Mikeymac5306 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 35 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: Someone get Jobu some rum and a cigar and get this show started. Cerrano is bound to hit a curveball eventually. 4 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 7 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: You're thinking about it wrong imo. We don't have the skill to be able to make a "this many inches" forecast from 6 days out! That's why we call them "clown maps". But if you look at the mean SLP, H5, surface and 850 temps you get the picture that the guidance is indicating there is a pretty decent chance of a wave sliding along the boundary just to our south next Tuesday. A responsible and reasonable forecast right now would be "there is a chance of a storm along the east coast affecting us early next week, and there could be enough cold air for it to be snow. It could also still slide out to sea. We will keep an eye on it and know a lot more in a few days" You can try to give a more specific forecast but the truth is we don't have the ability to with any accuracy, you would just be guessing which of the possible solutions within the typical margin of error from this range is going to happen. But the guidance isn't showing EVERY solution. There is absolutely no chance of a snowstorm tomorrow, or Saturday. Not much of one Next Wednesday. 95% of the time there is NO chance of snow on a given day! So narrowing the scope to one where there is a reasonable chance of a storm that COULD be snow in our area next Tuesday is good enough for this range and the guidance does that. If you know what is important, what is just noise, and what are reasonable assumptions to make from them. I’m going to stop doing this. I know what I see from models and won’t be told different. Rather right now ride the wave of good potentiality 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I’m going to stop doing this. I know what I see from models and won’t be told different. Rather right now ride the wave of good potentiality You can check out the code here and decide where the programmers decided to put in the 'every option' lines. https://github.com/NOAA-EMC/fv3atm 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 wow, even the SPIRE model is moving our way. 00z: 12z 1 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Ok, it's about that time. Back from the gym in time. Goddamn resolutioners are back. Can't wait until March when 75% of them will be gone. Anyway, on with the show..... 4 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 30 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Where’s @stormtracker, getting near happy hour Hey baby 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I can't do the emotional roller coaster anymore so if the models lose this tonight or tomorrow morning, I'm out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 9 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said: I’m going to stop doing this. I know what I see from models and won’t be told different. Rather right now ride the wave of good potentiality Explain to me again how you know there is potential? 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Ok, it's about that time. Back from the gym in time. Goddamn resolutioners are back. Can't wait until March when 75% of them will be gone. Anyway, on with the show.....Got my beer and a joint ready to go. Mid-Atlantic country, let’s ride. . 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Fan of the icon at the end of its run. In fact I bet that would have lead to very euro like solution if it went beyond 120, happy hour time .Almost looks identical to euro 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Ok. Let’s make happy hour GooFuS count! One way or another, I’m in….happy hour mode. PS - Love what I’m seeing in the trends today. It’s goin snow!! Fingers crossed, knock on wood, etc etc. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, MN Transplant said: You can check out the code here and decide where the programmers decided to put in the 'every option' lines. https://github.com/NOAA-EMC/fv3atm OMFG 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 21 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: I thought Jan/Feb 2021 was pretty good and it was so close to a big period just not quite cold enough. The last time I was this excited for a pattern was March 2018, which kind of underperformed here. There were 4 legit threats and only 1 worked out. We were also fighting the end of our realistic snow climo towards the end of that period too. Yeah March 2018 was a bit maddening because had we had that pattern a month earlier...could've been a lot better! Instead the most memorable event was the rather historic windstorm, lol (which was kinda fun in it's own way) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 18z icon vs 12z euro, pretty amazing similarities . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Imgoinhungry Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I can't do the emotional roller coaster anymore so if the models lose this tonight or tomorrow morning, I'm out.Tonight or tomm? Lol. How will you manage when it loses it on sunday morning?. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, Heisy said: 18z icon vs 12z euro, pretty amazing similarities . This is evolving towards a frontrunner wave escaping and the trailing energy swinging around behind type deal which is a much better setup than what most guidance was suggesting yesterday. 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 The lead wave is problematic because its directly under the TPV which is tricky and most likely either squashed or would take a phase which would cut it west. The trailing wave is behind the TPV initially which is where we want a wave to be on approach. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I'd appreciate if this thing could speed up or slow down both are acceptable 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 20 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: I can't do the emotional roller coaster anymore so if the models lose this tonight or tomorrow morning, I'm out. You gotta hang in there man. Don't be the one on the coaster who throws up. Give it at least until Sunday 0z at least. Be a real Mid Atl and hope until hope has run out 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 This is evolving towards a frontrunner wave escaping and the trailing energy swinging around behind type deal which is a much better setup than what most guidance was suggesting yesterday. Yeppers, I didn’t foresee that possibility until I noticed the 6z eps/control hint at it. It allows the Front running wave to press the cold a little better. Then question becomes how much drag does the trailer wave have. If you noticed, the 12z euro actually missed a phase down south. Wonder if that would have been better or worst for us though. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 A Pacific jet extension sets up a favorable Pacific for the potential storm around the 20th. An extended NPAC Jet is generally favored in a Nino, and the MJO forcing moving away from the MC will help to facilitate it, resulting in a +PNA with the NE Pac low moving into a better location near the Aleutians. 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 You gotta hang in there man. Don't be the one on the coaster who throws up. Give it at least until Sunday 0z at least. Be a real Mid Atl and hope until hope has run outYea, and the type of system this is evolving into is also very reliant on timing. I could see the GFS squash everything to the SE for a suite or 2 wouldn’t be shocked if that happened. Probably be a good thing. We want the EPS to stay the course and improve though . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 So far, flatter than 12z, but TPV extension is a bit further east Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Can tell the GFS has morphed itself into the trailer wave idea as well, the trough is much farther backed up W vs prior runs. Timing will be more like euro . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: So far, flatter than 12z, but TPV extension is a bit further east Hopefully a delayed but not denied scenario like the euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Credit to @Terpeast here, the presentation of what happens to the saturday-sunday cutter has changed dramatically over the last 48 hours on the GFS. TPV further east, no low spinning backward over the hudson, etc. I buy in to the "models need to see what's coming next" theory... chaos theory etc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Hmm, yeah, it's later than 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Unless there's some surprise surprise, this run ain't it. I'm sorry yall. Dry af through 126 there is at least a pity trace Monday morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, NorthArlington101 said: there is at least a pity trace Monday morning I jumped the gun comparing 12z. It seems it's just later time frame Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, stormtracker said: I jumped the gun comparing 12z. It seems it's just later time frame Yep - things are getting gathered up to our S at 132. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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