MillvilleWx Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 10:19 PM, psuhoffman said: @Terpeast @WxUSAF @MillvilleWxI’ve noticed the last 24 hours the runs that are more suppressive with the TPV get the NS track we need but the wave ends up more suppressed with almost no STJ interaction. The less suppressive runs have a bigger storm but the NS wave comes across further north and so it’s mostly a Philly northeast storm. So what’s the path for us? What do we root for? My gut says more suppressive flow combined with stronger SW. But those runs seem to have less STJ and so it’s not much better. Expand I have not paid much attention to this setup because I’ve been focused with the short term threat, so I will differ to the others. @CAPE has a great breakdown and I agree on his analysis. This setup is the precursor to the next one, so we have a bit of a ways to go. By Tuesday, we’ll have a better handle. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 14, 2024 Share Posted January 14, 2024 The trough looks too far east..."for now", it has the look of a classic Miller B aka congrats Maine to Nova Scotia. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 On 1/14/2024 at 10:53 PM, CAPE said: Something like this is probably what we need. I don't see how it gets better than this. Need the energy embedded in the flow overtop the ridge to phase with TPV vorticity and sharpen and really dig. The PNA ridge axis is also a pretty important factor here. The southern stream is just meh. Has looked that way forever with this threat. No matter what it seems the tendency is for the low to form a bit late and strengthen offshore. Need it to pop to our south and not at our latitude to have a legit chance. Expand Even that run was kinda meh. I went and looked at the individual members from the last few ensembles. I noticed something. The handful of members with a big 10”+ hit for DC there is a theme where it seems they run the NS wave way out ahead and wash it out then a stj wave develops behind that wave and phase with the trailing energy as the tail of the trough rotates down. Maybe the truth is there is no path with that NS SW we’re keying on now. If we want a big storm we need that to get out of the way so the energy rounding the tail of the trough can phase with thr stj? Dunno just an observation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 euro probs would have been better if it went out further btw, better angular momentum and pna 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Ok, GFS time. Out west s/w is noticeable more diggy and sagging to the SW. Pacific ridging is better 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Positive changes. Better ridging out west, a bit more amp'd in front, but temper expectations. It doesn't have "the look". Well as of right now...subject to change Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Snow looks to start around 3z-5z FRIDAY.. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 lol, we're in a gap at 105...like a snowhole over us..and the coastal is gonna take away the rest it seems. we might get skipped 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 It's a screwjob. H5 got better. sfc got worse 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 1 to 3 for mt psu 0-0 for most of the subforum, with some accumulations to the SE in VA 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 On 1/15/2024 at 4:02 AM, stormtracker said: It's a screwjob. H5 got better. sfc got worse Expand Well over 100 hours away im sure alot will change lol just like it did for the storm on the 16th Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 lol 1 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 On 1/15/2024 at 4:04 AM, psuhoffman said: lol Expand Looks like an ink blot in a shrinks office lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 On 1/15/2024 at 4:04 AM, psuhoffman said: lol Expand Kinda reminiscent of B**ing D*y 2010! 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 On 1/15/2024 at 4:02 AM, stormtracker said: It's a screwjob. H5 got better. sfc got worse Expand I thought it was going to be better too. But classic DC split. We really needed a dominant stj wave to come along. If it’s all NS we’re fighting an uphill battle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Canadian better. Still plenty of time for the details to get worked out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 On 1/15/2024 at 4:07 AM, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Kinda reminiscent of B**ing D*y 2010! Expand Ban this poster 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 Better do a “Jebman” shovel piles of snow tomorrow and Tuesday in case Friday goes to hell. That way everyone still has a lovely stockpile of white fluff in the back yard. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 On 1/15/2024 at 4:11 AM, snowfan said: Canadian better. Still plenty of time for the details to get worked out. Expand Looks alot like the 12z Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 On 1/15/2024 at 4:11 AM, snowfan said: Canadian better. Still plenty of time for the details to get worked out. We’ve learned the formula 1) start thread2) falls apart 3) start new thread 4) looks better 5) profit?? 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 On 1/15/2024 at 4:07 AM, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Kinda reminiscent of B**ing D*y 2010! Expand MODS 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 On 1/15/2024 at 4:13 AM, WinterWxLuvr said: Ban this poster Expand The absolutely worst storm to bring up is March 01. This one is second. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 On 1/15/2024 at 4:07 AM, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Kinda reminiscent of B**ing D*y 2010! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 On 1/15/2024 at 4:07 AM, Scarlet Pimpernel said: Kinda reminiscent of B**ing D*y 2010! Expand Why I oughta...... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 If you guys think Boxing Day was bad, try growing up in the 80s and 90s. It seemed like every winter had at least one failed event, usually because of the mountains and/or temps. Models are way better now. That said, there were also a lot more surprises to cancel things out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 On 1/15/2024 at 4:29 AM, 87storms said: If you guys think Boxing Day was bad, try growing up in the 80s and 90s. It seemed like every winter had at least one failed event, usually because of the mountains and/or temps. Models are way better now. That said, there were also a lot more surprises to cancel things out. Expand Geez, at least I had the "decency" to not explicitly spell the name out!! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 On 1/15/2024 at 4:09 AM, psuhoffman said: I thought it was going to be better too. But classic DC split. We really needed a dominant stj wave to come along. If it’s all NS we’re fighting an uphill battle. Expand Has the STJ been unusually dormant for a Nino? My understanding is that STJ systems are the Nino bread and butter but seems less fruitful than hoped so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 On 1/15/2024 at 4:34 AM, cbmclean said: Has the STJ been unusually dormant for a Nino? My understanding is that STJ systems are the Nino bread and butter but seems less fruitful than hoped so far. Expand It hasn't been dormant at all actually, lol It's been very active: but slightly suppressed under the tpv that's been over us this month. When you look at model runs, look at the waves coming across the south. It's definitely there! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 what do we need to do to get snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 15, 2024 Share Posted January 15, 2024 JB going blizzard this weekend.....something about kennedy inaugural storm? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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