87storms Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 2 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: Oh man i remember those back to back storms in 87. Had 6 foot drifts going up my moms back deck lol In hindsight, that was a helluva snow year lol...though Feb 87 is what my UN is named after. I remember that storm like it was yesterday. Just an outstanding, fluke snow blitz. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 8 minutes ago, Heisy said: Look how the wave near the dakotas backed up. That would allow for more phasing once it tries to turn the corner. On top of that the tpv press isn’t as strong . Confluence slightly better once again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, Buddy1987 said: Confluence slightly better once again. I've already accepted the fact that it's gonna snow next week. 1 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, 87storms said: In hindsight, that was a helluva snow year lol...though Feb 87 is what my UN is named after. I remember that storm like it was yesterday. Just an outstanding, fluke snow blitz. Yes it was!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 The initial part of the storm will be hitting in sub 100 hours come tomorrow mornings runs. Saturday 00z will be the real test. Once that cutter comes and goes, how do models look? So close, yet so far. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JTA66 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 17 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Amazing this look has been showing since I noted the gfs had hints of it on Jan 5! And we tend to bash these models more often than not. I remember thunder snow with the first storm in 1987. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 9 minutes ago, 87storms said: In hindsight, that was a helluva snow year lol...though Feb 87 is what my UN is named after. I remember that storm like it was yesterday. Just an outstanding, fluke snow blitz. Some would complain. I remember after that Feb storm I traveled from near Philly to Harpers Ferry for my cousin’s baptism. We left the day after the storm early morning. By the time we got to WV there was nothing but patches in shade left. I remember I said to my uncle “we had a foot of snow I’m surprised you didn’t get as much” and he said “we had 18” but it all melted today it was so warm”. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 8 minutes ago, 87storms said: I've already accepted the fact that it's gonna snow next week. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Before anyone gets too upset you don’t have to worry about that happening again. If that happens again we won’t melt 18” in a few hours…because we wouldn’t get it in the first place. That was one of the storms @Terpeast analysis showed would be a perfect track rainstorm now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 White Christmas cancel 1 1 12 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Some would complain. I remember after that Feb storm I traveled from near Philly to Harpers Ferry for my cousin’s baptism. We left the day after the storm early morning. By the time we got to WV there was nothing but patches in shade left. I remember I said to my uncle “we had a foot of snow I’m surprised you didn’t get as much” and he said “we had 18” but it all melted today it was so warm”. I just remember being in awe at the size of the flakes through my window at night. I probably snuck downstairs to turn on our patio light about 10x lol. It was basically a long duration snow squall. I also think we were out of school for at least part of that week due to power outages. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, Ji said: White Christmas cancel Maybe a trip to Spokane where my brother lives. They’ve been KILLING it with nina winters 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 18z euro There are too many moving parts for me to project much. But the SW that becomes the kicker on the 12z is weaker. The wave we’re watching is hanging back a bit more and the tpv is slightly less suppressive. So all good trends. But how much difference it would have made I don’t know. Remember the 12z op was pretty awful. It had almost no wave at all so we needed more than subtle improvements. It ended too soon to say. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 5 minutes ago, Ji said: White Christmas cancel Looks like a pretty good forecast. I'd bet on it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 6 minutes ago, Ji said: White Christmas cancel I already cancelled next winter. -PDO +QBO past solar max Nina. You don’t want the analogs to that. Just focus on the next 2 months! 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I already cancelled next winter. -PDO +QBO past solar max Nina. You don’t want the analogs to that. Just focus on the next 2 months! Yeah, so have I. I don’t know if I’ll even bother doing a full outlook for it unless either enso or pdo suddenly flip. Maybe a 4 bullet point outlook with a one-liner statement instead of a 30 page report. I’ll probably invest that time into planning a winter trip out west. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 34 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Amazing this look has been showing since I noted the gfs had hints of it on Jan 5! And we tend to bash these models more often than not. Those twin systems in Jan '87 were so awesome. I was 16 at the time, living in Springfield. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Back to jan 16-17, I’ll see what tonight’s NWS AFDs have to say. Will be interesting to see how much stock they put into the 12z euro 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Looks wintery 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, frd said: Looks wintery That's around the time when the MJO would cycle back through. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 19 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 Just now, Scraff said: ETA - My fault wrong thread. Thought this was the Panic Room. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Back to jan 16-17, I’ll see what tonight’s NWS AFDs have to say. Will be interesting to see how much stock they put into the 12z euro We seem to be on a precip heater...that's the main reason I'm bullish. I noticed last night there was a flood warning along the Monacacy, which isn't surprising because creeks around Gambrill have been flowing nicely since the last gully washer. I'm actually right next to an extension of Carroll Creek and even that's flowing again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 @psuhoffmanThe 1/22/87 was one of my favorites. I think you're few years younger than me so I'm not sure how much you remember about the storm and the forecast leading up to it. My best recollection was that it was poorly forecasted. I believe there was a lot of uncertainty right up to game time. Most calls for the Baltimore area was for 2-4 with some 3-6 with a change to rain. Pretty sure schools started out with a 2 hour delay then changed to closed. By mid-morning light snow transitioned into heavy snow. By noon temperatures began falling making it evident there would be no changeover. Snow remained heavy hour after hour. Rates were at least 2 inches an hour at times. There was thunder snow during the afternoon. NWS played catch up all day. 3-6 became 4-8 then 6-12 and finally 12-18. Snow tapered off by evening with totals where I lived 1 mile north of the beltway in Pikesville/Owings Mills in the 16-18 range. BWI was officially 12. Phenomenal storm which for me had scaled down similarities to the 83 storm. 83 was colder and of course had much higher totals but 87 was similar in duration and sustained snowfall intensity rates. Also heck of an arctic shot behind the storm which led to perhaps one of the driest snows I've ever experienced just 3 days later on Superbowl Sunday. That follow-up storm gave me about 6 of cold smoke powder. Our current area was probably fringed a bit lol. with 4 or so. Just to the south and southeast got much heavier amounts. Great little stretch of intense winter that would essentially be it for the winter other than the Feb. 87 wet snow paste job. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 EPS is more consolidated. i would expect the ECMWF to come back NW tonight 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 26 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Some would complain. I remember after that Feb storm I traveled from near Philly to Harpers Ferry for my cousin’s baptism. We left the day after the storm early morning. By the time we got to WV there was nothing but patches in shade left. I remember I said to my uncle “we had a foot of snow I’m surprised you didn’t get as much” and he said “we had 18” but it all melted today it was so warm”. That is exactly as it happened. 14" in Front Royal overnight. All gone by evening that day. Schools open the following day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx's Thanks Giving Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 1 minute ago, brooklynwx99 said: EPS is more consolidated. i would expect the ECMWF to come back NW tonight Does it matter that the contours shifted south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaydreb Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 18z 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 12 Share Posted January 12 28 minutes ago, Ji said: White Christmas cancel Ji take some captain Kirk vibes bro. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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