BristowWx Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 9:45 PM, stormtracker said: Ok, time for 18z GFS disappointment Expand Fix a drink and get a mallet. Both help quite a bit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 8:43 PM, psuhoffman said: Frankly we've already had the pattern since Xmas...just not the snow yet Expand part of me wants this to fail to see the ultimate winter will never happen again post for you and a total meltdown of the ages 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 7:34 PM, winter_warlock said: 23 members have me getting accumulated snows in central md. Not bad for 6 days out. Im sure it will change a few times lol Expand i dont see many members that show rain. Its more snow and ice or nothing than rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 9:51 PM, BristowWx said: Fix a drink and get a mallet. Both help quite a bit Expand My consolation prize is already set. Regardless of the fail, I win. Know why? Taco Tuesday. And get this...I'm making them with NACHO CHEESE shells. Yup. Mmmhmm. How 'bout that W? 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 One minor detail I noticed. I’m a sicko and like to compare “good” outcome runs “bad” outcome runs for snow. Today what I noticed is that the model runs that are better for us tend to have these two shortwaves phasing better. The farther apart these two the worst the outcome ends up being for our region fwiw. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 9:03 PM, Deck Pic said: true, but then it kind of comes down to expectations. And understandably yours are generally higher given you average 200%+ of my climo. I'm not really a HECS chaser. I'd lock in a 3-4" front end thump just to get on the board Expand Why does everyone think I’d be unhappy with 3-4” of snow? Maybe if it was a fringe and 20 miles away got 12”+ then ya that kinda sucks. But I was thrilled with that 3-4” storm I got in December! When I’m analyzing patterns my goals are big. I can’t control anything so why not look for signals for big storms? But that doesn’t mean I’m unhappy if we get a regular snow. And it’s not like we’re getting those anyways. It’s not been snowing at all lately. My issue with progressive waves isn’t that they aren’t a HECS. It’s that they typically have a narrow zone of snow and the patterns that produce them are rarely going to lead to a snowy season. Rooting to get lucky with those is basically setting our high bar for the season at below average for the region as a whole. Ya maybe someone gets lucky to hit a couple and beat climo but as a whole we don’t get snowy seasons that way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 9:57 PM, Ji said: i dont see many members that show rain. Its more snow and ice or nothing than rain Expand Amen to that bro!!Id rather have snow. If its not gonna snow then be sunny lol dont want rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 Didn't he just cancel winter? #Summer2024 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 9:57 PM, stormtracker said: My consolation prize is already set. Regardless of the fail, I win. Know why? Taco Tuesday. And get this...I'm making them with NACHO CHEESE shells. Yup. Mmmhmm. How 'bout that W? Expand 1 9 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 9:57 PM, stormtracker said: My consolation prize is already set. Regardless of the fail, I win. Know why? Taco Tuesday. And get this...I'm making them with NACHO CHEESE shells. Yup. Mmmhmm. How 'bout that W? Expand Dayumm. I love tacos!!! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 10:00 PM, CAPE said: Didn't he just cancel winter? #Summer2024 Expand Well. I guess seeing the recent modeling made him a believer again lol.. im sure he will cancel winter again when he gets disappointed lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 Well so far, GFS vs Euro H5 is completely different still 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 9:56 PM, Ji said: part of me wants this to fail to see the ultimate winter will never happen again post for you and a total meltdown of the ages Expand Not gonna happen. For the last 7 years every failure has been couched by “but Nina” by the crowd that doesn’t want to acknowledge the “elephant”. Meanwhile we’ve had a Nino and 2 neutral winters in there and they made convenient excuses to dismiss that fact. I’ve made my case that while the persistent Nina base state is part of this, I’ve never denied that, but more is going on contributing here. If we have a total fail during a second Nino, one that did couple and produced the pattern we wanted…at that point I don’t have to say anything. “Scoreboard” should be plenty enough. Anyone still in denial isn’t going to be swayed by some novel I write on here so what’s the point? 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 18z gfs Gfs vs euro around day 5, a lot to iron out . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 yeah, it's not gonna do it this time. No 50/50 lobe like the Euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 10:07 PM, Heisy said: 18z gfs Gfs vs euro around day 5, a lot to iron out . Expand does euro still have that hold delay issue it had 20 years ago lol where it would hold the s/w in desert too long? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winter_warlock Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 10:04 PM, stormtracker said: Well so far, GFS vs Euro H5 is completely different still Expand Well its 7 days out. Hopefully they will be in better agreement as we get closer.. euro has been pretty consisted last 3 or 4 runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 10:04 PM, stormtracker said: Well so far, GFS vs Euro H5 is completely different still Expand my money is on the GFS. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 My theory holds, those two pieces I mentioned were farther apart, hence a worst “snow” run. The runs that phases those waves quicker (like 00z euro) allowed spacing between the tpv and main shortwave and end better for us . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 10:13 PM, Ji said: my money is on the GFS. Expand Yep Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 10:13 PM, Ji said: my money is on the GFS. Expand Of course 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 Not sure this is the change we want. More NS interaction overtop a weakening, strung out wave, and higher heights over the Canadian Maritimes.. Kind of a lose-lose. Only another op run though! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 10:19 PM, CAPE said: Not sure this is the change we want. More NS interaction overtop a weakening, strung out wave, and higher heights over the Canadian Maritimes.. Kind of a lose-lose. Only another op run though! Expand its starting to slip away 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 10:21 PM, Ji said: its starting to slip away Expand EPS, the better model, looks pretty good rn. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 10:00 PM, H2O said: Expand He’s back Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 10:24 PM, Solution Man said: He’s back Expand Look at hr 192. Total dry coast to coast. All four corners. Maybe that’s just a wipe slate clean reset. Not often you see that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
poolz1 Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 10:13 PM, Heisy said: My theory holds, those two pieces I mentioned were farther apart, hence a worst “snow” run. The runs that phases those waves quicker (like 00z euro) allowed spacing between the tpv and main shortwave and end better for us . Expand Agreed. Euro also brings our sw into the CA/OR border. GFS has been consistent into Seattle. SW coming into the west coast further south and more phasing of the first system both allow for more separation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 10:24 PM, CAPE said: EPS, the better model, looks pretty good rn. Expand i know. its just an uneasy feeling when the euro/eps is not in agreement with the GFS. not having a snowstorm for 2 years makes you think of the worst case scenario everytime 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 Big disagreement between gfs and euro. I don’t think they can “see” past these two powerful midwest storms. We shouldn’t get invested in any potential solutions beyond the 13th at this point. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 9, 2024 Share Posted January 9, 2024 On 1/9/2024 at 10:26 PM, BristowWx said: Look at hr 192. Total dry coast to coast. All four corners. Maybe that’s just a wipe slate clean reset. Not often you see that Expand lol the southern stream has been non stop since Nov 20 till we finally get cold enough? 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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