Kevin Reilly Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: the slowest 1-2” ever, but we technically get there It will correct in time it's really 1-2'. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: 3 run trend That H5 is a little too north for my liking if it is going negative Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I love what CMC looks like its trying to doMight be a good attempt but it doesn’t get there At least to me it doesn’t look like it but I probably called it too early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, Ji said: I love what CMC looks like its trying to do just misses us with the main slug to the SE and it's warm Edit: Manages to guess with with some snow at 144 in the backlash Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Still a ton of run to run changes, huge shifts up top at 500mb, so that tells me that the models are still resolving the details beyond the next cutter. For now these shifts are in our favor 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said: Might be a good attempt but it doesn’t get there At least to me it doesn’t look like it but I probably called it too early i thought early on it was going to have a good run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 as usual 1 step forward 7 steps back 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Trying to set up something at 198 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Junkie Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Call it PTSD but why am I worried that by the time the model gets us that favorable look, we’ll be talking sun angle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 3 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Trying to set up something at 198 And its a nothing burger OTS, but that’s fine for now. Too far out for an op run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 4 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Trying to set up something at 198 yep...a huge crushing of flurries 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Terpeast said: And its a nothing burger OTS, but that’s fine for now. Too far out for an op run Shows some light snow. I’m in lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Terpeast said: And its a nothing burger OTS, but that’s fine for now. Too far out for an op run its not fine...i need to see something big and blue like i saw 9 days out in Jan 2016 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Early in the GEFS run you can see some more trailing s/w action, hopefully portends another step towards the Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Ji said: its not fine...i need to see something big and blue like i saw 9 days out in Jan 2016 Lol not gonna happen that far out, and even if it did it won’t hold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 here is the @brooklynwx99storm! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Gefs looks like 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 30 minutes ago, stormtracker said: This was close to something big. @Heisy? But as of now, weak area of broad low pressure moving NNE off the coast..we have some light snows, but nothing impressive light snows over the area from 132 to 150 Long duration event of 18+ hours is what we do well, If temps cold snd/or dark then 0.25 up to .0.5”ph would impress. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Terpeast said: Gefs looks like 12z hopefully the eps12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 16 minutes ago, Ji said: its not fine...i need to see something big and blue like i saw 9 days out in Jan 2016 Look down. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Low came out much clearer in mslp anomaly on this GEFS run. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 basically we are in the same boat as we were last night Euro has something Gfs and Canadien dont.... who is gonna cave Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Low came out much clearer in mslp anomaly on this GEFS run. yep. Still laughable how far it is from EPS. We will see what happens tonight! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Just now, Ji said: basically we are in the same boat as we were last night Euro has something Gfs and Canadien dont.... who is gonna cave Gfs and Canadian have something just just not as exciting as the euro was. It’s getting closer though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 A day's worth of GEFS trends. 00z still an improvement and appears to have done away with lots of ultra suppressed members given the clearer precip and MSLP presentation, but the bulk of the tracks still have some work to do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Gefs 4 run trend with precip 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 @baltosquidbeat me to it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
VA Mad Man Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: What about the MRF, AVN and NOGAPS? We are all too fancy now for those models Don’t forget about the NGM and LFM! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 The way we sort of failed tonight on the models runs is certainly feasible. I wouldn’t discount these solutions at all. We still need the right spacing and timing of all the shortwaves involved. Cmc/ GEFS shows that method of failure where you have the stalled out front near TN valley and then once the main shortwave finally redevelops it’s too late except for NYC/NE whatever.So much to figure out I wouldn’t panic about this one until we get around 96 hours. 6z gfs can easily suddenly be a huge hit. I’ve seen it a million times in these situationsYou see how the snow mean kind of skips us? That’s from the redevelopment factor and it’s def possible. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 I do fear the dwindling hours. Not that it's an insurmountable adjustment (in fact it's extremely within reason to adjust to a win), but it does feel like one or two bad days of runs would leave us statistically unlikely to see the kind of changes necessary to get a nice event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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