Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,583
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    23Yankee
    Newest Member
    23Yankee
    Joined

Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming


Jebman
 Share

Recommended Posts

4 hours ago, Heisy said:

GEFS vs 18z, that’s not what we want to see at 50/50 region

3ed386417deede641bb29f9c7be761e3.gif


.

Not sure it matters but a few times this season we've counted on a 50/50 look at range to help compress the flow and anchor in some relative cold and it either came in much weaker and sheared at game time or zipped on thru the 50/50 domain. So that feature has in fact been a thorn in our side already. Again, not sure what we can glean from past events, just noting it.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

personally, if I were to put my eggs in one basket, it would definitely be for the 19-20th. everything is there synoptically, just a matter of if a wave can pop or not... all the features are there, though - decaying WB -NAO, Rockies ridge, 50/50 confluence from the TPV

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5708800.thumb.png.04ffd809f671a38be8760738703f560b.png

  • Like 13
Link to comment
Share on other sites

31 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

personally, if I were to put my eggs in one basket, it would definitely be for the 19-20th. everything is there synoptically, just a matter of if a wave can pop or not... all the features are there, though - decaying WB -NAO, Rockies ridge, 50/50 confluence from the TPV

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5708800.thumb.png.04ffd809f671a38be8760738703f560b.png

We have a winnah.

  • Like 1
Link to comment
Share on other sites

Analogs are loading up for the d8-11 period. Recent notable dates are Jan 03, 04, and 96. 2003 was wintry but not much precip. Jan 2004 was an inch away from epic. Jan 96 showing up as well but opposite enso so theres that. Nearly all analogs center during periods of winter wx. Majority light/mixy but some impressive dates either way. 

  • Like 13
Link to comment
Share on other sites

54 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said:

personally, if I were to put my eggs in one basket, it would definitely be for the 19-20th. everything is there synoptically, just a matter of if a wave can pop or not... all the features are there, though - decaying WB -NAO, Rockies ridge, 50/50 confluence from the TPV

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-namer-z500_anom-5708800.thumb.png.04ffd809f671a38be8760738703f560b.png

 Looks very nice!!! Im hoping we can get a decent storm in this pattern

 Hate to see it be a waste!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Just now, Bob Chill said:

Analogs are loading up for the d8-11 period. Recent notable dates are Jan 03, 04, and 96. 2003 was wintry but not much precip. Jan 2004 was an inch away from epic. Jan 96 showing up as well but opposite enso so theres that. Nearly all analogs center during periods of winter wx. Majority light/mixy but some impressive dates either way. 

Looks promising to me ill admit... but. Been many times its looked good 8+ days out only to change as we get closer

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Create an account or sign in to comment

You need to be a member in order to leave a comment

Create an account

Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!

Register a new account

Sign in

Already have an account? Sign in here.

Sign In Now
 Share

  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.
×
×
  • Create New...