Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

[WEATHER53]

Since 1970 years when DCA had 5”+ of rain in Dec, and where Jan is headed the same way , were 1977-78 and 1986-87.

77-78 were like 4.9+ for both months and 86-87 5” Dec and 7” Jan.

Analog precedent rainfall pattern gives hope. 

[JenkinsJinkies]

4 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Since 1970 years when DCA had 5”+ of rain in Dec, and where Jan is headed the same way , were 1977-78 and 1986-87.

77-78 were like 4.9+ for both months and 86-87 5” Dec and 7” Jan.

Analog precedent rainfall pattern gives hope. 

Anything pre 2010 needs to account for CC when doing comparisons.

[WxUSAF]

5 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

12z GEFS seems…underwhelmed…for Tuesday.

But a bit more interested in the 20th…

[baltosquid]

You can see the trending signature on the precip map of the storm amping up off New England. But definitely more juiced overall even before that, hopefully that trend contributes to it coming in a bit more NW over time.

[WEATHER53]

4 minutes ago, JenkinsJinkies said:

Anything pre 2010 needs to account for CC when doing comparisons.

What I generally do is add 2-3F for 850s and surface.  It will make some rain but that 2-3 gets overcome when set up is solid 

[WEATHER53]

Let’s be frank  though-the pattern didn’t change and the delays continue.

we can still get a biggie orccouple old fashioned 3-5 inches but a persist cold and snowy winter with snow remaining on ground  is not in the cards but may yet assert itself upon 2-3 snowing occasions. 

[stormtracker]

1 hour ago, LeesburgWx said:

What do the snow maps look like? 

They are maps that show predicted snowfall accumulations, but that's not important right now.

[WinterWxLuvr]

33 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said:

You forgot to put the digital blue on the maps??

That’s because there is none

[ravensrule]

Just now, WinterWxLuvr said:

That’s because there is none

Do you have anything blue?. 

[stormtracker]

Here we go.  Days of Our Lives:  Will the Euro cave?  Will it hold?  Will it get better? Will Will show 1000 hour maps?

Stay Tuned

[baltosquid]

Didn't realize it initially but GEPS has some real cross polar flow in the picture for the 20th, ridiculous cold.

[WinterWxLuvr]

1 minute ago, ravensrule said:

Do you have anything blue?. 

Nope 

[WinterWxLuvr]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Here we go.  Days of Our Lives:  Will the Euro cave?  Will it hold?  Will it get better? Will Will show 1000 hour maps?

Stay Tuned

[ravensrule]

1 minute ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

Nope 

Darn, i guess i will have to wait for some ZR to show up on the maps. 

[midatlanticweather]

2 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Let’s be Frank though the pattern didn’t change and the delays continue.

we can still get a biggie it couple old fashioned 4-5 inches but a persist cold and snowy winter is not in the cards but may yet assert itself upon 3-3 snowing occasions. 

The pattern did get better. We do not have ideal set ups ever now when we get close to an event. We do not need ideal.. We need cold and then a storm in the southern branch and something to lock the cold in place for the duration of the precipitation event. Keep it simple.. Look for the simple.. And the details will be cleared up when we approach. We do not do complicated well.. If it gets complicated bet in fail. As PSU has said, we always need luck. Sometimes the pattern makes it more likely we will get lucky. We want to see those features get better as we approach storm time.. If they step back on subsequent runs of models, you know your luck is likely to run out. Doesn't mean in the end you don't get lucky, but you better hedge your bets. I am being captain obvious here. Let's get the cold and the cutter off the table and see if some better stuff shows up. That is all we can do. The thing that seems certain for next week is colder air will be around 

[WEATHER53]

1 hour ago, midatlanticweather said:

The pattern did get better. We do not have ideal set ups ever now when we get close to an event. We do not need ideal.. We need cold and then a storm in the southern branch and something to lock the cold in place for the duration of the precipitation event. Keep it simple.. Look for the simple.. And the details will be cleared up when we approach. We do not do complicated well.. If it gets complicated bet in fail. As PSU has said, we always need luck. Sometimes the pattern makes it more likely we will get lucky. We want to see those features get better as we approach storm time.. If they step back on subsequent runs of models, you know your luck is likely to run out. Doesn't mean in the end you don't get lucky, but you better hedge your bets. I am being captain obvious here. Let's get the cold and the cutter off the table and see if some better stuff shows up. That is all we can do. The thing that seems certain for next week is colder air will be around 

Colder air does appear likely next week so let’s get good things started .

at this moment the pattern Has Not changed, everything is 7-10 days away, and the excess rain in Dec with temps 60-65 has merely become excessive rain and highs 50-55 so far in Jan. I hope that pattern changes, it must,

[Daniel Boone]

6 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Colder air does appear likely next week so let’s get good things started .

at this moment the pattern Has Not changed, everything is 7-10 days away, and the excess rain in Dec with temps 60-65 has merely become excessive rain and highs 50-55?so far in Jan. I hope that pattern changes, it must,

Check the UKIE out... 

[BristowWx]

1 minute ago, Daniel Boone said:

Check the UKIE out... 

that bad?  sometimes its a harbinger of the things to come with Euro

[stormtracker]

1 minute ago, BristowWx said:

that bad?  sometimes its a harbinger of the things to come with Euro

Yes.  And then the next storm cuts to our west.  It would be a morale killer around here if it played out like that.

[Paleocene]

4 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yes.  And then the next storm cuts to our west.  It would be a morale killer around here if it played out like that.

[LeesburgWx]

What is the give up date for snow this year? 

[stormy]

Just now, LeesburgWx said:

What is the give up date for snow this year? 

April 10

[Weather Will]

22 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Here we go.  Days of Our Lives:  Will the Euro cave?  Will it hold?  Will it get better? Will Will show 1000 hour maps?

Stay Tuned

How about a picture from an historic time of snow covered roads?

[TSSN+]

I’d rather have things like meh at day 6 and good at day 3 then good and day 6 then meh by day 3

[stormtracker]

hmm, h5 on Euro is totally different than 0z so far

[TSSN+]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

hmm, h5 on Euro is totally different than 0z so far

Classic 

[psuhoffman]

49 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

But a bit more interested in the 20th…

That is the one with the best pattern support.  We just need a healthy STJ wave to come along within that 2 day window.  GFS almost pulled it off but the energy balance we needed was flipped on its head...too much NS not enough STJ.  Flip that and it would have been a big storm IMO.  

[Ralph Wiggum]

2 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

hmm, h5 on Euro is totally different than 0z so far

We are days away from a solution. @Terpeastis definitely correct, waiting until Saturday clears. Some guidance still showing a followup wave right on it's tail for the 14th. Until that midwest bomb clears, we just can't know.

[LP08]

Much slower out west with the SW coming into the west coast.

 

 

[psuhoffman]

44 minutes ago, WEATHER53 said:

Let’s be frank  though-the pattern didn’t change and the delays continue.

we can still get a biggie orccouple old fashioned 3-5 inches but a persist cold and snowy winter with snow remaining on ground  is not in the cards but may yet assert itself upon 2-3 snowing occasions. 

This is true if you judge every pattern by the duality of "Snow or no snow".  This is subjective of course.  IMO there are many different patterns and frankly most of them don't produce snow.  And even the ones that do dont always produce snow.  We need a good pattern and then we still need to get a little lucky.  If you pull up the mean longwave pattern its most definitely been opposite what it was prior to Xmas since...we just have not got lucky with the snow part of the equation.  Mostly its been too warm.