DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Central Southern Jersey get destroyed. It just gets going too late for us. A general 2 to 4 for us Like I mentioned above, a little inverted trough look to that QPF max. That area has done well with those looks in the past. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I think it looks pretty good 4-5 days out. Let's see what GEFS says....need a little more dig, more neutral to negative trough , and note the stronger west coast ridge. Now the experts can say I'm wrong.... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Gfs is more amplified with the SW: good. But it comes across further north. Bad. It doesn’t matter how amplified it is if it tracks to our north. We need more amplified AND south. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gfs is more amplified with the SW: good. But it comes across further north. Bad. It doesn’t matter how amplified it is if it tracks to our north. We need more amplified AND south. We're close. I don't hate where we are at this juncture. Let's snow the next 2 days and whip this one into shape. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 5 minutes ago, DDweatherman said: We're close. I don't hate where we are at this juncture. Let's snow the next 2 days and whip this one into shape. I’m not out. Still interested. But I don’t like going into the last 100 hours needing a south trend on a NS SW. that’s not usually a good spot. But this is the kind of situation it could happen. We might actually want to root for a more suppressive flow. Yea it will minimize the potential some but if rather had a 3-6” snow than 1-2 and NYC gets 20”! The more amplified solutions might also be the further north ones. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Canadian on board for a light event for Friday. 1 to 3. This feels like there could be some upside with minor tweaks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 20 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I’m not out. Still interested. But I don’t like going into the last 100 hours needing a south trend on a NS SW. that’s not usually a good spot. But this is the kind of situation it could happen. We might actually want to root for a more suppressive flow. Yea it will minimize the potential some but if rather had a 3-6” snow than 1-2 and NYC gets 20”! The more amplified solutions might also be the further north ones. So now the suppressive tpv we've had is finally shoving off...but as a result more amped and north? Of course, lol Maybe there could be some suppressive flow left over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 16 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: So now the suppressive tpv we've had is finally shoving off...but as a result more amped and north? Of course, lol Maybe there could be some suppressive flow left over... The tpv never fully gets to 50/50 until late and by then the block is retrograding too much. For this setup it’s still a little west as the NS wave crashes the west so it guarantees it dives in and we need phasing. It’s kinda bad luck we don’t get a stronger stj wave! But if we need to go it with a NS wave it takes more suppression to force that under us that a STJ wave. Different setups require different things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Beggars can't be choosers. I'm glad we should finally have a wintry week. Snow showers today. Possible light, steady snow Monday night/Tuesday(maybe first inch in years), another possible threat Friday. Very cold all week. It does look like it gets mild the following week, I'm not sure how long that's expected to last, but I'll enjoy whatever presents itself this week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Beggars can't be choosers. I'm glad we should finally have a wintry week. Snow showers today. Possible light, steady snow Monday night/Tuesday(maybe first inch in years), another possible threat Friday. Very cold all week. It does look like it gets mild the following week, I'm not sure how long that's expected to last, but I'll enjoy whatever presents itself this week. I think it’s very short lived. Reloading should happen rapidly like Bob alluded to. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 WB 12Z GEFS, couple heavy hitter on GEFS, we wait. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Gefs is much better. This is where I want it. 16 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Gefs is much better. This is where I want it. How's this compare to the previous couple of GEFS cycles? Don't think I saw those posted from last night and this morning. Just curious... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 12Z GEFS, couple heavy hitter on GEFS, we wait. The top ensembles is the totals from boths storms this week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 The tpv never fully gets to 50/50 until late and by then the block is retrograding too much. For this setup it’s still a little west as the NS wave crashes the west so it guarantees it dives in and we need phasing. It’s kinda bad luck we don’t get a stronger stj wave! But if we need to go it with a NS wave it takes more suppression to force that under us that a STJ wave. Different setups require different things. Shame too because the #1 analog on cansips yesterday was blizzard of 96 lol. The setup is there it’s just some things are slightly misplaced here and there for a full phase monster. Not going to get that barring a miracle, but we can certainly do well. Wish i had the means to get to Nova Scotia for this one lol.I bet if you took the GFS run and just shifted the entire planets H5 pattern west a little bet we’d get a blizzard of 96-like solution ha 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Ensembles look nice. Give us one more NW tick and I’m sold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, winter_warlock said: The top ensembles is the totals from boths storms this week Yeah had to look twice and then realized that. Every member in the overall total is easily >2" area-wide, even more than that. But that 24-h total for the 2nd storm didn't quite match up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 9 minutes ago, Scarlet Pimpernel said: How's this compare to the previous couple of GEFS cycles? Don't think I saw those posted from last night and this morning. Just curious... There was nothing worth posting. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 so there are some changes at h5 (slightly less diggy out west, TPV kinda pressing a bit more)..but I'm not sure I can call it yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 I'm like the networks on election nights...gotta be sure...well except that one time in 2000 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: so there are some changes at h5 (slightly less diggy out west, TPV kinda pressing a bit more)..but I'm not sure I can call it yet TPV press could keep it under us at least. We need two kinds contradictory things. More amped but also a further south track of the SW. For now south is more important imo. We can get it juiced up a bit later. But if we go into the home stretch with the NS SW too far north it’s probably game over. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 snowing at 120...7am Friday 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Well it seems south but…WAY weaker lol. I was thinking slightly weaker not totally squashed. But I’d still prefer this than amped north of us. We’ve seen things amp up some at the end. We almost never see a NS wave trend south at the very end. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: TPV press could keep it under us at least. We need two kinds contradictory things. More amped but also a further south track of the SW. For now south is more important imo. We can get it juiced up a bit later. But if we go into the home stretch with the NS SW too far north it’s probably game over. It's a slightly wetter run so far from dc up to you...but it's not gonna do what we want Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Plus if the SW can survive at all it has a chance to amp once it gets close to us as the trough splits and amplifies over us. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 126. 850 plenty cold. freezing line just north of dc. 129 Mt Psu flirts with sfc fzg line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: It's a slightly wetter run so far from dc up to you...but it's not gonna do what we want I’m only to 120 but I think I like it a lot more than 0z 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 just about done but still going 7m Sat.. freezing collapses down to dc then south of it at 10pm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I’m only to 120 but I think I like it a lot more than 0z oh, it's wetter for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Should have posted this earlier, but the ECMWF ML FuXi model ("Foo-chi") is pretty optimistic for the Friday system as well. All totaled, at least ~10mm total, perhaps more since we don't really see the full resolution. That's like 0.4"-ish. Not bad. It should be noted that the FuXi was consistent in having 0.15-0.30" with the Mon-Tue system, which appears pretty reasonable now. https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/fuxi_medium-mslp-rain?base_time=202401140000&interval=12&projection=opencharts_north_america&valid_time=202401150000 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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