Jan Medium/Long Range Disco 2: Total Obliteration is Coming

[Ralph Wiggum]

GEFS took a move towards more coastal lows. Not quite where the eps is but a notable increase from 0z.

[Bob Chill]

1 hour ago, frd said:

Could trend North.  What our thoughts on that ?  Also connected NAO and WAR gone .

Also looks like cross polar flow.  Hope not cold and dry.   Baroclinic zone might help us possibly. Damn I just want snow.  

Considering the personality of this winter, the last thing on my mind is models locking in suppressed at long leads. Lol. Sure, it could happen any winter for many reasons. This winter doesn't want to carve east with any kind of efficiency. Everything has been "loosening up" in the mid range so far. I won't bet against that until I lose the hand. 

[winter_warlock]

4 hours ago, stormtracker said:

Remember the days when we'd rejoice at the Euro having it and not worry about the GFS?   And now it's the other way around?

What a time to be alive.  This should be a morale booster for the forum for like 12 hours. 

Yessir!!!!

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

GFS is properly cold after the Tuesday storm.  That would be great.  6 inches of snow and then a week below freezing temps.  

[brooklynwx99]

overall synoptic setup is very favorable on the 20th as the block decays and the TPV vacates towards the 50/50 region. wouldn't be surprised to see models pick up on something here

[CAPE]

3 hours ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

GEFS took a move towards more coastal lows. Not quite where the eps is but a notable increase from 0z.

How this storm goes appears to be largely tied to the timing of NS energy and the degree of interaction/phasing. Two of the last 3 GFS runs have a healthy precip shield with moderate snow in the Tenn valley, but a piece of NS vorticity drops down on top and damps the wave, thus we see weaker surface reflection and the precip weakens as it moves eastward. The 2 basic options for a 'good' outcome seem to be- phase the NS energy with the southern wave right around the Mississippi river valley- a lot more dig and more potential, but not too far west where it amplifies too soon and tracks inland; the other option is the southern shortwave slides eastward underneath that NS vorticity ribbon with little to no interaction. A flatter solution but less complicated.

[Scraff]

The Jebman Total Obliteration Thread. That’s EXACTLY what I (and all of us) needed to wake up to. Well that and some GooFuS & Euro love. Game on! Someone needs to see if the old bus can even run anymore. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

32 minutes ago, Scraff said:

The Jebman Total Obliteration Thread. That’s EXACTLY what I (and all of us) needed to wake up to. Well that and some GooFuS & Euro love. Game on! Someone needs to see if the old bus can even run anymore. 

Gonna take some work, but I think if we persevere we can all do this

 

[Warm Nose]

All of us ITT:
 

[Weather Will]

Side note, colleague out of Chicago says the snow storm forecast is a bust in their NW burbs.  NWS forecast was for 8-12 and they got a few inches with pavement just wet.

[Demeter]

5 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Side note, colleague out of Chicago says the snow storm forecast is a bust in their NW burbs.  NWS forecast was for 8-12 and they got a few inches with pavement just wet.

Isn’t the storm just pretty much starting there?  I don’t know if I’d call it a bust yet. 

[IronTy]

22 minutes ago, Warm Nose said:

All of us ITT:
 

Haha I was thinking inception when I read this.  

[CAPE]

14 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Side note, colleague out of Chicago says the snow storm forecast is a bust in their NW burbs.  NWS forecast was for 8-12 and they got a few inches with pavement just wet.

Snippet from NWS Chicago this morning-

As has been indicated repeatedly with this system, the marginal thermal profiles with surface temperatures at or above freezing mean that not only are high snowfall rates required, these must remain persistent for several hours for appreciable accumulations and resultant travel and infrastructure impacts. Even with the slight SE wobble, increasing easterly and northeasterly winds off the roughly 40 degree lake suggest temperatures will still crawl their way upwards across NE Illinois today. As a result, continue to suspect that raw model snowfall output (10:1, Kuchera, you name it) is spreading high snowfall areas across a much broader area than will be realized. In fact, it`s likely the snowfall gradient ultimately will be even tighter than we can show in our gridded forecast with any predictability. HRRR/RAP snow depth or variable-density snow depth output is likely a better proxy for impacts, and depicts an incredibly, razor sharp delineation in snow amounts, where snowfall rates are maximized for the longest period.

[NorthArlington101]

4 hours ago, katabatic said:

6z GFS is now showing a similar flavor to what the Euro showed at 0z for next Tuesday. This looks like a step in the right direction for areas east of the mountains.

I assumed the 6z GFS sucked based off this for some reason... 24hr+ snowstorm with cold temps? That's awesome.

Biggest 12z suite of our lives.

[NorthArlington101]

Also, I know there are more to the ENS than the snow maps, but the EPS mean is honking fairly hard for this range. Doesn't show up well on the median, but that's not shocking at range.

[psuhoffman]

38 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

Side note, colleague out of Chicago says the snow storm forecast is a bust in their NW burbs.  NWS forecast was for 8-12 and they got a few inches with pavement just wet.

 

33 minutes ago, Demeter said:

Isn’t the storm just pretty much starting there?  I don’t know if I’d call it a bust yet. 

Some places that get banding will do ok but honestly yesterday I was looking at the midwest (I actually look at shit other than our back yard, I know cray cray) and observed even they are suffering some of the thermal issues we do. Obviously not to the same extent but the boundary is killing them too!  In mid January with a 988 low taking theor ideal track, there is rain mixing at times along the lake fronts and surface temps in the mid 30s requiring heavy rates to accumulate. The snowfall results will be pretty pathetic across the region compared to what you would expect given the time of year, track, and intensity of the storm. 
 

I observed the same thing on my trip home from Vermont this weekend. At my friends house at 1400 feet there was ~16” with temps in the 20s. But I stopped in Bennington in the Valley Sunday evening and they didn’t have enough snow to cover the grass and it was 34 degrees!  They had 2” of slop. Same story the whole way down. When I hit an area that got death banded near Poughkeepsie there was a foot of mash potatoes but places in between without elevation even up in interior New England looked like some Deep South 2”  slush event. 
 

We are not the only ones having these issues lately.  Luckily the longer this general pattern lasts and the deeper into winter we get (SSTs cool some) the colder the default air mass will get so I’m NOT cancelling winter. The pattern flipped right around Xmas. And each successive press of cold has been colder. Eventually we will have a window with a workable airmass and then we have to score!  But winter is getting pushed back later and later which shortens our window and obviously since we would have less chances (single math) is gonna hurt our snowfall overall.  I don’t agree Winter is extending. If you look back 100 years of records we’ve had past periods that snowed a lot in March. March has been snowier in comparison to early winter so it seems great but in reality it’s not getting snowier than it was historically. What is happening is March climo is being affected way less than Dec/Jan because the waters have cooled by then, so it makes it seem like it’s getting snowier in comparison because it’s not getting less snowy like other months. I probably butchered explaining that. Sorry. 
 

This year I am banking on the fact that in a Nino with the juiced STJ and a weak polar vortex we just need a couple weeks to cooperate to go big!  We can absolutely dumped on quick if things line up in this kind of pattern. But in a year without a juiced up stj if all we get is a couple months to try to score all our snow it’s just not mathematically likely we get that much when other than ninos it typically takes 4 or 5 legit threats to score a big hit.  

[psuhoffman]

Thanks for posting that discussion @CAPE

[Solution Man]

9 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

 

Some places that get banding will do ok but honestly yesterday I was looking at the midwest (I actually look at shit other than our back yard, I know cray cray) and observed even they are suffering some of the thermal issues we do. Obviously not to the same extent but the boundary is killing them too!  In mid January with a 988 low taking theor ideal track, there is rain mixing at times along the lake fronts and surface temps in the mid 30s requiring heavy rates to accumulate. The snowfall results will be pretty pathetic across the region compared to what you would expect given the time of year, track, and intensity of the storm. 
 

I observed the same thing on my trip home from Vermont this weekend. At my friends house at 1400 feet there was ~16” with temps in the 20s. But I stopped in Bennington in the Valley Sunday evening and they didn’t have enough snow to cover the grass and it was 34 degrees!  They had 2” of slop. Same story the whole way down. When I hit an area that got death banded near Poughkeepsie there was a foot of mash potatoes but places in between without elevation even up in interior New England looked like some Deep South 2”  slush event. 
 

We are not the only ones having these issues lately.  Luckily the longer this general pattern lasts and the deeper into winter we get (SSTs cool some) the colder the default air mass will get so I’m NOT cancelling winter. The pattern flipped right around Xmas. And each successive press of cold has been colder. Eventually we will have a window with a workable airmass and then we have to score!  But winter is getting pushed back later and later which shortens our window and obviously since we would have less chances (single math) is gonna hurt our snowfall overall.  I don’t agree Winter is extending. If you look back 100 years of records we’ve had past periods that snowed a lot in March. March has been snowier in comparison to early winter so it seems great but in reality it’s not getting snowier than it was historically. What is happening is March climo is being affected way less than Dec/Jan because the waters have cooled by then, so it makes it seem like it’s getting snowier in comparison because it’s not getting less snowy like other months. I probably butchered explaining that. Sorry. 
 

This year I am banking on the fact that in a Nino with the juiced STJ and a weak polar vortex we just need a couple weeks to cooperate to go big!  We can absolutely dumped on quick if things line up in this kind of pattern. But in a year without a juiced up stj if all we get is a couple months to try to score all our snow it’s just not mathematically likely we get that much when other than ninos it typically takes 4 or 5 legit threats to score a big hit.  

Thanks, this sets the tone for a nice 12z run. We will like it

[katabatic]

20 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I assumed the 6z GFS sucked based off this for some reason... 24hr+ snowstorm with cold temps? That's awesome.

Biggest 12z suite of our lives.

Ha, this was a good news story! And yes, 12z will be telling - for 2 reasons (at least for me). Next week's (hopeful) storm for us and I'm leaving for Chicago Thursday. 0z had a historic blizzard in NE Illinois (as had countless runs in the days prior); 6z lurched south and east leaving Chicago with little more than light snow and plenty of wind. Cross your fingers.

[paulythegun]

Next weekend's cutter has been well modeled for a while. GFS remarkably consistent. I wonder if it's just easier to model inland storm systems? No messy coastal transfer/redevelopment? Or if there's something else about this setup that's easier for models to resolve? I suppose this just doesn't seem very complex. Just a vort orbiting around a well defined trough.

 

[WxUSAF]

I think we consider cutters well-modeled because we don’t usually give 2 shits if the track goes over Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago, or Minneapolis. It’s all (usually) the same outcome for us. The changes to the Chicago snow forecast I think shows that they are subject to the same wiggles that mean life and death to our snow totals.

[Maestrobjwa]

58 minutes ago, NorthArlington101 said:

I assumed the 6z GFS sucked based off this for some reason... 24hr+ snowstorm with cold temps? That's awesome.

Biggest 12z suite of our lives.

The way we've been going lately, most of the 12z suites have been real Nutcrackers...

[jayyy]

Some places that get banding will do ok but honestly yesterday I was looking at the midwest (I actually look at shit other than our back yard, I know cray cray) and observed even they are suffering some of the thermal issues we do. Obviously not to the same extent but the boundary is killing them too!  In mid January with a 988 low taking theor ideal track, there is rain mixing at times along the lake fronts and surface temps in the mid 30s requiring heavy rates to accumulate. The snowfall results will be pretty pathetic across the region compared to what you would expect given the time of year, track, and intensity of the storm. 
 
I observed the same thing on my trip home from Vermont this weekend. At my friends house at 1400 feet there was ~16” with temps in the 20s. But I stopped in Bennington in the Valley Sunday evening and they didn’t have enough snow to cover the grass and it was 34 degrees!  They had 2” of slop. Same story the whole way down. When I hit an area that got death banded near Poughkeepsie there was a foot of mash potatoes but places in between without elevation even up in interior New England looked like some Deep South 2”  slush event. 
 
We are not the only ones having these issues lately.  Luckily the longer this general pattern lasts and the deeper into winter we get (SSTs cool some) the colder the default air mass will get so I’m NOT cancelling winter. The pattern flipped right around Xmas. And each successive press of cold has been colder. Eventually we will have a window with a workable airmass and then we have to score!  But winter is getting pushed back later and later which shortens our window and obviously since we would have less chances (single math) is gonna hurt our snowfall overall.  I don’t agree Winter is extending. If you look back 100 years of records we’ve had past periods that snowed a lot in March. March has been snowier in comparison to early winter so it seems great but in reality it’s not getting snowier than it was historically. What is happening is March climo is being affected way less than Dec/Jan because the waters have cooled by then, so it makes it seem like it’s getting snowier in comparison because it’s not getting less snowy like other months. I probably butchered explaining that. Sorry. 
 
This year I am banking on the fact that in a Nino with the juiced STJ and a weak polar vortex we just need a couple weeks to cooperate to go big!  We can absolutely dumped on quick if things line up in this kind of pattern. But in a year without a juiced up stj if all we get is a couple months to try to score all our snow it’s just not mathematically likely we get that much when other than ninos it typically takes 4 or 5 legit threats to score a big hit.  

Definitely concerned about flooding in my parents neck of the woods. They saw that foot of mashed potatoes you mentioned in the Hudson valley. They’re currently snowing at 30 degrees on the frontend but it’ll be 40 and pouring rain later on. Gonna be uuuugly for some areas up that way.

[North Balti Zen]

14 minutes ago, WxUSAF said:

I think we consider cutters well-modeled because we don’t usually give 2 shits if the track goes over Pittsburgh, Cleveland, Detroit, Chicago, or Minneapolis. It’s all (usually) the same outcome for us. The changes to the Chicago snow forecast I think shows that they are subject to the same wiggles that mean life and death to our snow totals.

Growing up in southwestern and then central Ohio I will confirm for you that the same excruciating misses on the margins occurs for midwest cutters as it does for us. So many times in the mid-1980s forecast 6-10 inch snows for me just east of Columbus would end up two counties north. We just don't notice for the reasons you said.

 

As for whether the presence of cutters in the longer term is more stable, maybe? But there is a huge difference in a cutter at 7 days that is modeled through north dakota and at game time ended up in eastern Ohio - but we don't follow those swings that closely either

TL/DR - WxUSAF is right. 

[wxdude64]

8 hours ago, Deck Pic said:

congrats us.  Another week of modelizing.

Not sure I've seen a diamond on the models before like this, must be a 'sign' 

[Paleocene]

1 minute ago, North Balti Zen said:

Growing up in southwestern and then central Ohio I will confirm for you that the same excruciating misses on the margins occurs for midwest cutters as it does for us. So many times in the mid-80s forecast 6-10 inch snows for me just east of Columbus would end up two counties north. We just don't notice for the reasons you said.

 

As for whether the presence of cutters in the longer term is more stable, maybe? But there is a huge difference in a cutter at 7 days that is modeled through north dakota and at game time ended up in eastern Ohio - but we don't follow those swings that closely either

TL/DR - WxUSAF is right. 

Agreed wholeheartedly; we have enormous expectations for models in winter. We aren't sitting here in May and June sweating the position of a low +/- 100 miles off Ocean City MD. Or whether it's going to be 65 and rain or 61 and rain. Or whether we're getting 0.5" of liquid or 0.8" of liquid. Unfortunately for us, we sit in the error range a lot of the time in these setups. 

[LP08]

GFS more closely matching the 0Z GFS than 6z.

[konksw]

9 minutes ago, Paleocene said:

Agreed wholeheartedly; we have enormous expectations for models in winter. We aren't sitting here in May and June sweating the position of a low +/- 100 miles off Ocean City MD. Or whether it's going to be 65 and rain or 61 and rain. Or whether we're getting 0.5" of liquid or 0.8" of liquid. Unfortunately for us, we sit in the error range a lot of the time in these setups. 

You don’t need a model to tell you that 90% of the time the forecast will be “Highs in the upper 80s to 90s with a chance of afternoon storms. Some storms may be strong.”

[stormtracker]

12z GFS still wants nothing to do with the 16th

[SomeguyfromTakomaPark]

1 minute ago, stormtracker said:

12z GFS still wants nothing to do with the 16th

Weak and disorganized I'd prefer at this range to another wound up cutter though.  Room for improvement.