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Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming


Jebman
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  On 1/12/2024 at 3:57 PM, Interstate said:

The H5 at 90 is not nearly as good as the 6z... IMO

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Agreed, the orientation of the trough and energies for phasing doesn't have the same alignment for clean phasing and giving a nice runway to climb the coast. If I didn't look at surface panels, I'd assume a worse outcome. 

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  On 1/12/2024 at 4:03 PM, brooklynwx99 said:

the GFS and ECMWF still aren't similar. the GFS just didn't amp the trough as much, it didn't change the evolution overall

ezgif-1-05cfc90fa8.thumb.gif.edafaad8bfa3c24dbc1d3f6e005effeb.gif

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This was one of the positives of the GFS to note, the evolution is definitely different in the two, and I wouldn't classify this as a "cave" to the Euro. It's a difference in tilt and amplification that's gonna change from run to run. The problem is we get our 3-4" from the trailing energy amplifying and splitting which is a tough evolution to bank on. 

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