Weather Will Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Until the Friday low clears out the track will bounce around but definitely a SE trend on EURO the last 24 hours and weaker. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 3 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: Kuchera vs 10:1 We could def get 12:1 overall...with some 15:1....if the storm even happens or exists This reminds me of one of the Feb 96 storms....I think the 2nd.....2/16/96 Also reminds me of a scaled down version of 1/25-26/87. That was a cold storm as well. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Kuchera vs 10:1 We could def get 12:1 overall...with some 15:1....if the storm even happens or exists This reminds me of one of the Feb 96 storms....I think the 2nd.....2/16/96This was mentioned as a analog the other day..y area got 18" so no complaints here.Really good trends on modeling today, let's hope they hold.Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 The 20th storm is a mess at this point for our latitude, but can definitely see a monster trough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 7 minutes ago, Deck Pic said: I believe that was much colder - after the reinforcing shot following storm 1 - but maybe similar? Here's 96 - super similar....our trough is a little more positively tilted How about the early Feb. 96 storm. Maybe some similarities with that one also. Regardless I'm just happy to see legit cold across the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlexD1990 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 not surprised, it sticks out. That one hugged the coast more. It was better organized. I don't think this has as much potential. But I seriously would die for 3-5" of cold smoke on a Saturday afternoon that sticks to the street....LFGAmen! I would like to see the whole sub get in on something good. It's been feast or famine for too long. @CAPE and I have made out good in recent winters that skunked you guys along i95, I'd rather see something where we all get cold smoke.Sent from my SM-F711U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IUsedToHateCold Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: WB OZ EURO Lock it up. Beggars can’t be choosers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Lock it up. Beggars can’t be choosers Seriously. If models were to *hypothetically* look like this the night before the storm hit (I know, it very likely won’t… but if it did) I’d prob stay at my brothers place closer to 95 to enjoy it. Would I take 5-7” of cold smoke? Hell yes. In a heartbeat. I don’t want hear squat about needing a HECS, Ji. An areawide high advisory to low end warning snowfall with temps well below freezing and high ratios (probably near 15:1 with these temps) would do wonders for this subforum’s morale. Only needing 0.5” of QPF to get half a foot would be sweet. Plus, who wouldn’t like some snowcover heading into the 19th and beyond? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Tuesday is trending the wrong way on WB EPS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Franklin0529 Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 3 minutes ago, Weather Will said: Tuesday is trending the wrong way on WB EPS Right where you want it. These always tick north. Still 5 days away 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 At least Tuesday will not cut....and even if NW zones are fringed ratios will be high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Well this is just a little different 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 WW might stop worrying about those bad SE trends after this run. 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 WB 6Z GFS..... 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Just now, CAPE said: WW might stop worrying about those bad SE trends after this run. By 18Z it will be snowing in Montreal..... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 GFS has it snowing lightly by early Monday afternoon and it becomes steady Tuesday am and does not end until early Wed. am... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 8 minutes ago, Weather Will said: By 18Z it will be snowing in Montreal..... Needless to say I'm not a fan of that run verbatim but that is still a possibility if a sharp NS shortwave digs and phases too early. The 50-50 region is precarious, so too amped is going to be problematic. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 And cold even by 1960 standards on Wed. WB 6Z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 6 minutes ago, CAPE said: Needless to say I'm not a fan of that run verbatim but that is still a possibility if a sharp NS shortwave digs and phases too early. The 50-50 region is precarious, so too amped is going to be problematic. Other have stated and I agree that tomorrow's shortwave needs to clear the field before we have clarity on Tuesday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 WB 6Z GEFS compared to yesterday for Tuesday 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 4pm Tuesday...WB 6Z GEFS 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 4 minutes ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS compared to yesterday for Tuesday Looks like op out to lunch. Ens mean following the Euro trend. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Better depiction of a low just off the NC coast than previous runs. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Looks like op out to lunch. Ens mean following the Euro trend. What trend are you speaking of? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Just now, CAPE said: What trend are you speaking of? The FFS please God give us snow trend 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Just now, CAPE said: What trend are you speaking of? I have genuinely no idea either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 WB 6Z snow mean is meh, but less meh than 6Z yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said: QPF shrinking on the NW side and the mean wave displaced far off the coast. Clearly doesn't look like the gfs op. The 'trend' on the GEFS is good though. 2 runs ago there was barely an indication of a surface low. Last run it was well off the coast. Did you see the MSLP anomaly panel I just posted for 6z? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 8 minutes ago, CAPE said: The 'trend' on the GEFS is good though. 2 runs ago there was barely an indication of a surface low. Last run it was well off the coast. Did you see the MSLP anomaly panel I just posted for 6z? Nvm...user error. I saw 1/10 as 1/11 and vice versa. Wtf is wrong with me 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Latest NBM 15 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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