CAPE Posted January 9 Share Posted January 9 Not looking big dog at this juncture on the GEFS, but the 20th still looks favorable overall. The mean seems to imply a moderate event is doable. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Look at hr 192. Total dry coast to coast. All four corners. Maybe that’s just a wipe slate clean reset. Not often you see that We fail all kinds of ways Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Look at hr 192. Total dry coast to coast. All four corners. Maybe that’s just a wipe slate clean reset. Not often you see that It's the big reset, and that's not a good thing. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 hour ago, BristowWx said: Look at hr 192. Total dry coast to coast. All four corners. Maybe that’s just a wipe slate clean reset. Not often you see that Drought confirmed 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 It's the big reset, and that's not a good thing. It’s not actually a big reset. The EPS reloads the block and the southern stream becomes active again 3-4 days after things “break down” . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I'm pretty optimistic about at least 1 decent event this month. I don't like seeing so many runs with mix lines west of 95 tho. It's been a strong personality trait this winter. Sometimes those are hard to shake. We'll see This is one of the wettest winters I can remember. There has been no storm break yet. It feels like we are due Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 10 minutes ago, Ji said: This is one of the wettest winters I can remember. There has been no storm break yet. It feels like we are due Correct, there will be lot's of dew tomorrow morning 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 22 minutes ago, Solution Man said: We fail all kinds of ways Everything except rain and traffic. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 8 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Correct, there will be lot's of dew tomorrow morning "Roll away the dew" - Jerry Garcia 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Got the kayak out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 5 minutes ago, snowfan said: Got the kayak out. Yer gonna need a bigger boat 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10 Author Share Posted January 10 Cue the menacing Jaws score 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Long range looks just a bit conflicted on the GEFS. Don't care to pore over the members. The upshot on the LR mean is maybe a mediocre late month period at worst. NA looks ok. The Pacific looks serviceable or better. Verbatim average temps in the east. My wag is it ends up avg or colder than avg. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 3 minutes ago, Jebman said: Cue the menacing Jaws score Is a HECS in bound? Wait, what thread am I in….I am so confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Yer gonna need a bigger boat The Titanic sunk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: Long range looks just a bit conflicted on the GEFS. Don't care to pore over the members. The upshot on the LR mean is maybe a mediocre late month period at worst. NA looks ok. The Pacific looks serviceable or better. Verbatim average temps in the east. My wag is it ends up avg or colder than avg. yeah, you aren't very warm with the Pacific like that. would last for a week, at most 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 I like the long range.. ridge builds off the west coast, PNA goes positive.. this positive PNA evolution is fitting exactly the 15 analogs I came up with that had a -PNA Jan 5-13, during an El Nino or Neutral ENSO. I thought it was telling, because in roll forwards you usually see the same variable smoothed out, but it gave me a reversal to -100-120dm Aleutian low and 80dm -epo by Jan 25th. Now look at what's happening when all this positive change is happening on the model... The NAO is +. And it looks like a 2std positive event with -200dm on the D14-15 ensemble mean. I was telling PSUhoffman that, that is what we need right now to flip to a favorable pattern in the Pacific and probably on the west coast.. let's hope these probabilities hold as we go into the last week of January. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 So are we now just completely writing off any potential next week? 24 hours after saying it was loaded with potential? What are we doing in here? 5 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, TSSN+ said: The Titanic sunk. Then use Noah's Ark...think that held up pretty well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 11 minutes ago, Steve25 said: So are we now just completely writing off any potential next week? 24 hours after saying it was loaded with potential? What are we doing in here? Who suggested that? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 Can you imagine if someone had told you that you would have 10 inches of liquid since Nov 20 and no snow by now? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 1 minute ago, CAPE said: Who suggested that? The last few runs? Maybe 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 If GFS is right, I’d suggest chase to the mountains this holiday weekend. This includes 2-3” of upslope overnight/tomorrow but GFS is really honking the upslope potential which would be a boon for Wisp/Canaan. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 14 minutes ago, Steve25 said: So are we now just completely writing off any potential next week? 24 hours after saying it was loaded with potential? What are we doing in here? 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: Who suggested that? Just seems like the entire discussion has switched to just hoping we can turn things around the last week of January and into February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 9 minutes ago, Ji said: Can you imagine if someone had told you that you would have 10 inches of liquid since Nov 20 and no snow by now? You can say that again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 You can say that again Let me say it in a different thread now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 25 minutes ago, Ji said: Can you imagine if someone had told you that you would have 10 inches of liquid since Nov 20 and no snow by now? I would have told you it's wet.. It's Global Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 6 minutes ago, Steve25 said: Just seems like the entire discussion has switched to just hoping we can turn things around the last week of January and into February Inaccurate interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10 Share Posted January 10 18z control is kind of odd at end of run. Just posting cause it tends to follow OP pretty closely and im bored. Trough is really positively tilted. It almost looks like it was gonna dig and close off at the back end of the trough, which would have maybe allowed the front to clear first. Almost anafrontal…Here is 18z eps as well . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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