BristowWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, Duca892 said: Well that was a wet fart of a GFS run This might have legs. I wouldnt just smell it and walk away yet. Let it linger a bit 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the synoptics continue to look amazing for the 20th Yeah, if that block can hold over Alaska, and close off a strong low underneath of it, downstream wave should be able to pick up energy from the gulf.. we're almost there. Still a little ways to go 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 the STJ is open for the 20th, as well 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 The biggest difference to me for next week is the sharpness and dig of the NS vorticity on the Euro compared to the GFS. The degree of interaction with energy in the flow underneath it induces a stronger surface low sooner/further south. 18z GFS took a step in the right direction compared to the 12z run, with a more notable vort max that is less broad and strung out. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 just in case this wasn't posted in here 10 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Steady light to moderate 24 hour events seem to be the better ones for us last 15 years than intense quicker hitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, brooklynwx99 said: just in case this wasn't posted in here Following February's from those analogs look like seasonal models currently have https://ibb.co/K6mtPwr Globe is a little too cold biased for my liking, and the GOA low has been missing so far in this El Nino. Maybe D+8 model will shift a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 53 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: the 12z ECMWF has a coastal storm Pretty sure everyone has him on ignore. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 24 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: Steady light to moderate 24-hour events seems to be the better ones for us last 15 years than intense quicker hitter. I bet everything speeds up and it is not a 24-hour event! LOL! These things always end up being quick even when modeled for a long time. Maybe you were being sarcastic.. I cannot think of on event that took so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 11 minutes ago, midatlanticweather said: I bet everything speeds up and it is not a 24-hour event! LOL! These things always end up being quick even when modeled for a long time. Maybe you were being sarcastic.. I cannot think of on event that took so long. We had a 36 hour event the beginning of Feb 2022. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, EastCoast NPZ said: We had a 36 hour event the beginning of Feb 2022. Would rather 6 inches over 24 hours than 24 inches over 6 hours. Just like to watch it snow. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Would rather 6 inches over 24 hours than 24 inches over 6 hours. Just like to watch it snow. You’d pass on 4 inches of snow an hour rates for hours? 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Id be more disappointed in the 18z gfs if it was alot closer than 6 days out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Would rather 6 inches over 24 hours than 24 inches over 6 hours. Just like to watch it snow. It'd have to be very cold for that to work. Almost impossible in daytime outside the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Baby steps. Still reeling in the precip field from the sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 13 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: You’d pass on 4 inches of snow an hour rates for hours? I’m drunk just make it snow! I am not thinking clearly. Either is fine. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 yup pretty much lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Also for the 20th, precip on GEFS indicates the GoM is going to spin something up. Obviously as depicted it's OTS but given the beautiful bigger picture, hard to complain at this range... good to know there's potentially energy around, then got to get it in our neighborhood. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 22 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Would rather 6 inches over 24 hours than 24 inches over 6 hours. Just like to watch it snow. That's what she sa... oh nevermind. 1 11 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 18z GEFS really doesn't have much with the 16-17 storm. 3/27 members it looks like. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 2 minutes ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: 18z GEFS really doesn't have much with the 16-17 storm. 3/27 members it looks like. good old fashioned model war over this one, hopefully GFS op bleeding to Euro progression signals a coming surrender though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 That's what she sa... oh nevermind. No not you too 1 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 38 minutes ago, baltosquid said: Also for the 20th, precip on GEFS indicates the GoM is going to spin something up. Obviously as depicted it's OTS but given the beautiful bigger picture, hard to complain at this range... good to know there's potentially energy around, then got to get it in our neighborhood. I think its in a decent spot for 230 hours out Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 41 minutes ago, winter_warlock said: yup pretty much lol LMAO ! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Hey do any of you remember the CRAS model?? I wonder what happen to that dumpster fire of a model lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 Snow weenies are gonna track. Because that's what we do. And because you all know, all too well, that the storm is there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 1 minute ago, Jebman said: Snow weenies are gonna track. Because that's what we do. And because you all know, all too well, that the storm is there. Yup!!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 11 Author Share Posted January 11 Concerning 6 inches of snow in 24 hours vs 24 inches of snow in 6 hours, I'd take BOTH. That's a 30 inch snowstorm in 30 hours and I'd be digging massive amounts of snow. Not to mention an EPIC jebwalk. And the storm has got to be tracked on all the models. We're not going to miss even ONE model run! Well, maybe YOU will, but I WON'T! This is why I never got married. I am ALREADY married. To all the models, the ensembles and the ski resorts like Palisades Tahoe and Mammoth and Alta, Utah and many, many others. I am married to snow and severe weather and floods. And Hurricanes and 75 foot storm surges associated with our exciting new ultra heated base state. 2 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 Eps rolling now we’ll have a good idea at its end range how the storm would have ended up . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 11 Share Posted January 11 My only take away from the GFS is we are going to have multiple chances through the end of the month at least. It was a pretty nice run in reality. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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