psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 FWIW we got back the gefs extended and now all 3 extended systems show us going into a perfect pattern by Jan 30 and rolling through Feb with it. Op gfs shows how we cold even snow during the “relax” because there is a lot of cold left around. 16 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Let’s go GFS, got a good feeling 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: FWIW we got back the gefs extended and now all 3 extended systems show us going into a perfect pattern by Jan 30 and rolling through Feb with it. Op gfs shows how we cold even snow during the “relax” because there is a lot of cold left around. Very encouraging. It keeps sounding like we are going to set up perfectly for a backloaded prime climo month of Feb Winter. Maybe we get 2 big Feb storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wxdavis5784 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, Eskimo Joe said: I just want the grass covered. We want so much that you’re stuck in a room with no windows working through our BECS. 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 @stormtrackerwhere you at Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 23 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: It’s a good sign that no one has even mentioned the 6z gfs had a PD2 type storm out in unicorn land. just noticed that...exact same High Configuration and track basically. JB called that one 2 weeks out! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, Solution Man said: @stormtrackerwhere you at I'm present 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: I'm present your doing great man....we havent had a snowstorm in 2 years! 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Using the icon as an example of what we want to see. That right shortwave we want to press on farther E and have our main low develop from the trailer. If it develops a low on the lead wave like the icon does that won’t work for us for the most part . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Ji said: your doing great man....we havent had a snowstorm in 2 years! I do what I can. It's better than whining like a petulant toddler tho. 7 1 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Heisy said: Using the icon as an example of what we want to see. That right shortwave we want to press on farther E and have our main low develop from the trailer. If it develops a low on the lead wave like the icon does that won’t work for us for the most part . I agree with this. Initially there was no trailing wave of note, and that was why a few days ago I was pretty blah about this threat...I just didn't see much potential from that lead wave. It's positioned right under the TPV, the only way to get it to be much would be to phase and amplify but that would cut it too far NW of us given the location of the boundary and the lack of any confluence in front. Now if this keys on that second wave...its a whole different situation. The front clears the area, we have some confluence created by the lead wave, and that second one has more room to amplify. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I think the Saturday model runs will give us a better idea for the Mon-Wed timeframe. Until then, it’s all guesswork 11 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: I think the Saturday model runs will give us a better idea for the Mon-Wed timeframe. Until then, it’s all guesswork i think models now have a good idea of what the 2nd cutter will do...we shouldnt have to wait till saturday 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Terpeast said: I think the Saturday model runs will give us a better idea for the Mon-Wed timeframe. Until then, it’s all guesswork We need the guidance to resolve the cutter. Not sure exactly when they will do that, but until the details with how that affects the ultimate orientation of the TPV which will affect all these moving parts involved in this "threat" we wont have any clarity. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: We need the guidance to resolve the cutter. Not sure exactly when they will do that, but until the details with how that affects the ultimate orientation of the TPV which will affect all these moving parts involved in this "threat" we wont have any clarity. Yep, its when they resolve when and how the cutter retrogrades into the tpv that we will know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Better TPV press so far vs 6z . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 @stormtracker its really hard imo to get an early read here because the SW that shows up first around 72 hours isn't the one we want to be the storm...its the next one which until later is still a part of the TPV rotating mess up top that splits off around hour 100 and dives in. Until we get a look at how its oriented its hard to tell much. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I think GFS is gonna be a big improvement vs 6z based on what I’m seeing early. Watch GFS become our snowiest model by the end of the day 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Heisy said: Better TPV press so far vs 6z . but I don't even know if that is necessarily a good thing, ultimately I think the two things that matter most are that the initial wave doesn't amplify at all to leave space for the next, and that the next one is more amplified. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 but I don't even know if that is necessarily a good thing, ultimately I think the two things that matter most are that the initial wave doesn't amplify at all to leave space for the next, and that the next one is more amplified. Agreed, just pointing it out, models are def not gonna have any kind of agreement today with those trailer waves and how/if they work out. So I wouldn’t panic one way or another regardless of what 12z does . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 confluence is much stronger this run. big shift towards the ECMWF 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: but I don't even know if that is necessarily a good thing, ultimately I think the two things that matter most are that the initial wave doesn't amplify at all to leave space for the next, and that the next one is more amplified. The lead wave looks a little less amped for what its worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Ok, light snow at 105 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Agreed, just pointing it out, models are def not gonna have any kind of agreement today with those trailer waves and how/if they work out. So I wouldn’t panic one way or another regardless of what 12z does .But you can bet your butt I’ll overreact positively if they show big hits lol. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 GFS notably colder at the surface for us at hour 90. Just have to hope it's not an indicator of suppressive forces Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 So far a bit more S and E than 6z. Still some light snow at 117 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, stormtracker said: So far a bit more S and E than 6z Following wave looks slightly maybe slightly less amped so far as well as the first one, either way it looks pretty similar wave strength wise to 6z through. Agree its all further south east as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 FOLKS... 7 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 this run is going to be awesome. better trough orientation over the Rockies along with more confluence what a gorgeous look we have now 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Ok, light snow at 105So we’re def not seeing separation like the 6z control, but this might still work out as a modest event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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