HighStakes Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Nice to finally see that cold will not be the problem if the event materializes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 GFS and ECMWF are actually really similar at this point, for this range. the GFS is just more progressive and disjointed... shocker 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 10:12 PM, stormtracker said: 1-3" area wide. 1 toward the cities..3 for Cape. So timing has moved toward the Euro. We're not done yet yall! See ya at 0z Expand On 1/10/2024 at 10:12 PM, psuhoffman said: it just misses something big, the STJ wave slides off and misses the phase with the NS energy diving in behind...but this was closer to something big than the GFS has ever been with this threat. Expand Yup...despite it sliding away, I actually like the larger scale changes in some weird fashion and that it's trending toward the Euro-type solution. And even still, we manage to squeeze some light snow out of it. I am feeling more confident in the probability for at least more than a dusting from this, and it will also be quite cold. So definitely a wintry feel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 10:15 PM, Ji said: this looks like a very typical GFS type run that JB used to talk about with too much emphasis on the lead wave but it will likely adjust pretty soon. Even with a crap solution...it still gave us 1-3 Expand I actually agree with this. This isnt good. Chuck is honking about -NAO and a favorable PNA and I'm agreeing with JB. End times man, end times. 2 17 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 10:15 PM, Ji said: this looks like a very typical GFS type run that JB used to talk about with too much emphasis on the lead wave but it will likely adjust pretty soon. Even with a crap solution...it still gave us 1-3 Expand It looks like it's already adjusting, or trying to so to speak. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Intrigued to see how GEFS will pick up on the euro idea. If the OP is starting to cave, should hopefully see some nice members at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 the synoptics continue to look amazing for the 20th 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duca892 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Well that was a wet fart of a GFS run 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 10:16 PM, psuhoffman said: I actually agree with this. This isnt good. Chuck is honking about -NAO and a favorable PNA and I'm agreeing with JB. End times man, end times. Expand Dogs and cats, living together, mass hysteria! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 I feel ok with this one. I was looking down in Texas at the trough. It was slower and sharper. Encouraging. 528 line near by…also fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Though the GFS has trended toward the ECM off the SC coast, the pattern is too progressive and its still OTS like the 12z ECM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 10:26 PM, stormy said: Though the GFS has trended toward the ECM off the SC coast, the pattern is too progressive and its still OTS like the 12z ECM. Expand the 12z ECMWF has a coastal storm 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 10:25 PM, Duca892 said: Well that was a wet fart of a GFS run Expand This might have legs. I wouldnt just smell it and walk away yet. Let it linger a bit 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 10:23 PM, brooklynwx99 said: the synoptics continue to look amazing for the 20th Expand Yeah, if that block can hold over Alaska, and close off a strong low underneath of it, downstream wave should be able to pick up energy from the gulf.. we're almost there. Still a little ways to go 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 the STJ is open for the 20th, as well 13 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 The biggest difference to me for next week is the sharpness and dig of the NS vorticity on the Euro compared to the GFS. The degree of interaction with energy in the flow underneath it induces a stronger surface low sooner/further south. 18z GFS took a step in the right direction compared to the 12z run, with a more notable vort max that is less broad and strung out. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 just in case this wasn't posted in here 10 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Steady light to moderate 24 hour events seem to be the better ones for us last 15 years than intense quicker hitter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 10:52 PM, brooklynwx99 said: just in case this wasn't posted in here Expand Following February's from those analogs look like seasonal models currently have https://ibb.co/K6mtPwr Globe is a little too cold biased for my liking, and the GOA low has been missing so far in this El Nino. Maybe D+8 model will shift a little bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 10:27 PM, brooklynwx99 said: the 12z ECMWF has a coastal storm Expand Pretty sure everyone has him on ignore. 5 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 10:56 PM, WEATHER53 said: Steady light to moderate 24-hour events seems to be the better ones for us last 15 years than intense quicker hitter. Expand I bet everything speeds up and it is not a 24-hour event! LOL! These things always end up being quick even when modeled for a long time. Maybe you were being sarcastic.. I cannot think of on event that took so long. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 11:22 PM, midatlanticweather said: I bet everything speeds up and it is not a 24-hour event! LOL! These things always end up being quick even when modeled for a long time. Maybe you were being sarcastic.. I cannot think of on event that took so long. Expand We had a 36 hour event the beginning of Feb 2022. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 11:35 PM, EastCoast NPZ said: We had a 36 hour event the beginning of Feb 2022. Expand Would rather 6 inches over 24 hours than 24 inches over 6 hours. Just like to watch it snow. 2 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 11:40 PM, BristowWx said: Would rather 6 inches over 24 hours than 24 inches over 6 hours. Just like to watch it snow. Expand You’d pass on 4 inches of snow an hour rates for hours? 1 1 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Id be more disappointed in the 18z gfs if it was alot closer than 6 days out lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastCoast NPZ Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 11:40 PM, BristowWx said: Would rather 6 inches over 24 hours than 24 inches over 6 hours. Just like to watch it snow. Expand It'd have to be very cold for that to work. Almost impossible in daytime outside the mountains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Baby steps. Still reeling in the precip field from the sea. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 11:44 PM, SnowenOutThere said: You’d pass on 4 inches of snow an hour rates for hours? Expand I’m drunk just make it snow! I am not thinking clearly. Either is fine. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 yup pretty much lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 11, 2024 Share Posted January 11, 2024 Also for the 20th, precip on GEFS indicates the GoM is going to spin something up. Obviously as depicted it's OTS but given the beautiful bigger picture, hard to complain at this range... good to know there's potentially energy around, then got to get it in our neighborhood. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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