Weather Will Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Miller Bs always work out for the MA. EURO will be rock solid on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Is it possible to get a low in the MA that isn’t 1075 mb? 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1-3 and 2-4 are and always have been typical winter “storms”. Setting the bar at 6+ is gonna leave you high and dry almost all of the time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I don’t love the miller B look, which makes it possible for NW of DC to miss both upcoming threats. I’d be pissed if it happened That's my concern lol. Tennessee valley sees snow on Monday. North East gets it next Friday/Saturday. We're in the middle. I think there was some crazy 1400 hour snow maps that kind of looked that way a couple weeks ago. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 16 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I don’t love the miller B look, which makes it possible for NW of DC to miss both upcoming threats. I’d be pissed if it happened There is a frontrunner piece of vorticity, then the stronger piece comes in behind. If that digs further south and the coastal low pops off the NC coast instead of DE, we are probably referring to this as a 'dual low structure' instead of a Miller B. We just need a little more dig in general, regardless of whether there is an initial weaker low or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 13 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I don’t love the miller B look, which makes it possible for NW of DC to miss both upcoming threats. I’d be pissed if it happened I don't love the current look, BUT I do like where it's heading. It was all NS before today, which is why we weren't getting any good looks at all. The euro is kind of a hybrid now, it does activate a weak STJ wave and begins to amplify it while its still in the TN valley. I would love to see it become STJ dominant v a hybrid but its already a much better look that a pure NS miller b and its trending towards more STJ interaction today. If we get one more trend the same way as the last 24 hours suddenly we have a big dog look. IMO its already moved towards a progression that is at least unlikely to miss us completely, but the threat that it is only a modest event here and more significant further north is real. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Quite cold behind the Friday system. The Ravens will finally play a home playoff game in freezing weather. If Buffalo beats Pittsburg which is likely then that game will be ridiculous. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: Quite cold behind the Friday system. The Ravens will finally play a home playoff game in freezing weather. If Buffalo beats Pittsburg which is likely then that game will be ridiculous. You don't think Mason Rudolph will be throwing lasers through the wind and blowing snow in Buffalo? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 24 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 1-3 and 2-4 are and always have been typical winter “storms”. Setting the bar at 6+ is gonna leave you high and dry almost all of the time. I just want to see an inch at this point. I feel like it's been forever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 EPS likes something miller B-coastal-ish for the 19th-20th period. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 32 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: 1-3 and 2-4 are and always have been typical winter “storms”. Cm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The "other side" of whatever slight warm up we get is now on the GFS and its wicked cold. This is much closer to a Feb 2003, 2015 look than 2010 which is fine, just a different way to win. The ideal progression would be that dumps the cold back down...then the NAO tanks again with cold trapped under it. That's how we roll through into March with threat after threat. And its actually what the guidance suggests. 12 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 minutes ago, Yeoman said: Cm We were talking about snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 52 minutes ago, CAPE said: Looks better than Tuesday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3pm AFD from LWX mentions end of next week as a more "traditional threat" .LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/... Below normal temperatures and the threat for wintry precipitation headline the medium range. There is medium confidence in well below normal temperatures and dangerously cold wind chills, but the threat of snow or wintry precipitation remains highly uncertain. Anomalous ridging over the Polar regions of the Northern Hemisphere will force Arctic air southward across much of the CONUS for most of next week. The brunt of the cold will be on our doorstep locally early in the week, before spreading over the rest of the area by the middle of next week. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure - driven by a shortwave currently trapped in a cyclonic gyre over NW Canada - will likely induce an area of low pressure that will track from the Mid-South to near the Carolina or Mid-Atlantic Coast late Monday through early Wednesday. Exact timing remains uncertain, and timing of this wave with added energy from the Arctic intrusion will be crucial in determining the extent of any snow/wintry precip impacts across the Mid-Atlantic. Deterministic guidance has been attempting to come into somewhat better agreement, but the Euro (through 06z) remains a flatter/drier outlier. For this reason, ensemble means and probabilities have remained nearly steady from values 24 hours ago. As energy for this system ejects into the NW CONUS and is better sampled, guidance should get a better handle on the outcome over the next 1 to 2 days. Following this system, strong winds coupled with well below normal temperatures will likely result in wind chills in the single digits on either size of zero by early Wednesday morning, with even colder values over the higher terrain. Winds will abate a bit by Wednesday night into Thursday, though below normal temperatures will persist. By the end of next week, the aforementioned low will be absorbed in a developing cutoff near Newfoundland. This, coupled with ridging near the West Coast, and lower heights in between over the OH/TN Valley, are a more traditional setup for wintry weather locally. Therefore, the threat of wintry precipitation may re-appear by the end of next week. && 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Love seeing this in January, even if the precip map shows below normal. I hunt cold! 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 To be fair, every run since November has been mint and I will give credit where it is due, I have seen my mint green grass every day his winter.You must be a life coach. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 For my own sanity I’ll move to the second threat. . 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Much stronger and more defined southern stream s/w at 18z by next Thursday. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Much stronger and more defined southern stream s/w at 18z by next Thursday. Yes sir. HP dropping in faster this run too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: Yes sir. HP dropping in faster this run too. But then it all separates and turns into a shit sandwich. Some light snow verbatim, but looked better than 12z for awhile. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Much stronger and more defined southern stream s/w at 18z by next Thursday. again....nothing. Never happens with our rainstorms 1 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 10 minutes ago, Heisy said: For my own sanity I’ll move to the second threat. . Bleh 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Cold and dry and then reload for Feb 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 WB 18Z GFS pretty pathetic through Friday. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Cold and dry and then reload for Feb Gut looks to be right. Never bet against the gut, blech 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 7 minutes ago, Ji said: again....nothing. Never happens with our rainstorms I can't talk whether you're just ignoring what people say to refute this on purpose or you actually can't see it. Rainstorms are rainstorms and nobody pays attention to shifts in track because they don't typically matter to most of us! Why can't you see that? Model waffling happens all year around--just largely unnoticed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Does anyone else think it might be a little warm for the 2nd storm? That's a 500mb 482dm low off the south coast of Greenland at 165hr (++nao) and a 593dm high north of Puerto Rico. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 For this threat root for the energy crashing on shore to trend stronger and for the tpv to tick East which imo will trap the incoming wave under it with the established block. We gotta cash something on these two threats . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Ooh I get it now- this is the 'total obliteration (of our hopes and dreams) is coming' thread! 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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