" all told GEFS was a hold if not a slight improvement - GFS was on the lower side of it's own members. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 59 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: No need to dig up your shit from 5 days ago and post it NOW in this weather forum considering the current gregarious environment . You should be temporarily banned for such egregious chilishness . Now back to weather . Gentlemen… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 @Ji @jayyy something to consider wrt JB. He isn’t as bad further north where it actually snows more. He still hypes and is playing to that audience imo, but his issues are made worse by the fact he doesn’t know jack about our snow climo and I know that for a fact from our old communications in the 2000s. He judges the whole mid Atlantic area south of PA by DCAs numbers. He thinks if I get 20” it’s a snowy winter! Keep that in mind when he predicts above normal snow down here. To him that’s just 15”! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Who is gojng to hold him accountable lol? Weatherbell is making a killing likely Viewers not tuning in to his bullshit forecasts for starters. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 42 minutes ago, jayyy said: Viewers not tuning in to his bullshit forecasts for starters. . People get wxbell for the access to models and graphics. If he pulls in a niche audience he cultivates it’s a bonus. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Whatever happens Friday it seems like a pretty good chance winter returns 29-30th. 12 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Weeklies for Feb look like fun with blocking showing signs of returning and really coming back towards end of month . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Just now, Heisy said: Weeklies for Feb look like fun with blocking showing signs of returning and really coming back towards end of month . I could handle a pair of late Feb MECS. LFG! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 4 minutes ago, Heisy said: Weeklies for Feb look like fun with blocking showing signs of returning and really coming back towards end of month . late feb...oof....natives will be restless 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 6 minutes ago, Ji said: late feb...oof....I will be restless Fyp 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 11 minutes ago, Ji said: late feb...oof....natives will be restless He meant late January, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 13 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: He meant late January, lol We wish. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 He meant late January, lolEnd of Jan Mid Feb End of Feb . 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 hour ago, Heisy said: Whatever happens Friday it seems like a pretty good chance winter returns 29-30th . Checks out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 1 minute ago, Heisy said: End of Jan Mid Feb End of Feb . Ah I see...thanks. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Nam looks much diggier 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 I know. 84h NAM is ban worthy, but it’s snowing out and we’re all in a good mood so deal with it. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 That storm could trend warmer. Cold air will be cutoff, with NAO going + and -WPO retrograding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 7 minutes ago, Ji said: Nam looks much diggier Then it's time to get diggy with it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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