NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 4:51 PM, StormyClearweather said: Ukie Expand I'm gonna keep it real I would rather the storm fade into oblivion then this be a NW of 95 special. Sorry 4 4 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 4:41 PM, Maestrobjwa said: Don't know why we can't seem to have snow-cover when we get a cold snap like that...don't think it's happened since 2014! Expand It's because we often warm up after our decent snows and it takes time for the cold to get reestablished. We'll even lose snowcover when we get cold following moderate snow because of insolation/melt or sublimation. There are rarer times when we get extended snowcover and cold, but it's simply not our climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 4:52 PM, WxUSAF said: H/T to @mitchnick: Ukie is amped. 995mb over ACY. Expand Is that snow map above the amped Ukie? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 4:54 PM, BristowWx said: Is that snow map above the amped Ukie? Expand Yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 4:31 PM, clskinsfan said: Only place above freezing on the east coast is the southern half of Florida. Whatever does fall is going to be a glacier. Expand If its about 15 around DC at 1am then unless there was a strong cold frontb 8 or so hours before then daytime highs preceding and following ranging 25-30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 4:51 PM, StormyClearweather said: Ukie Expand Not a good trend. I will add that we are still a good ways away from this. Plenty of time for change. And for once I’d say slower is better. If this ends up a late Tues/We storm it might be a good thing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Uncle is now over amplified. Model pendulums today Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 4:53 PM, NorthArlington101 said: I'm gonna keep it real I would rather the storm fade into oblivion then this be a NW of 95 special. Sorry Expand Temps sort of weird on the UKMET, we get a decent slug of precip: but this is the warmest panel at the surface, amped/sleet/rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 4:53 PM, NorthArlington101 said: I'm gonna keep it real I would rather the storm fade into oblivion then this be a NW of 95 special. Sorry Expand Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 4:55 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Not a good trend. I will add that we are still a good ways away from this. Plenty of time for change. And for once I’d say slower is better. If this ends up a late Tues/We storm it might be a good thing Expand It's because the Ukie is overamplied. So I'd say we're in between with the JV models on the board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Warm Nose Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 4:53 PM, NorthArlington101 said: I'm gonna keep it real I would rather the storm fade into oblivion then this be a NW of 95 special. Sorry Expand SN anywhere in the region is a good thing ... I hope you get 8" ... ... and I get 18. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 4:56 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Lol Expand it's an IMBY game and I'm a selfish mf. No apologies 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 4:36 PM, stormtracker said: Really cold...like next week's cold Expand Didn’t you always complain though that you don’t look as svelt in a warm parka in a rowdy cowboy bar?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 4:55 PM, stormtracker said: Uncle is now over amplified. Model pendulums today Expand at this point ill take over amplified instead of under-amplified especially with a good air mass 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StormyClearweather Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 4:55 PM, Paleocene said: Temps sort of weird on the UKMET, we get a great slug of precip: but this is the warmest panel at the surface --- with 850 temps at freezing on 95. so, sleet? Expand That's the 0Z Here's 12Z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 4:55 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: Not a good trend. I will add that we are still a good ways away from this. Plenty of time for change. And for once I’d say slower is better. If this ends up a late Tues/We storm it might be a good thing Expand The low isn’t se and it isn’t the euro so it’s fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 4:38 PM, CAPE said: 12z GEFS a bit further south/offshore compared to 6z. Expand 850’s in the teens? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 4:57 PM, WEATHER53 said: Didn’t you always complain though that you don’t look as svelt in a warm parka in a rowdy cowboy bar?? Expand I mean, it's truth. I'm quite the specimen. I would link up the Instagram, but you and all of the straight men here would become crooked. <sashays away> 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 4:58 PM, Ji said: at this point ill take over amplified instead of under-amplified especially with a good air mass Expand Yes 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Anyone have 13z NBM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 5:00 PM, WxUSAF said: Anyone have 13z NBM? Expand 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 4:58 PM, StormyClearweather said: That's the 0Z Here's 12Z. Expand thanks, edited my post. the amped-ness warms i-95 above freezing, and less precip overall. 850s not great. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 4:58 PM, Ji said: at this point ill take over amplified instead of under-amplified especially with a good air mass Expand Always 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 5:01 PM, NorthArlington101 said: Expand NBM keeps getting worse 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 What’s everyone gut tell them about 12z Euro? More disappointment or throws us a bone and a middle of the road solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BornAgain13 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 5:04 PM, Buddy1987 said: What’s everyone gut tell them about 12z Euro? More disappointment or throws us a bone and a middle of the road solution? Disappointment is my opinion. Sent from my SM-N981U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 5:04 PM, Buddy1987 said: What’s everyone gut tell them about 12z Euro? More disappointment or throws us a bone and a middle of the road solution? Expand I think it's going to hold and we'll all be inconsolable until 18z. 1 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 5:04 PM, BristowWx said: NBM keeps getting worse Expand Isn't it a blend of models? Isn't the blend of models getting a bit worse? Wouldn't that be the expected result of the blended output? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 5:05 PM, AmericanWxFreak said: Isn't it a blend of models? Isn't the blend of models getting a bit worse? Wouldn't that be the expected result of the blended output? Expand yes, yes, and yes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 On 1/12/2024 at 5:04 PM, BristowWx said: NBM keeps getting worse Expand A bit of a drop off from 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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