stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 It aint gonna do it. Stubborn. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, stormtracker said: It aint gonna do it. Stubborn. Icon or gfs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, yoda said: Icon or gfs? GFS 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, yoda said: Icon or gfs? The universe 2 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, stormtracker said: GFS the 500mb maps look pretty different though from 6z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 So, it managed to form a very weak storm but pulls it together over the ocean to our north. it's like a weaker version of the 0z. Euro it looks to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS not sure what you are looking at but the GFS looks closer than it has the past few runs 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Actually it's better vs 0z..looks like Boston and company benefit the most...but it does have light snow down to us. hmmm 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, Ji said: not sure what you are looking at but the GFS looks closer than it has the past few runs See post above Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Dare I say....GFS moving toward the Euro 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 much improved GFS in my opinion.....maybe the start of a trend 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 GFS=better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 IMO they are in the process of meeting in the middle from where they both were 48 hours ago. That should end up with us getting some pity flakes while just northeast of us gets a blizzard. We haven't had one of those in a while, time to feel that pain again. 4 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: See post above id take this run and call it a winter....in 22-23 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, psuhoffman said: IMO they are in the process of meeting in the middle from where they both were 48 hours ago. That should end up with us getting some pity flakes while just northeast of us gets a blizzard. We haven't had one of those in a while, time to feel that pain again. Yeah, seems to be the theme. Storm getting together, but too late for us. Euro was still better for us tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, Ji said: id take this run and call it a winter....in 22-23 You wouldnt 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: IMO they are in the process of meeting in the middle from where they both were 48 hours ago. That should end up with us getting some pity flakes while just northeast of us gets a blizzard. We haven't had one of those in a while, time to feel that pain again. please take a break from the board for 12 hours 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I'd take 1-3/2-4 in a heartbeat. Yeah, I want that old Euro solution... but this is fine 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Just now, stormtracker said: Yeah, seems to be the theme. Storm getting together, but too late for us. Euro was still better for us tho I know, and every once in a while things don't follow the "normal" outcomes, but we both know how that kind of synoptic progression with a late phase system starting to amplify right at out latitude usually works out for us. But its been so long since we had any snow we also know that everyone is going to latch on and hug any run that shows snow like their life depended on it only making the trauma that much worse when what is most likely coming happens. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Trend = Friend. . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: I know, and every once in a while things don't follow the "normal" outcomes, but we both know how that kind of synoptic progression with a late phase system starting to amplify right at out latitude usually works out for us. But its been so long since we had any snow we also know that everyone is going to latch on and hug any run that shows snow like their life depended on it only making the trauma that much worse when what is most likely coming happens. lol yesterday you were worried about the euro showing an early phase. Anyway...nobody is expecting a hecs from this storm. We would be happy with 2 inches. We are not like you where you get 50 inches a season without having to blink Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Improvement over Atlantic Canada. Less amplified wave probably has a lot to do with that. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, Ji said: please take a break from the board for 12 hours I can leave and you can start 17 new threads and it won't make a difference. None of this controls the weather. You know I'm right. Maybe things reverse today, but even the euro has been trending towards a messier later phase with a more progressive wave initially. We are pretty far southwest for that to work out, places northeast of us have way more time for a system to come together. We've played this game so many times, you know exactly what the most likely outcome is. IMO we want to see 2 things...we need an earlier phase so the system is organized by our latitude not just getting its act together...but then we also need a better trend in the 50/50 space or one of those SW's in the flow rotating around the main vortex to create some confluence on top to prevent that earlier phased system from cutting. If we get both of those trends we can get this to work. Late phase, late development, storm misses us mostly to the northeast. Early phase, no confluence storm cuts. We need both those things. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Canadian got better too. That’s really all we need. Small steps forward as the time gets closer and the data gets refreshed. Enough of this looks good at 7 and then gradually moves away. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Shad Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 nice snow on the canadian hours 144-156 at least things are improving at this range, ill take it 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 4 minutes ago, Ji said: lol yesterday you were worried about the euro showing an early phase. Anyway...nobody is expecting a hecs from this storm. We would be happy with 2 inches. We are not like you where you get 50 inches a season without having to blink I've had 50" one time in the last 8 years. But ok. I am NOT talking about what we need to get a HECS, that's not on the table with this setup. I am talking what we need to get a decent snow. 3-6" maybe. Not sure what you mean about yesterday, I've always said we needed an earlier phase but also a better outcome in the 50/50 space to offset, without that our window is very very narrow needing to thread the needle. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Now that we've cleared the first cutter, we're seeing the models trend towards an outcome (whatever that may be, for better or worse). Still have the next power cutter up before our period of interest, so we're probably not seeing the final solution on any of the models yet. Again, for better or for worse. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paulythegun Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 17 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: IMO they are in the process of meeting in the middle from where they both were 48 hours ago. That should end up with us getting some pity flakes while just northeast of us gets a blizzard. We haven't had one of those in a while, time to feel that pain again. I remember these well! before I knew to look at the 500mb stuff (and just stared at surface pressure and precip depictions) these were insanely frustrating. precip would build near the gulf with a low approaching from what appears to be the right angle. then the precip would suddenly disappear at the mountains, leaving DC high and dry....before it EXPLODED back onto the scene when the low bombed off the NJ coast. to a snow weenie with no clue why precip goes where it goes, this is one of the most painful events to witness. please be kind to surface map watchers. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
baltosquid Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Jeez were nearly a week out with a storm in between and you’d think snow miser just came through and told us he has cancer and left his estate to heat miser. We’ll see what happens but at this point I won’t look a positive trend in the mouth 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 What do the snow maps look like? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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