WEATHER53 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 6:18 PM, stormtracker said: hmm, h5 on Euro is totally different than 0z so far Expand Because, they are show every possible outcome I think I’m beginning to understand that models are for fun but not forecasting. This can help alleviate some of my angst and poor interactions at times. When it shows snow and 28 at noon today for Tuesday and then shows rain and 60 at 18z then Neither was a Prediction of an actual high percentage outcome but rather an example of “if a,b,c, d” then such an outcome will follow and 6 hours later show “e,f,g,h” and just keep rotating every 6 hours. im happy to finally get this through my thick head and perhaps I can just sit back and enjoy the myriad of examples that will be forthcoming. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Someone else can do the snow maps 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 7:13 PM, CAPE said: Expand 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 7:03 PM, CAPE said: That's busy. A lot of vorticity interplay going on. Expand Busy is complicated...don't like complicated, lol (In general, do the NS waves tend to move faster than SS waves? I notice that you always see the NS flying around like a fast NFL secondary... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 7:12 PM, CAPE said: Miller A incoming on the EPS for the 16th Expand This was the depiction for the early Jan event about 4/5?days before we got rain and 50. I hit really excited about an A but turned out further north and west, stronger with excellent cold air scooting out in 24 hours and thus temps over 20 degrees warmer. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 7:18 PM, WEATHER53 said: This was the depiction for the early Jan event about 4/5?days before we got rain and 50. I hit really excited about an A but turned out further north and west, stronger with excellent cold air scooting out in 24 hours and thus temps over 30 degrees warmer. Expand Different setup. Legit cold air pressing SE, and in place. An overamped wave could still mess it up some for the lowlands. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Snow mean on the eps for just the 17th is 4-5 15 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Where is WW? Snow maps haven't looked this good on a mean for awhile. 3 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paleocene Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 7:21 PM, CAPE said: Where is WW? Snow maps haven't looked this good on a mean for awhile. Expand Pivotal free gives snow depth for EPS: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 stronger PV lobe into the 50/50 region makes all the difference 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 7:21 PM, CAPE said: Where is WW? Snow maps haven't looked this good on a mean for awhile. Expand Looking through his legal briefs. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 7:20 PM, CAPE said: Different setup. Legit cold air pressing SE, and in place. An overamped wave could still mess it up some for the lowlands. Expand And at the same time we need the wave to be amped enough to interact with the NS so it won't come together late either (do I have that right?). Balancing act... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 7:21 PM, CAPE said: Where is WW? Snow maps haven't looked this good on a mean for awhile. Expand Looking for the warmest or driest map from the control to post from 700 hours plus presumably... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 7:21 PM, CAPE said: Where is WW? Snow maps haven't looked this good on a mean for awhile.Maybe he’s trying reverse psychology where he doesn’t post every single snow map and it comes to fruition. Hell, weather53 just had their come to jeebus moment above regarding models showing outcome possibilities and not being a forecast in their own right. Ya never know . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 7:20 PM, CAPE said: Different setup. Legit cold air pressing SE, and in place. An overamped wave could still mess it up some for the lowlands. Expand Well at least a lot of Lows are being fired at Our target Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 7:23 PM, Paleocene said: Pivotal free gives snow depth for EPS: Expand Would love to see the members on that, to get a spread that good on depth maps in particular is encouraging. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 The 19th is a burp away from being a big time event 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 I really like what we are seeing on the Euro and EPS......do we think that this continues to trend south a bit more before the inevitable northern trend the last 48 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 7:28 PM, WinterWxLuvr said: The 19th is a burp away from being a big time event^ boom 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 wow at the EPS for the 19-20th 9 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wawarriors4 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 @RIC Airport posted this in the Richmond/SEVA thread..... 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Trend is friend! Trend is friend! Trend is friend! 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 I guess we are chipping away at the PDO. I was never a believer in PDO being a leading indicator, but this Winter sure has made a case. I think we are up to -0.6 and still having a tendency to rise, so maybe a more organized +PNA can get going here in the next few weeks. It's also amazing how these El Nino constants hold (warm Dec, good 2nd half of Winter). Let's see if the +PNA can hold through February, because we are coming off the most powerful 6-year constant on record (-PNA) for February ('18-23) 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 7:29 PM, jayyy said: ^ boom Expand Roses are red Violets are blue... I have to go to the bathroom...*burrrrp* Funny episode with him writing that song, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 7:30 PM, brooklynwx99 said: wow at the EPS for the 19-20th Expand 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 7:18 PM, WEATHER53 said: This was the depiction for the early Jan event about 4/5?days before we got rain and 50. I hit really excited about an A but turned out further north and west, stronger with excellent cold air scooting out in 24 hours and thus temps over 20 degrees warmer. Expand Yea but that event had no "real" cold air locked in and it just vanished as the high way up north quickly left this is a different scene now. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Mean reflects the same general idea as the op. Doesn't quite gets its act together in time. Long way to go on this one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 6:49 PM, brooklynwx99 said: jesus christ. the 20th is seriously legit. you have every single synoptic piece here: decaying WB -NAO Arctic antecedent airmass huge 50/50 ULL transient PNA spike from the diving GoAk LP amplifying vort upstream Expand But....do we/will we get a stj wave moving across which is the final piece? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 7:37 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: But....do we/will we get a stj wave moving across which is the final piece? Expand there are hints that there could be a vort traversing the southern US. I think this would be northern stream driven overall, but that can absolutely change. better to focus on the overall pattern right now, which is about as good as can be 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 7:37 PM, Ralph Wiggum said: But....do we/will we get a stj wave moving across which is the final piece? Expand thats the most important piece that he left out lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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