Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

[Kevin Reilly]

Just now, NorthArlington101 said:

the slowest 1-2” ever, but we technically get there

It will correct in time it's really 1-2'.

[Interstate]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

3 run trend

That H5 is a little too north for my liking if it is going negative 

[NorthArlington101]

I love what CMC looks like its trying to do

Might be a good attempt but it doesn’t get there

At least to me it doesn’t look like it but I probably called it too early

[stormtracker]

5 minutes ago, Ji said:

I love what CMC looks like its trying to do

just misses us with the main slug to the SE and it's warm

 

Edit: Manages to guess with with some snow at 144 in the backlash

[Terpeast]

Still a ton of run to run changes, huge shifts up top at 500mb, so that tells me that the models are still resolving the details beyond the next cutter. For now these shifts are in our favor

[Ji]

5 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

Might be a good attempt but it doesn’t get there

At least to me it doesn’t look like it but I probably called it too early

i thought early on it was going to have a good run

[Ji]

as usual 1 step forward 7 steps back

[Terpeast]

Trying to set up something at 198

[Weather Junkie]

Call it PTSD but why am I worried that by the time the model gets us that favorable look, we’ll be talking sun angle.

[Terpeast]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Trying to set up something at 198

And its a nothing burger OTS, but that’s fine for now. Too far out for an op run

[Ji]

4 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Trying to set up something at 198

yep...a huge crushing of flurries

[TSSN+]

Just now, Terpeast said:

And its a nothing burger OTS, but that’s fine for now. Too far out for an op run

Shows some light snow. I’m in lol 

[Ji]

Just now, Terpeast said:

And its a nothing burger OTS, but that’s fine for now. Too far out for an op run

its not fine...i need to see something big and blue like i saw 9 days out in Jan 2016

[baltosquid]

Early in the GEFS run you can see some more trailing s/w action, hopefully portends another step towards the Euro.

[Terpeast]

1 minute ago, Ji said:

its not fine...i need to see something big and blue like i saw 9 days out in Jan 2016

Lol not gonna happen that far out, and even if it did it won’t hold 

[Ji]

here is the @brooklynwx99storm!

[Terpeast]

Gefs looks like 12z

[WEATHER53]

30 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

This was close to something big. @Heisy?   But as of now, weak area of broad low pressure moving NNE off the coast..we have some light snows, but nothing impressive light snows over the area from 132 to 150

Long duration event of 18+ hours is what we do well, If temps cold snd/or dark then 0.25 up to .0.5”ph would impress. 

[Ji]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

Gefs looks like 12z

hopefully the eps12z

[ravensrule]

16 minutes ago, Ji said:

its not fine...i need to see something big and blue like i saw 9 days out in Jan 2016

Look down. 

[baltosquid]

Low came out much clearer in mslp anomaly on this GEFS run.

[Ji]

basically we are in the same boat as we were last night

Euro has something

Gfs and Canadien dont....

who is gonna cave

[Ji]

2 minutes ago, baltosquid said:

Low came out much clearer in mslp anomaly on this GEFS run.

yep. Still laughable how far it is from EPS. We will see what happens tonight!

[TSSN+]

Just now, Ji said:

basically we are in the same boat as we were last night

Euro has something

Gfs and Canadien dont....

who is gonna cave

Gfs and Canadian have something just just not as exciting as the euro was. It’s getting closer though. 

[baltosquid]

A day's worth of GEFS trends. 00z still an improvement and appears to have done away with lots of ultra suppressed members given the clearer precip and MSLP presentation, but the bulk of the tracks still have some work to do.

[Terpeast]

Gefs 4 run trend with precip

[Terpeast]

@baltosquidbeat me to it

[VA Mad Man]

1 hour ago, BristowWx said:

What about the MRF, AVN and NOGAPS?  We are all too fancy now for those models 

Don’t forget about the NGM and LFM!

[Heisy]

The way we sort of failed tonight on the models runs is certainly feasible. I wouldn’t discount these solutions at all. We still need the right spacing and timing of all the shortwaves involved. Cmc/ GEFS shows that method of failure where you have the stalled out front near TN valley and then once the main shortwave finally redevelops it’s too late except for NYC/NE whatever.

So much to figure out I wouldn’t panic about this one until we get around 96 hours.

6z gfs can easily suddenly be a huge hit. I’ve seen it a million times in these situations

You see how the snow mean kind of skips us? That’s from the redevelopment factor and it’s def possible.





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[baltosquid]

I do fear the dwindling hours. Not that it's an insurmountable adjustment (in fact it's extremely within reason to adjust to a win), but it does feel like one or two bad days of runs would leave us statistically unlikely to see the kind of changes necessary to get a nice event.