Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 12:25 AM, Solution Man said: Correct, there will be lot's of dew tomorrow morning Expand "Roll away the dew" - Jerry Garcia 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Got the kayak out. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 12:43 AM, snowfan said: Got the kayak out. Expand Yer gonna need a bigger boat 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10, 2024 Author Share Posted January 10, 2024 Cue the menacing Jaws score 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Long range looks just a bit conflicted on the GEFS. Don't care to pore over the members. The upshot on the LR mean is maybe a mediocre late month period at worst. NA looks ok. The Pacific looks serviceable or better. Verbatim average temps in the east. My wag is it ends up avg or colder than avg. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 12:50 AM, Jebman said: Cue the menacing Jaws score Expand Is a HECS in bound? Wait, what thread am I in….I am so confused. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 12:49 AM, Ralph Wiggum said: Yer gonna need a bigger boat Expand The Titanic sunk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 12:55 AM, CAPE said: Long range looks just a bit conflicted on the GEFS. Don't care to pore over the members. The upshot on the LR mean is maybe a mediocre late month period at worst. NA looks ok. The Pacific looks serviceable or better. Verbatim average temps in the east. My wag is it ends up avg or colder than avg. Expand yeah, you aren't very warm with the Pacific like that. would last for a week, at most 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 I like the long range.. ridge builds off the west coast, PNA goes positive.. this positive PNA evolution is fitting exactly the 15 analogs I came up with that had a -PNA Jan 5-13, during an El Nino or Neutral ENSO. I thought it was telling, because in roll forwards you usually see the same variable smoothed out, but it gave me a reversal to -100-120dm Aleutian low and 80dm -epo by Jan 25th. Now look at what's happening when all this positive change is happening on the model... The NAO is +. And it looks like a 2std positive event with -200dm on the D14-15 ensemble mean. I was telling PSUhoffman that, that is what we need right now to flip to a favorable pattern in the Pacific and probably on the west coast.. let's hope these probabilities hold as we go into the last week of January. 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 So are we now just completely writing off any potential next week? 24 hours after saying it was loaded with potential? What are we doing in here? 5 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 12:57 AM, TSSN+ said: The Titanic sunk. Expand Then use Noah's Ark...think that held up pretty well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 1:01 AM, Steve25 said: So are we now just completely writing off any potential next week? 24 hours after saying it was loaded with potential? What are we doing in here? Expand Who suggested that? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 Can you imagine if someone had told you that you would have 10 inches of liquid since Nov 20 and no snow by now? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 1:12 AM, CAPE said: Who suggested that? Expand The last few runs? Maybe 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 If GFS is right, I’d suggest chase to the mountains this holiday weekend. This includes 2-3” of upslope overnight/tomorrow but GFS is really honking the upslope potential which would be a boon for Wisp/Canaan. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 1:01 AM, Steve25 said: So are we now just completely writing off any potential next week? 24 hours after saying it was loaded with potential? What are we doing in here? Expand 1 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Steve25 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 1:12 AM, CAPE said: Who suggested that? Expand Just seems like the entire discussion has switched to just hoping we can turn things around the last week of January and into February 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 1:14 AM, Ji said: Can you imagine if someone had told you that you would have 10 inches of liquid since Nov 20 and no snow by now? Expand You can say that again 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 1:24 AM, aldie 22 said: You can say that again Let me say it in a different thread now 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 1:14 AM, Ji said: Can you imagine if someone had told you that you would have 10 inches of liquid since Nov 20 and no snow by now? Expand I would have told you it's wet.. It's Global Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 1:23 AM, Steve25 said: Just seems like the entire discussion has switched to just hoping we can turn things around the last week of January and into February Expand Inaccurate interpretation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 18z control is kind of odd at end of run. Just posting cause it tends to follow OP pretty closely and im bored. Trough is really positively tilted. It almost looks like it was gonna dig and close off at the back end of the trough, which would have maybe allowed the front to clear first. Almost anafrontal…Here is 18z eps as well . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Frederick Weather Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 EURO ENS Juiced! 7 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 1:38 AM, Heisy said: 18z control is kind of odd at end of run. Just posting cause it tends to follow OP pretty closely and im bored. Trough is really positively tilted. It almost looks like it was gonna dig and close off at the back end of the trough, which would have maybe allowed the front to clear first. Almost anafrontal… Here is 18z eps as well . Expand The control certainly doesn't look the gfs with the tail end if the trough. GfS much further east with it all. I would say the Control was going to have a storm in the East with that h5. Don't know if it would be a good track for us but plenty of energy left at the end. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 1:38 AM, Heisy said: 18z control is kind of odd at end of run. Just posting cause it tends to follow OP pretty closely and im bored. Trough is really positively tilted. It almost looks like it was gonna dig and close off at the back end of the trough, which would have maybe allowed the front to clear first. Almost anafrontal… Here is 18z eps as well . Expand Mean looks nearly identical to the 12z run to me. Don't really care about a control run ever. It's either off on a tangent or similar to the op. So go with the op. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 1:42 AM, Frederick Weather said: EURO ENS Juiced! Expand Pretty close match to 12z. Timing a bit different. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 12:58 AM, Stormchaserchuck1 said: I like the long range.. ridge builds off the west coast, PNA goes positive.. this positive PNA evolution is fitting exactly the 15 analogs I came up with that had a -PNA Jan 5-13, during an El Nino or Neutral ENSO. I thought it was telling, because in roll forwards you usually see the same variable smoothed out, but it gave me a reversal to -100-120dm Aleutian low and 80dm -epo by Jan 25th. Now look at what's happening when all this positive change is happening on the model... The NAO is +. And it looks like a 2std positive event with -200dm on the D14-15 ensemble mean. I was telling PSUhoffman that, that is what we need right now to flip to a favorable pattern in the Pacific and probably on the west coast.. let's hope these probabilities hold as we go into the last week of January. Expand Except the snow mean on the long range guidance looks absolutely atrocious for the one week we have the +nao +pna. It starts to look better once the nao flips negative again. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 2:05 AM, psuhoffman said: Except the snow mean on the long range guidance looks absolutely atrocious for the one week we have the +nao +pna. It starts to look better once the nao flips negative again. Expand I mean when the snow mean looks good not like we win usually either lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted January 10, 2024 Author Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 1:14 AM, Ji said: Can you imagine if someone had told you that you would have 10 inches of liquid since Nov 20 and no snow by now? Expand I'd have said we have a warmer base state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 10, 2024 Share Posted January 10, 2024 On 1/10/2024 at 1:23 AM, Steve25 said: Just seems like the entire discussion has switched to just hoping we can turn things around the last week of January and into February Expand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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