Heisy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Bleh It’s close man, gfs was the last model to finally come on board with the wave crashing on shore so it’s the weakest of them all. For fun check out end of icon near Washington state that was a beast coming on shore. Setup is there just once again see if we can finally get lucky . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Heisy said: It’s close man, gfs was the last model to finally come on board with the wave crashing on shore so it’s the weakest of them all. For fun check out end of icon near Washington state that was a beast coming on shore. Setup is there just once again see if we can finally get lucky . I still think we have a chance at 1-3/2-4 for the first threat. Hopefully something bigger for the 20th. What’s @tombo82685 saying? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I can't talk whether you're just ignoring what people say to refute this on purpose or you actually can't see it. Rainstorms are rainstorms and nobody pays attention to shifts in track because they don't typically matter to most of us! Why can't you see that? Model waffling happens all year around--just largely unnoticed.I forecast them and all winter they have been spot on long range 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 16 minutes ago, Heisy said: For this threat root for the energy crashing on shore to trend stronger and for the tpv to tick East which imo will trap the incoming wave under it with the established block. We gotta cash something on these two threats . Cash Out bro while it's still a value 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Folks, remember this for whatever little winter we have left: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Folks, remember this for whatever little winter we have left: Great question. This is the worst i have seen the models perform, i think. Perplexing to me that they always show snow to rain/nothing. But never rain to snow?. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 3 minutes ago, Imgoinhungry said: Great question. This is the worst i have seen the models perform, i think. Perplexing to me that they always show snow to rain/nothing. But never rain to snow? . And never nothing to sudden surprise snow inside 96 hours Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Use to happen 10 years ago where things would trend right on the models at the last minute. Its just not a thing anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Much stronger and more defined southern stream s/w at 18z by next Thursday. I believe it. Just need to establish cold for a few days. We’ve been A students at precip lately. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 And never nothing to sudden surprise snow inside 96 hours I think that happens more with clippers or in a zonal flow. We just need the gom to be open for business when we get those little diggy NS vorts. Problem is we’ve had a helluva time getting those vorts to track further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 WB 18Z GFS pretty pathetic through Friday.At this point I might as well go visit my Alma mater (university at buffalo) if I want to see some legit snow. Last week’s foot in NY helped soothed my weenie soul but I need more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowDreamer Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 56 minutes ago, Paleocene said: And never nothing to sudden surprise snow inside 96 hours Not that I'm not bummed, but we do sometimes get good trends. Jan 3rd 2022 was a late trend North which increased totals for many by a lot. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Some of the worst driving conditions driving up into Garrett County. Near White out at times the entire way to Friendsville. Several inches of snow on the ground 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdhokie Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 11 minutes ago, Ravens94 said: Dang! Stay safe! It started as sleet at my house in Swanton but now its just rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Wow, this screams MECS+ for Ne, if we can back up the trough a little more we could get in on this as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Cash Out bro while it's still a valueNah I’m all in for second threat. If it fails I’ll delete wxbell . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 How are we looking wrt the textbook KU upper air pattern the ens means had for late week? Still showing the same thing? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 Still a storm there on the gfs and cmc...gfs actually looked more SS to my novice eyes despite this run just missing south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 You can’t make this shit up 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 There is a very good possibility we make it February without snow. Despite all the epic looks and epic weeklies and mintSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 21 minutes ago, Ji said: There is a very good possibility we make it February without snow. Despite all the epic looks and epic weeklies and mint Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Panic Room, brother...that's why it's there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 There is a very good possibility we make it February without snow. Despite all the epic looks and epic weeklies and mintSent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkPlease take it to the panic room . 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 WB 6Z GFS thru Sat Am. My snow hole continues.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 11 hours ago, Heisy said: Wow, this screams MECS+ for Ne, if we can back up the trough a little more we could get in on this as well . This window has held potential for awhile now because of the advertised favorable h5 setup. I have been monitoring it ever since it showed up on the ens guidance, and one key missing component has been any southern stream energy of significance. The primary energy for the possible storm is embedded in the flow overtop the western ridge. That can work if it digs far enough south, but we need some NS energy associated with the TPV to get involved. By this time it is shifting into eastern Canada, with the tendency for interaction/a phase to occur a little late for the MA. Also doesn't help that the PNA ridge axis is modeled to shift eastward during this time. The ens means have been very consistent with a signal for low pressure forming around our latitude and strengthening as it moves northeastward offshore. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 And this is how it can work- we get that interaction and enough dig at just the right time to induce low pressure at the coast. Its a glancing blow though and a great outcome for north of Philly to SNE. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 That low track is pretty far offshore- looks like an inverted trough type deal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 27 minutes ago, CAPE said: And this is how it can work- we get that interaction and enough dig at just the right time to induce low pressure at the coast. Its a glancing blow though and a great outcome for north of Philly to SNE. Too bad ridge axis is not near Boise. Is GFS hour 384 still showing cross polar flow as psu mentioned a couple days back.? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 21 minutes ago, CAPE said: That low track is pretty far offshore- looks like an inverted trough type deal. Oh, the dreaded inverted trough those rarely work out, but when they do they are interesting. The last one to visit around here I think was like 2008 or so. We picked up 7" of snow while 30 miles away the skies were clear to the north with the moon out and a few passing clouds go 13 miles southeast they picked up 13" go 13 miles southwest they picked up 2". They are interesting and fun to track. Right now, we are looking for anything that will work at this point and an inverted trough is an interesting one. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now