baltosquid Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I just think it's a good sign that the kicker seemed to at least relax a bit at 18z, even if it didn't give us a huge hit. Honestly, wouldn't be the worst if some weak kicker (much weaker than 12z euro) stuck around to prevent over amping it and risking getting too much of what the GFS is selling - there's still enough time to lose this to the NW even if right now we're worried about suppression. I know that makes it more complicated but at least right now the entire subforum is within the goalposts on it, so if we can just trend inward to the meeting point of models, we're sitting quite nicely I think. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 WB OZ compared to 18Z EPS 1 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Weather Will said: WB OZ compared to 18Z EPS Notice the heaviest precip trending southeast from the 0z run to 12z. (18z hasn't updated yet) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, BTRWx's Thanks Giving said: Notice the heaviest precip trending southeast from the 0z run to 12z. (18z hasn't updated yet) Agreed EPS trended SE today. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Nina's after a Nino are actually a myth. Quote Since 1948, The MAM ONI to SON ONI has gone >+1.1 19 times (this is the 20th time). I had previously thought there was a strong tendency for ENSO-state to reverse the next year, but ENSO is probably more of a 1+ year continuum, albeit seasonal things like typical late-Winter weakening.. Of those 19 events, 8/19 (42%) saw the same ENSO state the following year [+14 months NDJ ONI], 6/19 (32%) were Neutral, and 5/19 (26%) reversed to the opposite ENSO state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Day 5 WPC. Look at when they issued it. They had to have seen the 12z euro before issuing Is there any discussion on this or just as-is? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB OZ compared to 18Z EPS Why did you skip 12z in there? Come on stop it 10 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 27 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: to be honest, a Niña after a strong Nino might actually be pretty interesting No it will suck real bad down here. Cant speak to your backyard though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, psuhoffman said: Why did you skip 12z in there? Come on stop it Even alone 0.25 on a QPF mean all snow at day is 5 is good. And it’s better being on the NW side of the envelope than on the SE side of a snow potential with raging southerly mid level flow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, SomeguyfromTakomaPark said: Even alone 0.25 on a QPF mean all snow at day is 5 is good. And it’s better being on the NW side of the envelope than on the SE side of a snow potential with raging southerly mid level flow. And if the euro is suppressed, that 0.25 is quite possibly coming into a much colder environment with ratios better than 10:1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 10 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Why did you skip 12z in there? Come on stop it I thought 12Z was about the same as 18z so to be more explicit EPS mean is SE of where it was at OZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 So the SE trend paused at 18z. Good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 35 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: to be honest, a Niña after a strong Nino might actually be pretty interesting. but no reason in entertaining that until we pass the spring predictability barrier anyway All 5 examples sucked in DC. Last one was 3”. The only thing interesting would be the weenie meltdowns in here. We haven’t had a snowy La Niña in 24 years! And the only 2 in the last 50 years were +pdo -QBO winters! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 gfs trended opposite direction from euro today, but with 18z euro/eps that may have stopped. We’ll see what they decide to do next 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just because I hate myself that much about a month ago I looked at where we were likely heading with QBO, enso, PDO, AMO and solar. And I used the same matrix I always use to identify the 5 best analogs. There is a reason I didn’t share. I figured I’d keep my nightmares to myself. But since you asked. here ya go Analog h5 analog temps DC Avg snow 3” sweet dreams My gut feeling is differentI’m looking at winters after moderate ninos95-96 04-05 2010-1187-88 66-67 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 4 minutes ago, Ji said: My gut feeling is different I’m looking at winters after moderate ninos 95-96 04-05 2010-11 87-88 66-67 We seem to be hitting -NAO's more often, but they are being overwhelmed. I think this +Nao/+pna-epo .. or -Nao/-pna+epo correlation is going to hold. If you look at the clouds... about 2-3 years ago we starting getting more cloud thickness. I think that is a long term graduation program. We still have a ways to go to detox all this snow-melt seasons, but I think we are trending toward something more favorable a few years down the road. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Encouraging tweethttps://x.com/weatherwilly/status/1745617893574791311?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 8 minutes ago, Ji said: Encouraging tweethttps://x.com/weatherwilly/status/1745617893574791311?s=46&t=C005pd5HNg3Y-KhVU7n3VA Who is that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmvpete Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 51 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Day 5 WPC. Look at when they issued it. They had to have seen the 12z euro before issuing As a heads up, these maps are resent to include our hemispheric fronts created from our Alaska desk. The fronts over the CONUS by our day shift medium range forecaster (Rausch, if you look at the Fronts tab on the homepage) is identical compared to this one. The new fronts and pressure from night shift likely won't make the web for a couple more hours, and the overnight forecaster would use the 12/18Z guidance as their foundation for this next set of fronts/pressures forecasts. Usually these fronts and pressures have to be sent out before the new suite of 00Z guidance comes in. 5 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 21 minutes ago, Ji said: My gut feeling is different I’m looking at winters after moderate ninos95-96 04-05 2010-1187-88 66-67 I hope you’re right and I’m wrong. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, wxmvpete said: As a heads up, these maps are resent to include our hemispheric fronts created from our Alaska desk. The fronts over the CONUS by our day shift medium range forecaster (Rausch, if you look at the Fronts tab on the homepage) is identical compared to this one. The new fronts and pressure from night shift likely won't make the web for a couple more hours, and the overnight forecaster would use the 12/128Z guidance as their foundation for these forecasts. Usually these fronts and pressures have to be sent out before the new suite of 00Z guidance, in this case, guidance comes in. Got it, thanks for the clarification. Tangentially related, I read a couple of AFDs noting the suppressed 12z/18z euro track but called it an outlier and didn’t want to jump on it yet, just monitoring that trend for now 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 22 minutes ago, Ji said: My gut feeling is different I’m looking at winters after moderate ninos95-96 04-05 2010-1187-88 66-67 This isn’t a moderate nino though, it’s super. Aren’t Nina’s more common after strong or super ninos? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 https://x.com/webberweather/status/1745572422076465273?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 00z gfs anyone? Since we’ve got one a weird tangent about next winter already and ji is posting 500mb maps for 11 months out. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 also, way out there, but this is a good overrunning setup on the GEFS. departing Arctic air, -EPO, TPV nearby, and a potent southern stream vort i can see an overrunning event as the pattern totally decays. although there is a 500mb zonal ridge, surface cold air can easily remain 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 00z NAM at 84hr vs 90hr 18z GFS... looks better on the NAMhttps://ibb.co/bmg6rjL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 00z NAM at 84hr vs 90hr 18z GFS... looks better on the NAMhttps://ibb.co/bmg6rjL Yea I noticed at 57 on Nam compared to gfs the whole setup at 500 was better so that’s a good start to the night 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 I hope you’re right and I’m wrong. You are already right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, jayyy said: 00z gfs anyone? Since we’ve got one a weird tangent about next winter already and ji is posting 500mb maps for 11 months out. . It doesn’t come out for another hour by the time our storm is in range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 11 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: https://x.com/webberweather/status/1745572422076465273?s=46&t=JDI46BeqOMUGnLaA2k6MTw Translation besides it's hot? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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