Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

[BristowWx]

at hr18 the high is now 1050...the low is now 1007...both stronger than 6z.  yep.  

[DDweatherman]

4 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Big changes on the gfs 

… at 6 hours

How many people do you think you made pause with that first line? 

[stormtracker]

ok, at 42, ridging in the Pacific NW is a bit better, our s/w is more consolidated and slightly more wester

[DDweatherman]

4 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

at hr18 the high is now 1050...the low is now 1007...both stronger than 6z.  yep.  

One thing to make note of regarding early frames and the evolution is what @psuhoffman was mentioning as to where the GFS camp and Euro camps diverge. The split happens about 60-72 hours into the evolution and how wave intensities are handled. That's absolutely something to watch on the 12z GFS and even on the secondary models (UK, CMC). The euro isn't the euro of old, but messing up evolution of energies 60hrs out would be unusual. 

[Scraff]

2 minutes ago, DDweatherman said:

How many people do you think you made pause with that first line? 

I yelled FFS and threw my phone across the room. I’m cool now. I’m cool. Let’s get this!

[stormtracker]

So far, consistent with 6z

[Terpeast]

At 57, TPV is further northwest

Out west s/w similar, maybe a touch deeper/sharper

[AmericanWxFreak]

nervously awaits the "FOLKS"

[WinterWxLuvr]

The big player doesn’t come on until about hour 72

[Terpeast]

Looks similar to yesterday's 18z

[WinterWxLuvr]

Early but that ridge out west is a little sharper. We need a deeper more neg trough. That might help. We will see

[stormtracker]

Precip on the doorstep at 87

[Terpeast]

TPV bit stronger and a touch further north

[stormtracker]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Early but that ridge out west is a little sharper. We need a deeper more neg trough. That might help. We will see

 

11 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

ok, at 42, ridging in the Pacific NW is a bit better, our s/w is more consolidated and slightly more wester

Keep up son!

[Buddy1987]

2 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Early but that ridge out west is a little sharper. We need a deeper more neg trough. That might help. We will see

500 this does look better thus far at 78 with the western trough axis over western Montana getting more diggy

[Miss Pixee]

Placed food order for delivery today...never know if P15 is incoming...

[stormtracker]

Snow at 93 over the area

[WinterWxLuvr]

A really early call would say this ends better. I’ll grab a towel just in case

[WinterWxLuvr]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Snow at 93 over the area

Slow down son. I’m only to 78 on TT

[Terpeast]

it's early, but I think it's a hold

[Solution Man]

Just now, stormtracker said:

Snow at 93 over the area

Talk dirty to us

[WxUSAF]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

A really early call would say this ends better. I’ll grab a towel just in case

It’s not the euro, that’s for damn sure

[stormtracker]

Not sure it'll be as good as 6z, but still good and NOT like the Euor

[Paleocene]

What's that additional low doing down there in the gulf

[DDweatherman]

Little bit of difference that I don't necessarily love. 

[Interstate]

The H5 at 90 is not nearly as good as the 6z... IMO

[stormtracker]

Yeah, def not as wet as 6z so far...freezing line flirts with i-95, 850 well south of the area

[wncsnow]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

Not sure it'll be as good as 6z, but still good and NOT like the Euor

It is much drier and a step towards the euro

[BristowWx]

Just now, Interstate said:

The H5 at 90 is not nearly as good as the 6z... IMO

nope.  

[DDweatherman]

1 minute ago, Interstate said:

The H5 at 90 is not nearly as good as the 6z... IMO

Agreed, the orientation of the trough and energies for phasing doesn't have the same alignment for clean phasing and giving a nice runway to climb the coast. If I didn't look at surface panels, I'd assume a worse outcome.