WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 This is a better setup. I like this run 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Could be the beginning of a two-camp fight in the GEFS for where the low is primarily based out of/timing? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 7 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I looked again, and this new gfs run does seem slower and develops the storm later Like you said until the cutter is out the way there will be more ebbs and flows. Having the cold available with the arctic boundary really helps us. I just can't see this missing us completely. Gut feelings says moderate storm. Fingers crossed. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rhino16 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Right where we want it at hour 228 on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, HighStakes said: Like you said until the cutter is out the way there will be more ebbs and flows. Having the cold available with the arctic boundary really helps us. I just want see this missing us completely. Gut feelings says moderate storm. Fingers crossed. Yeah, cold air shouldn’t be an issue this time. (i’m banking against the canadian) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Probably the biggest thing that got me excited about this winter was a Feb 2003 type storm. We get that I will call it a winter Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 0z GEFS almost no difference at 120 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 6 minutes ago, Rhino16 said: Right where we want it at hour 228 on the GFS. Long way to go, but that one has big dog potential 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Long way to go, but that one has big dog potential I think this one has big potential, but yeah, that one would have the sky is the limit potential Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: 0z GEFS almost no difference at 120 Actually looks a tad better at 132 than 18z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Actually looks a tad better at 132 than 18z. Just saw that, its hinting at faster cyclogenesis once it passes the NC/VA latitude with a bigger precip shield. I feel better about what the ensembles show than the op, even though the op was a decent run (I probably overreacted at first lol) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 13 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said: This is a better setup. I like this run 10 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yeah, cold air shouldn’t be an issue this time. (i’m banking against the canadian) 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Long way to go, but that one has big dog potential Agree. I love the setup for this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Just now, Terpeast said: Just saw that, its hinting at faster cyclogenesis once it passes the NC/VA latitude with a bigger precip shield. I feel better about what the ensembles show than the op, even though the op was a decent run (I probably overreacted at first lol) could the increased spread here be due to members starting to toss around different locations and timescales for cyclogenesis? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 6 minutes ago, Terpeast said: 0z GEFS almost no difference at 120 I like the 0z GEFS more, and I liked the 18z GEFS a lot! It has more members keying on that second wave...but actually has a cleaner phase and gets the coastal going sooner without that weird jump thing where the initial wave almost takes the boundary off and the low has to redevelop west. That was a really messy progression on the op. But the GEFS indicates a move towards the slower progression with the 3rd wave being dominant but a cleaner coastal development. If we actually can get the 3rd wave to work it has the highest upside. Way less risk of a cutter or thermal issues, more room to amplify, stronger NS wave... It moved towards a better scenario imo. I don't know what to make of the GGEM though, hopefully its just off on a tangent. Not that unusual for the ggem. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 . 10 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Ukmet?Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Ukmet?Sent from my SM-A515U using TapatalkLook up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, Heisy said: . Consensus, check back in 2/3 days cause we don’t know wtf is going on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Just saw that, its hinting at faster cyclogenesis once it passes the NC/VA latitude with a bigger precip shield. I feel better about what the ensembles show than the op, even though the op was a decent run (I probably overreacted at first lol) you Ninja'd me. But I agree the way the op went down was risky, it was stuck between keying on two waves and almost ran off with the first one. It had to redevelop and jump west to pull off what it did, that's dangerous and even if everything showed that 12 hours out I would be nervous. That is bust city right there. But the GEFS suggests maybe the trailing wave can be dominant with a less messy development. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, baltosquid said: could the increased spread here be due to members starting to toss around different locations and timescales for cyclogenesis? Looks to me as the spread is showing a potentially slower system with more stragglers behind the main group 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Look up.Ha great timing Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Ukie H5, we def have another 24-36 hours until we see some more consensus . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Ukie H5, we def have another 24-36 hours until we see some more consensus . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Excuse me, I'm gonna need ya'll to give me some privacy with the UKMET for a bit... 5 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jrlg1181 Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 15 minutes ago, Ji said: Probably the biggest thing that got me excited about this winter was a Feb 2003 type storm. We get that I will call it a winter Sent from my SM-A515U using Tapatalk 7 inches of sleet... was so diaspointed at first-but that turned to amazement at that much sleet... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 Curves right around the outer banks so sensually, doesn't it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: Excuse me, I'm gonna need ya'll to give me some privacy with the UKMET for a bit... You got about 1hour before the fun police arrive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 12, 2024 Share Posted January 12, 2024 UKMet is surprising 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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