winter_warlock Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 All models are in line except euro... Euro is looking like a drunk uncle lol Well. Only 4 days away now. Ud think euro would get more in line. Hopefully euro puts the tequila bottle down and joins the rest at 06z lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, winter_warlock said: All models are in line except euro... Euro is looking like a drunk uncle lol Well. Only 4 days away now. Ud think euro would get more in line. Hopefully euro puts the tequila bottle down and joins the rest at 06z lol Not sure I've ever seen this much of a difference between euro and gfs at day 4. But not sure I've seen models jump so much run to run within 5 days Lots of moving pieces for the models to nail down. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: All models are in line except euro... Euro is looking like a drunk uncle lol Well. Only 4 days away now. Ud think euro would get more in line. Hopefully euro puts the tequila bottle down and joins the rest at 06z lol You hope the Euro is drunk... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 WB 6Z GEFS low locations compared to yesterday 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Let it finish dude lol 12 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 We truly have a model war between EURO and GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: You hope the Euro is drunk... Yeahhh i hope lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, winter_warlock said: Yeahhh i hope lol We all do even down here in WNC. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 12 Author Share Posted January 12 Euro is drunk. In a few more runs it'll shape up. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Weather Will said: We truly have a model war between EURO and GFS. Well it looks like a model war between euro and ... gfs,ukmet,icon,cmc,... lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I think maybe The euro needs an intervention !! shes drinkin too much lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Let it finish dude lolHow is that blended model of the models doing. It was lights out last weekend lolSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 WB 6Z GEFS 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: We truly have a model war between EURO and GFS. GFS persistence does not equal superiority. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 We really need this event. There is nothing in the pipeline after it The icon moving into the good guy camp was pretty big imoSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS low locations compared to yesterday Much better look than 24 hours ago!! 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KingJWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 GEFS 48 hours ago vs now. What a dramatic shift! 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Ji said: We really need this event. There is nothing in the pipeline after it The icon moving into the good guy camp was pretty big imo Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Do you sleep dude?? 20 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, KingJWx said: GEFS 48 hours ago vs now. What a dramatic shift! Wow its like night and day!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AmericanWxFreak Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS P15 would be a jolly good time 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, WxUSAF said: Do you sleep dude?? Hes very dedicated! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, AmericanWxFreak said: P15 would be a jolly good time Yup, for all!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Do you sleep dude??Oh crap...I knew I forgot something I'm obsessed with digital blueSent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 9 minutes ago, Ji said: We really need this event. There is nothing in the pipeline after it The icon moving into the good guy camp was pretty big imo Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk this wasnt really in the pipeline that many days...I rolled back the runs and it didnt look that promising 4 days ago...the pipeline could easily get active after this...we just can't know right now...plus there is the whole convective feedback issue which we can discuss later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, Ji said: Oh crap...I knew I forgot something I'm obsessed with digital blue Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk We need to convert this digital blue to physical white. Inside 4 days to start time as of the 12z runs with good model consensus outside of the best model in the world 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 We need to convert this digital blue to physical white. Inside 4 days to start time as of the 12z runs with good model consensus outside of the best model in the world Yep it's time but Charlie brown and Lucy are equally obsessed with ruining everythingIf it was the the other way around and it was euro vs the world it would be very somber on here Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Who just said the pipeline went dry?Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 14 minutes ago, Ji said: Yep it's time but Charlie brown and Lucy are equally obsessed with ruining everything If it was the the other way around and it was euro vs the world it would be very somber on here Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk WPC’s discussion today will be interesting to see how they interpret this euro vs the world scenario. And in my quick glance, the euro op remains an outlier in its own ensemble mean, even though eps has continued to inch weaker/OTS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: WPC’s discussion today will be interesting to see how they interpret this euro vs the world scenario. And in my quick glance, the euro op remains an outlier in its own ensemble mean, even though eps has continued to inch weaker/OTS. You mean this one? https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, yoda said: You mean this one? https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/hpcdiscussions.php?disc=pmdepd snip from it, reference our storm Recent models remain agreeable with showing shortwave energy pivoting through the southern side of the broad and deep trough serving to form a surface low near the East Coast Tuesday into Wednesday. 12/18Z and now the 00Z model guidance generally shows low pressure developing near the Southeast Coast by early Tuesday, but with some spread in the formation/track that is amplified by the fact that even relatively small differences would have considerable sensible weather differences. With the 12/18Z suite of models, the GEFS and EC mean showed similar low tracks northward across the western Atlantic and a fairly strong system reaching New England or the Canadian Maritimes by early Wednesday. 12/18Z GFS runs were most like the means, so favored that cluster for the WPC forecast. The 12Z and now the 00Z ECMWF deterministic runs are more offshore where hardly any precipitation is onshore of the East Coast. This seems unlikely based on other guidance and the EC ensemble mean and members, but unfortunately the ECMWF-initialized machine learning models did not seem to run for the 12Z cycle, so we lack that piece of information that could help with the model diagnostics. Meanwhile the 12Z CMC showed reasonable alignment in the track though a bit faster than preferred, but now the 00Z CMC has a track considerably inland that would spread rain to some Mid-Atlantic areas. The 00Z GFS also shows differences from its previous runs, with a dual structure to the low early Wednesday with some low pressure hanging near the DelMarVa, and not consolidating until later Wednesday. Overall, the forecast details remain low confidence as the storm track spread is still high. 5 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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