psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Question: Aren't those a bit more of a crapshoot/chaos? (Then again that may be our snow climo, haha) And I'm trying to remember the last time one actually worked, lol Now when we're tracking a couple of waves it's usually "well if that cutter trends strong enough then...50-50 :D:D:guitar:" but I tune it out because I can't remember when it worked recently. There is chaos in any pattern. But get us cold and throw stj waves at us and eventually something likely works out. Nino snow climo is made a lot simpler by having a stronger stj throwing chances at us more frequently. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 22 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Gfs back with something Friday. Yeah, just caught that..sorry folks. I totally gave up on it. Just was tired of tracking zilch 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, DeeDeeHCue said: How much will the existing storm system affect the dynamic of the 1/19 one, @psuhoffman? Everything is pinwheeling around the parent anchor vortex tpv. So it affects it very much. Problem is we don’t know exactly how it will play out. And there are a lot of variables. But we’re stuck in a bit of a double bind. We need that NS wave to dig a lot and stay south. The only path to a big storm I see is if the NS wave comes in stronger and digs more, that might also require more of a split between the main tpv and the lobe hanging back. In that case we want the system now to phase and pull the tpv further east. But what if the NS SW isn’t going to be stronger and dig? Then we probably lose any path to a bigger snow but in that case if we want anything even a 1-3” event DC needs a more suppressive flow to force the NS SW not to gain any latitude as it slides east and keep it under us. In that scenario we want the main tpv further west. This is too chaotic a setup for me to play it out in my mind and say for sure what need from X and Y now. Sometimes I do that when yes a simpler scenario and I can see from 5 days out “we just need X this and Y that”. This is way too complicated for me to do that with any clarity. The 2 things I can say for sure is we ideally want a stringer NS SW and for it to be further south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AdamHLG Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Everyone said last week we needed to clear the weekend systems before we got a real look at today and Friday - and how bout that - we cleared the weekend systems and now the models picking up on it again. It is only Monday. Maybe just maybe the original idea of a warning criteria storm will start the trend today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Canadian is sweet for the weekend event. GFS is close to it as well. #snowtown 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just looked at the full GGEM run. It's a beaut EDIT: Until the rainstorm after this weekend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 WB 12Z GEFS looks like it trended closer to coast for Friday. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 End of week event for the Canadian. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, Bob Chill said: The relax is quite different than a pac jet type of pattern. That's happened so much recently that a "relax" is becoming synonymous with "continental Pac invasion" lol. When cold retreats next week, flow will be slow and cold will mostly just decay and not be "replaced". What brings cold back on the ens is a very efficient way to go from warm/blah to a single front then cold enuff. Cold continental air from central Canada pushes down into the conus SE over the lakes into the east. Ens guidance unanimously agrees that the Epo and/or pna ridges remain favorable. Potentially for weeks. In this type of setup a -AO regime delivers the goods because of favorable ridge axis offsetting lack of a NAO block when the AO displaces the TPV to hudson bay or south. The look reminds me of Feb/Mar 2003. Eta: I left out transient 50/50s would be the key piece for a big storm with the advertised look going into early Feb. We'll see about the NAO. So far it doesn't look to reload quickly Thanks for the added insight, Bob! That's sort of the impression I had, that we shouldn't be waiting around for weeks to clear out a bunch of Pac puke air. Looking at the flow over the entire north American region on TT to get a better idea, you can see that Canada generally keeps a northerly flow so the cold air source doesn't get obliterated, thanks to that EPO/PNA ridge. I wonder if in a way this is also a bit reminiscent of 2014, though at the time I believe we had a strongly +AO (whereas -AO this year) and were blessed with having an EPO/PNA ridge on 'roids to help us then. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 has there been any examples of a 12"+ storm besides 2003 with a netural to positive NAO and w just a 50/50? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardmeiser Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 29 minutes ago, snowfan said: End of week event for the Canadian. is this the Blizzard JB has been hyping? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 8 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: has there been any examples of a 12"+ storm besides 2003 with a netural to positive NAO and w just a 50/50? There aren't many other 12" plus examples...but there are plenty of like 6-10" examples. Not having a NAO block severely limits our ability to get a 12" plus storm because even if we get a transient 50/50 its moving out and so any long duration slow moving storm, the kind you usually need to get a 12" plus storm...is going to have issues unless its times absolutely perfect. But we can certainly get a good storm that way. 2003 was time up perfect with an arctic high in a perfect spot and not just a 50/50 but an absolute BEAST of one that because it was so strong didnt move as easy. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There aren't many other 12" plus examples...but there are plenty of like 6-10" examples. Not having a NAO block severely limits our ability to get a 12" plus storm because even if we get a transient 50/50 its moving out and so any long duration slow moving storm, the kind you usually need to get a 12" plus storm...is going to have issues unless its times absolutely perfect. But we can certainly get a good storm that way. 2003 was time up perfect with an arctic high in a perfect spot and not just a 50/50 but an absolute BEAST of one that because it was so strong didnt move as easy. do u think -NAO can restore in like mid feb? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Here is the path to a bigger snow Friday, and its closer today than it was yesterday... Yesterday I noted that the ensemble members that had a big storm were the few that actually washed out the lead NS SW (X above) and developed something behind it associated with Y. Y is the SW that actually has the most potential to amplify. X is coming in under a pretty suppressive flow since the TPV didn't fully split or slide east. Problem is that solution was an extreme outlier and things were trending away. That lead SW is coming in a bit stronger not weaker lately. However...there is now another path IMO. Y could catch up to X. There is now a little more interaction that yesterday between these features and they do eventually phase just a little too late. IF Y can speed up some...and X can slow down some which will happy if it continues to amplify more, Y could dive in in time to buckle the flow and phase while the storm is still south of our latitude ...that would be the path to a bigger storm here IMO. 6 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: do u think -NAO can restore in like mid feb? There was always disagreement for early Feb but all guidance agrees the NAO goes negative again by mid Feb. The Euro had a -NAO early Feb but it was always a very weak signal...it didn't go strongly neg until later...now guidance is more in agreement that the NAO starts to flip back negative between Feb 10-15. That's fine with me...Feb 15-March 10 is still prime snow climo. And there would be opportunities for snow before then in the advertised pattern. JUst not really a HECS until we get the nao back. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 14 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There was always disagreement for early Feb but all guidance agrees the NAO goes negative again by mid Feb. The Euro had a -NAO early Feb but it was always a very weak signal...it didn't go strongly neg until later...now guidance is more in agreement that the NAO starts to flip back negative between Feb 10-15. That's fine with me...Feb 15-March 10 is still prime snow climo. And there would be opportunities for snow before then in the advertised pattern. JUst not really a HECS until we get the nao back. In big trouble for HECS hunting if NAO doesn’t go negative before February 15. Don’t have a great track record of big storms that late. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 UKMET is mostly a 1-2" event Friday...but its a beautiful SW pass and the bullseye axis is right across DC. Getting this to track south enough is my main concern at this stage...we can work on beefing up qpf and a little more amp on the coastal later. Nothing matters if the wave goes north of us though and they never come back from that...almost never. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 9 minutes ago, osfan24 said: In big trouble for HECS hunting if NAO doesn’t go negative before February 15. Don’t have a great track record of big storms that late. If you go back to the 60's we do, since then not so much...the question is was that just random or...you know. Are we "due" or... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 ok, here we go for euro...good luck yall 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 For the record I actually tend to think the lack of a HECS after Presidents Day to about March 15 is just simple random luck. Truth is HECS are pretty rare. We haven't had many in January since 1980 either! Just 1996 and 2016! There is way too small a sample size. If you track smaller snowstorms like 6" plus it's clear our climo degrades QUICK when you hit March 10-20 depending on where in the region you are. But I think the last week of Feb and the first week of March if the right setup comes along it would not be too late to get a HECS. The end of our winter climo has been affected way less than the beginning due to SST's cooling by then. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 lol--jb cant analog any storm with analoging it to a blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 9 minutes ago, stormtracker said: ok, here we go for euro...good luck yall what are we tracking again? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Ridge is better out west, s/w a little better, but it's still gonna be a meh 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 59 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: has there been any examples of a 12"+ storm besides 2003 with a netural to positive NAO and w just a 50/50? What about the 2006 storm? Not sure of the NAO on that one. I got over a foot out of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 minute ago, Ji said: what are we tracking again? Friday! This is the period @brooklynwx99 was honking about maybe 5 days ago! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 H5 is better, but trof is just too broad 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Ridge is better out west, s/w a little better, but it's still gonna be a meh the doctor will never fail in disappointing you 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 gets some light snow into the area around 15z to 18z and still going a bit 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 9 minutes ago, Terpeast said: What about the 2006 storm? Not sure of the NAO on that one. I got a foot out of it NAO was negative... people at the time called it "thread the needle" but the pattern was pretty good...just the thermals were marginal and "iffy" by those days standards anyways lol. Perfect track and amplification overcame the marginal temps. Then everyone complained when it melted right after because again...the airmass wasnt cold. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Still light snow at 21z FRIDAY 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now