Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

[psuhoffman]

  On 1/9/2024 at 6:34 PM, MN Transplant said:

500 is messier than 00z

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It's messy, but given all the players here I don't expect to see any consistency between runs.  But one thing I REALLY like is the last couple runs of the euro trended this way and now this run completely splits the TPV and ends up with a peice in the 50/50 space.  IF that part of this is real it increases our chances of a win if the other parts line up later on.  WIthout that 50/50 feature...even if the other parts come together we could still lose with a cutter.  If we trend towards a nice 50/50 feature then we can just root for a more phased stronger amplified wave...simple, without having to root for 10,000 little things to play together nicely.  Just my take on this so far.  

[NorthArlington101]

it's close - dc firmly in the mixy zone again.

[Ji]

  On 1/9/2024 at 6:38 PM, psuhoffman said:

It's messy, but given all the players here I don't expect to see any consistency between runs.  But one thing I REALLY like is the last couple runs of the euro trended this way and now this run completely splits the TPV and ends up with a peice in the 50/50 space.  IF that part of this is real it increases our chances of a win if the other parts line up later on.  WIthout that 50/50 feature...even if the other parts come together we could still lose with a cutter.  If we trend towards a nice 50/50 feature then we can just root for a more phased stronger amplified wave...simple, without having to root for 10,000 little things to play together nicely.  Just my take on this so far.  

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the run even with messy 500 produced our best storm in 2 years lol

[stormtracker]

1000mb Low off DE coast at 180.  Still with the pesky 850 line just west of the cities, still sub freezing at sfc

[stormtracker]

  On 1/9/2024 at 6:39 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

it's close - dc firmly in the mixy zone again.

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Yup

[psuhoffman]

  On 1/9/2024 at 6:38 PM, Terpeast said:

Could be a wash because its more positively tilted even if more phased

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on the whole I like some of the changes... I want to be in a position where we can root for a more amplified solution not against it, so getting more confluence and a stronger 50/50 feature in front and a more positive tilted alignment of the whole features initially, puts us in that position where we now want a stronger solution possibly.  

[stormtracker]

So, it's consistent....with itself in a way.   Def not the GFS 

[Ji]

  On 1/9/2024 at 6:39 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

it's close - dc firmly in the mixy zone again.

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main takeway at this point is that euro has a good storm....we can worry about details in a few days. been rock solid with at the the basics of  good storm for about 4 runs now in a row. Nothing washed out like GFS

[NorthArlington101]

verbatim - Kuchera a lot worse than the 10:1

[Ji]

  On 1/9/2024 at 6:40 PM, stormtracker said:

So, it's consistent....with itself in a way.   Def not the GFS 

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you remember the days where if the euro had a storm 3 days in a row it was a virtual lock?

 

me neither

[stormtracker]

lol

[stormtracker]

  On 1/9/2024 at 6:41 PM, NorthArlington101 said:

verbatim - Kuchera a lot worse than the 10:1

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Even the snow is afraid of 1-95.

I'm not even all that mad tbh.  Nobody should be sweating this at this range AND the best news is....there's an actual storm still on the model.

[Terpeast]

  On 1/9/2024 at 6:40 PM, psuhoffman said:

on the whole I like some of the changes... I want to be in a position where we can root for a more amplified solution not against it, so getting more confluence and a stronger 50/50 feature in front and a more positive tilted alignment of the whole features initially, puts us in that position where we now want a stronger solution possibly.  

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Sounds like 12z euro is the most amped of the 3 models this run. 

I noticed you tagged me on your question as to why we get a perfect pac and atlantic and the trough dumps SW and we get a SE ridge. I know you’re looking for an answer, but all I have to say is that I don’t know. I don’t have any answers for that. 

[MN Transplant]

Good news here is that the precip is still significant.  Not quite as much as 00z, but still most of us are 0.8"-1.0" QPF.

[Heisy]

  On 1/9/2024 at 6:43 PM, Terpeast said:

Sounds like 12z euro is the most amped of the 3 models this run. 
I noticed you tagged me on your question as to why we get a perfect pac and atlantic and the trough dumps SW and we get a SE ridge. I know you’re looking for an answer, but all I have to say is that I don’t know. I don’t have any answers for that. 

This storm relies a lot on what happens to that streamer around the 14th. It ends up turning into our 50/50. We need that to trend stronger


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[psuhoffman]

  On 1/9/2024 at 6:39 PM, Ji said:

the run even with messy 500 produced our best storm in 2 years lol

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not really... or are you going to make the same mistake as many did with the last "threat".  The 50/50 moved out too soon, there is NOTHING to stop the mid level southerly flow, the low tracks a little too close given those first 2 things...the exact solution the euro is showing here would NOT end the way you want it too, it would trend the same exact way the last how many of these threats that looked good if you only pay attention to a clow snow map did.  

But this one has more potential to trend better given some of the other details here.  There is more cold around.  There is a 50/50 which is a new feature actually and if it continues to trend stronger could change this equation.  There is a lot of stream interaction that could change the equation.  The last event was much more simple and locked into a general progression at range than this one is.  But this run exactly as is was not what I want the final solution to be or the snow will end up NW of us.  We could get a nastier ice solution though with more cold around this time from that kind of progression.  

[Terpeast]

  On 1/9/2024 at 6:46 PM, Heisy said:

This storm relies a lot on what happens to that streamer around the 14th. It ends up turning into our 50/50. We need that to trend stronger


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Yeah and thats why we shouldn’t get too invested until the second cutter is in progress and or so well modeled that it’s details are locked in

[stormtracker]

  On 1/9/2024 at 6:43 PM, Terpeast said:

Sounds like 12z euro is the most amped of the 3 models this run. 

I noticed you tagged me on your question as to why we get a perfect pac and atlantic and the trough dumps SW and we get a SE ridge. I know you’re looking for an answer, but all I have to say is that I don’t know. I don’t have any answers for that. 

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Honestly, I do wish it were the other way around and the GFS had it.  I still can't believe I'm saying this and have said it a few times.  If you were to tell me we'd be hoping for this 5 years ago, I would have banned you from the board.  I know supposedly the Euro has better scores(?), but I gotta say, in perception anyway, the GFS is slaying it gurrrl. 

[Heisy]

  On 1/9/2024 at 6:46 PM, psuhoffman said:

not really... or are you going to make the same mistake as many did with the last "threat".  The 50/50 moved out too soon, there is NOTHING to stop the mid level southerly flow, the low tracks a little too close given those first 2 things...the exact solution the euro is showing here would NOT end the way you want it too, it would trend the same exact way the last how many of these threats that looked good if you only pay attention to a clow snow map did.  
But this one has more potential to trend better given some of the other details here.  There is more cold around.  There is a 50/50 which is a new feature actually and if it continues to trend stronger could change this equation.  There is a lot of stream interaction that could change the equation.  The last event was much more simple and locked into a general progression at range than this one is.  But this run exactly as is was not what I want the final solution to be or the snow will end up NW of us.  We could get a nastier ice solution though with more cold around this time from that kind of progression.  

Exactly, this isn’t a snowstorm without that 50/50 trending in better spot/stronger. Unless the main wave ends up being really really flat and we just get snow showers/light snow. Any deep trough with that TPV position neeeds a 50/50.


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[Ralph Wiggum]

  On 1/9/2024 at 5:27 PM, psuhoffman said:

12z GFS offered another way to fail lol....fails to phase threat 1.   TPV stays west intially to suppress the next wave.  Then it does slide east into the perfect spot...but a NS SW dives down from the north pole and dives southwest!!!! and phases with a system in California and cuts off on the west coast pumping a huge ridge in the east before anything else can come along.   I have NEVER seen that before ever...a system that starts out over the north pole...with a trough in the east and an EPO ridge...dives southwest and cuts off along the west coast.  WTF

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Dumb ways to fail.

[Terpeast]

  On 1/9/2024 at 6:47 PM, stormtracker said:

Honestly, I do wish it were the other way around and the GFS had it.  I still can't believe I'm saying this and have said it a few times.  If you were to tell me we'd be hoping for this 5 years ago, I would have banned you from the board.  I know supposedly the Euro has better scores(?), but I gotta say, in perception anyway, the GFS is slaying it gurrrl. 

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I think the GFS is probably a wee bit too far SE. it may trend closer to the coast, as did the 12z gefs

[psuhoffman]

  On 1/9/2024 at 6:48 PM, Heisy said:

Exactly, this isn’t a snowstorm without that 50/50 trending in better spot/stronger. Unless the main wave ends up being really really flat and we just get snow showers/light snow. Any deep trough with that TPV position neeeds a 50/50.


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yup 

[Heisy]

Only thing I’m not happy about right now is it does seem like the models are sending us the faint signal they like C PA up thru interior NE. Ignore the amount, just the placement.




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[Ji]

  On 1/9/2024 at 6:46 PM, psuhoffman said:

not really... or are you going to make the same mistake as many did with the last "threat".  The 50/50 moved out too soon, there is NOTHING to stop the mid level southerly flow, the low tracks a little too close given those first 2 things...the exact solution the euro is showing here would NOT end the way you want it too, it would trend the same exact way the last how many of these threats that looked good if you only pay attention to a clow snow map did.  

But this one has more potential to trend better given some of the other details here.  There is more cold around.  There is a 50/50 which is a new feature actually and if it continues to trend stronger could change this equation.  There is a lot of stream interaction that could change the equation.  The last event was much more simple and locked into a general progression at range than this one is.  But this run exactly as is was not what I want the final solution to be or the snow will end up NW of us.  We could get a nastier ice solution though with more cold around this time from that kind of progression.  

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your main focus last week was that the air mass out ahead of the storm was crap. This air mass is totally different so we have more wiggle room. This is not last weeks storm. If we cant get a snowstorm with a severe -NAO in mid January than what are we doing here. What usually would keep the 50 50 low locked in place?

 

[brooklynwx99]

  On 1/9/2024 at 6:52 PM, Ji said:

your main focus last week was that the air mass out ahead of the storm was crap. This air mass is totally different so we have more wiggle room. This is not last weeks storm. If we cant get a snowstorm with a severe -NAO in mid January than what are we doing here. What usually would keep the 50 50 low locked in place?

 

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50/50 ULLs usually form in mature patterns as the block is decaying. this is why I think the 19-20th has greater potential, not to diminish this threat

[CAPE]

  On 1/9/2024 at 6:52 PM, Ji said:

your main focus last week was that the air mass out ahead of the storm was crap. This air mass is totally different so we have more wiggle room. This is not last weeks storm. If we cant get a snowstorm with a severe -NAO in mid January than what are we doing here. What usually would keep the 50 50 low locked in place?

 

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What keeps a 50-50 low 'in place' is a true (rex) block. A dipole. We have that here, but the vortex part of the block isn't where we want it.

[Carvers Gap]

  On 1/9/2024 at 6:18 PM, psuhoffman said:

Look at my last post...all those snows were in a -PDO.  

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I am saying that is why the trough goes in the West so often despite decent teleconnections at high latitude.   I though that was the question.

[Ralph Wiggum]

  On 1/9/2024 at 6:51 PM, Heisy said:

Only thing I’m not happy about right now is it does seem like the models are sending us the faint signal they like C PA up thru interior NE. Ignore the amount, just the placement.




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Yep, very reminiscent of a recent system, oh, say 3 days ago. 

[CAPE]

All I'll say about the 12z EURO is too much NS interaction too far west for my liking. Unless we get lucky with a well timed 50-50, we don't want too much amplification. I gave my opinions this morning on a couple ways we can pull something out given the NS convolution. 

[Heisy]

Not sure anyone noticed, but last nights euro and todays had freezing rain for our regions. Guess the cold dome is strong enough



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