stormtracker Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Next. I'm going to bed. See yall in the morning. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 This is NO TIME to be goin to bed. Heavier snow is heading for Northern Virginia and DC! I can't believe y'all are going to bed! You got a snowstorm unfolding and you are going to bed! Snow is blowin' right past the streetlights and you all are goin to BED! You ought to be ashamed of yourselves! All these years trackin snow, you got a snowstorm and you are goin to BED? All these years trackin snow and you dont know what to do? GET YER ASS OUT OF THAT BED AND JEBWALK! GET OUT IN THAT SNOW, NOW! FOLKS!!!!! 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 what do we need to do to get snowThe stars to align and unicorns to fart - per usual. We need ridging to improve out west and more digging on our end to force that coastal to pop and develop as far south as possible. That at least gives us a shot at seeing some respectable snow before SNE gets theirs. Issue is… it’s a NS driven event, which often trend the opposite direction for obvious reasons. We know how things typically go when we’re rooting for storms to develop further south than progged at day 4. It’s not over yet, still time before Friday.. but less confident in a snowier last min trend with this wave versus the one we’re seeing today due to the setup. It’s still possible I suppose… but this isn’t a simple overrunning event that we need to nudge N and be more amped. Would need to see some pretty drastic improvements by 0z tonight into tomorrow to believe it’s remotely doable. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 3 hours ago, Ji said: what do we need to do to get snow Isn't there snow on the way within hours? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 32 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Isn't there snow on the way within hours? The chase is over. He already sees the back end. The man needs his digital blue. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 5 hours ago, Ji said: JB going blizzard this weekend.....something about kennedy inaugural storm? My mom attended Kennedy’s inauguration in the snow. I don’t think it was a blizzard or she wouldn’t have been there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 5 hours ago, Ji said: JB going blizzard this weekend.....something about kennedy inaugural storm? JB is goofy lol no model shows that. I think JB is sniffing his workout muscle rub lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Prestige Worldwide Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 7 hours ago, Ji said: JB going blizzard this weekend.....something about kennedy inaugural storm? https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1746875741680157062?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 40 minutes ago, Prestige Worldwide said: https://x.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1746875741680157062?s=46&t=j_-aw-4tjFwrt5AoXKNk5A If JB is right and we get a blizzard he will get another 20,000 followers lol... i really dont know what hes looking at lol 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 9 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: If JB is right and we get a blizzard he will get another 20,000 followers lol... i really dont know what hes looking at lol I 95 corridor is long. Maybe he doesn’t mean our part of it. Did he mention the I66 corridor. That’s my favorite corridor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 9 hours ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Geez, at least I had the "decency" to not explicitly spell the name out!! Lol, honestly wasn't even thinking about it. That storm really didn't bother me...it was an obvious sketchy setup. I've been doing this hobby too long and knew it had "wide right" potential. I would even say "01" didn't bother me much either. It was like almost 60 degrees the day before, so that was also becoming sketchy. I'd say "13" was the most annoying one because it was our last chance to break the snow drought that season. Once you realize that our average high temp in January is 10 degrees above freezing, it all starts to make sense. When it snows here, ya just gotta enjoy it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 1 hour ago, winter_warlock said: If JB is right and we get a blizzard he will get another 20,000 followers lol... i really dont know what hes looking at lol Nothing. He is playing a game. He is targeting snow weenies that just want smoke blown up their ass. Then he makes incredibly vague predictions. If anywhere along 95 from DC to Portland gets 3” and a breeze he will claim victory and exaggerate the accomplishment. If nothing happens it’s oh well and on to the next. By the time it fails he’s already talking about whatever is next and hooked his audience on that. He sells hopium. I know it’s an act because I used to actually communicate with him some when I was a meteorology major at psu. He was always a weenie but he wasn’t crazy then. The reason I know he doesn’t believe what he says is I remember some “rules” he knew back then that he has since ignored. One example. This doesn’t affect us much because a east based Nina w a -QBO is just cold and dry. But they are very snowy NYC to Boston. Many years ago he showed how a chart where an east based Nina -QBO was very cold in the NE. But on that same chart it also showed that a west based Nina w a -QBO was very warm. The QBO loses its effect. So I know he knows that because he was the reason I know that! Then some years later after he joined wxbell he ignited his own role and forecasted cold and snow and of course busted really bad. But I knew he knew it was BS. He did that several other times. Said things I knew from the past he knew was untrue. Eventually I stopped reading or watching him at all. But I’m 100% convinced he isn’t making honest forecasts. He isn’t just a crazy weenie. It’s a business strategy. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeDeeHCue Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 We already know what we need to do to reel in 1/19: create a sacrificial storm thread thread, then create a new one bring it back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 42 minutes ago, 87storms said: Lol, honestly wasn't even thinking about it. That storm really didn't bother me...it was an obvious sketchy setup. I've been doing this hobby too long and knew it had "wide right" potential. I would even say "01" didn't bother me much either. It was like almost 60 degrees the day before, so that was also becoming sketchy. I'd say "13" was the most annoying one because it was our last chance to break the snow drought that season. Once you realize that our average high temp in January is 10 degrees above freezing, it all starts to make sense. When it snows here, ya just gotta enjoy it. Haha, I know...I was just saying that for humor after getting (properly) admonished for mentioning that particular event! Usually I just say "The Storm Which Shall Not Be Named" (a'la Voldemort!), LOL!! Anyhow, yeah, I mostly agree with what you say here, we've had plenty of "near misses" that sucked. But I think "that one" is impressed upon so many people's memory here because we were coming off that amazing record-breaking winter of 2009-10, and then it was pretty cold the following year in Dec. 2010, so expectations and all were perhaps elevated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Nothing. He is playing a game. He is targeting snow weenies that just want smoke blown up their ass. Then he makes incredibly vague predictions. If anywhere along 95 from DC to Portland gets 3” and a breeze he will claim victory and exaggerate the accomplishment. If nothing happens it’s oh well and on to the next. By the time it fails he’s already talking about whatever is next and hooked his audience on that. He sells hopium. I know it’s an act because I used to actually communicate with him some when I was a meteorology major at psu. He was always a weenie but he wasn’t crazy then. The reason I know he doesn’t believe what he says is I remember some “rules” he knew back then that he has since ignored. One example. This doesn’t affect us much because a east based Nina w a -QBO is just cold and dry. But they are very snowy NYC to Boston. Many years ago he showed how a chart where an east based Nina -QBO was very cold in the NE. But on that same chart it also showed that a west based Nina w a -QBO was very warm. The QBO loses its effect. So I know he knows that because he was the reason I know that! Then some years later after he joined wxbell he ignited his own role and forecasted cold and snow and of course busted really bad. But I knew he knew it was BS. He did that several other times. Said things I knew from the past he knew was untrue. Eventually I stopped reading or watching him at all. But I’m 100% convinced he isn’t making honest forecasts. He isn’t just a crazy weenie. It’s a business strategy. Amen brother!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Nothing. He is playing a game. He is targeting snow weenies that just want smoke blown up their ass. Then he makes incredibly vague predictions. If anywhere along 95 from DC to Portland gets 3” and a breeze he will claim victory and exaggerate the accomplishment. If nothing happens it’s oh well and on to the next. By the time it fails he’s already talking about whatever is next and hooked his audience on that. He sells hopium. I know it’s an act because I used to actually communicate with him some when I was a meteorology major at psu. He was always a weenie but he wasn’t crazy then. The reason I know he doesn’t believe what he says is I remember some “rules” he knew back then that he has since ignored. One example. This doesn’t affect us much because a east based Nina w a -QBO is just cold and dry. But they are very snowy NYC to Boston. Many years ago he showed how a chart where an east based Nina -QBO was very cold in the NE. But on that same chart it also showed that a west based Nina w a -QBO was very warm. The QBO loses its effect. So I know he knows that because he was the reason I know that! Then some years later after he joined wxbell he ignited his own role and forecasted cold and snow and of course busted really bad. But I knew he knew it was BS. He did that several other times. Said things I knew from the past he knew was untrue. Eventually I stopped reading or watching him at all. But I’m 100% convinced he isn’t making honest forecasts. He isn’t just a crazy weenie. It’s a business strategy. I knew someone who used to work with him I think while at Accu-Weather, and he didn't care much for JB either. Thought JB had good knowledge but was a bit arrogant and always "CYA" for anything he got incorrect, saying things like, "well, I got the pattern right but the meteorology wrong!", or something along those lines. I've mentioned this before but he'd always use the weasel words such as "coldest month...RELATIVE TO AVERAGES". I swear once he used that to claim that March was the "coldest month of the winter" (RELATIVE TO AVERAGES, mind you!), and then claim victory that his call for a "very cold 2nd half of winter" was correct or whatever. I used to joke that using his logic, I could claim a rather cool July is the coldest month of the year, relative to averages!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On the JB stuff; Welcome to 20+ years ago. So many stories. Anyway....I am hoping we can still pull out something with this Friday storms, even if its another 1-3. After that, I grow concerned about the pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Just now, RevWarReenactor said: On the JB stuff; Welcome to 20+ years ago. So many stories. Anyway....I am hoping we can still pull out something with this Friday storms, even if its another 1-3. After that, I grow concerned about the pattern. I think all models have been advertising a relax soon after whatever occurs Fri-Sat (i.e., the following week). But I also thought indications were that warmup/relax would be relatively short-lived and we'd be morphing back into a favorable look by the end of the month. I gave a quick glance at the GEFS mean the other day and that seemed to be the case, but I'll let others who have been following that chime in with better detail. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 25 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: I think all models have been advertising a relax soon after whatever occurs Fri-Sat (i.e., the following week). But I also thought indications were that warmup/relax would be relatively short-lived and we'd be morphing back into a favorable look by the end of the month. I gave a quick glance at the GEFS mean the other day and that seemed to be the case, but I'll let others who have been following that chime in with better detail. The relax is quite different than a pac jet type of pattern. That's happened so much recently that a "relax" is becoming synonymous with "continental Pac invasion" lol. When cold retreats next week, flow will be slow and cold will mostly just decay and not be "replaced". What brings cold back on the ens is a very efficient way to go from warm/blah to a single front then cold enuff. Cold continental air from central Canada pushes down into the conus SE over the lakes into the east. Ens guidance unanimously agrees that the Epo and/or pna ridges remain favorable. Potentially for weeks. In this type of setup a -AO regime delivers the goods because of favorable ridge axis offsetting lack of a NAO block when the AO displaces the TPV to hudson bay or south. The look reminds me of Feb/Mar 2003. Eta: I left out transient 50/50s would be the key piece for a big storm with the advertised look going into early Feb. We'll see about the NAO. So far it doesn't look to reload quickly 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 35 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: I knew someone who used to work with him I think while at Accu-Weather, and he didn't care much for JB either. Thought JB had good knowledge but was a bit arrogant and always "CYA" for anything he got incorrect, saying things like, "well, I got the pattern right but the meteorology wrong!", or something along those lines. I've mentioned this before but he'd always use the weasel words such as "coldest month...RELATIVE TO AVERAGES". I swear once he used that to claim that March was the "coldest month of the winter" (RELATIVE TO AVERAGES, mind you!), and then claim victory that his call for a "very cold 2nd half of winter" was correct or whatever. I used to joke that using his logic, I could claim a rather cool July is the coldest month of the year, relative to averages!!! One year he used IADs snow but DCAs avg to verify his mid Atlantic snow forecast!!! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Gfs back with something Friday. 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 End of week event is another long duration light event on the GFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Gfs back with something Friday. Dang man if only we had stronger southern wave!! But hey if we can get another 1-3 inches I'd take that and hope for something more in our prime window. At least January wouldn't be a shut out! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Wow, Friday/Saturday look cold with snow now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 43 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: Eta: I left out transient 50/50s would be the key piece for a big storm with the advertised look going into early Feb. We'll see about the NAO. So far it doesn't look to reload quickly Question: Aren't those a bit more of a crapshoot/chaos? (Then again that may be our snow climo, haha) And I'm trying to remember the last time one actually worked, lol Now when we're tracking a couple of waves it's usually "well if that cutter trends strong enough then...50-50 " but I tune it out because I can't remember when it worked recently. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
osfan24 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Gfs back with something Friday. Needs a lot of work but if it would start trending now like todays storm has over the past 24 hours or so we could really have something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 ICON likes Friday too for a light event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 And the Canadian has a nice event! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 34 minutes ago, Bob Chill said: The relax is quite different than a pac jet type of pattern. That's happened so much recently that a "relax" is becoming synonymous with "continental Pac invasion" lol. When cold retreats next week, flow will be slow and cold will mostly just decay and not be "replaced". What brings cold back on the ens is a very efficient way to go from warm/blah to a single front then cold enuff. Cold continental air from central Canada pushes down into the conus SE over the lakes into the east. Ens guidance unanimously agrees that the Epo and/or pna ridges remain favorable. Potentially for weeks. In this type of setup a -AO regime delivers the goods because of favorable ridge axis offsetting lack of a NAO block when the AO displaces the TPV to hudson bay or south. The look reminds me of Feb/Mar 2003. Eta: I left out transient 50/50s would be the key piece for a big storm with the advertised look going into early Feb. We'll see about the NAO. So far it doesn't look to reload quickly Oddly both ninos that had that kinda look 2003 and 2015 ended up with big snows from well timed confluence and stj waves directed at us. Obviously 2015 wasn’t to the same level but I’m not kicking those two 6-12” storms in Feb/March out a bed! I think having a stronger stj is likely the difference because that’s a cold dry look often in non ninos. I don’t count 2014 because it had a very -AO and a ridge over the tpv that acted like a defacto -nao. But add a stronger stj and you get more chances plus some of those waves end up 50/50 lows as they traverse. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeDeeHCue Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 How much will the existing storm system affect the dynamic of the 1/19 one, @psuhoffman? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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