Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations

[cstrunk]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0210.html

Tornado watch up in Texas.

[Powerball]

DFW achieved a high of 91*F yesterday and 95*F today.

Today's high ties the record, and it's also the first 95*F+ day of the year.

[Powerball]

In addition to tying the record high, DFW also saw its earliest highest dewpoint ever observed with the dewpoint topping out at 78*F today.

Previous record was also 78*F on 5/13/1995.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

12Z HRRR moves a nasty looking cell right through DFW late afternoon, >4000 J/Kg MLCAPE and 50 knot shear.  I'm calling a hail storm watch.

[beavis1729]

13 hours ago, Powerball said:

In addition to tying the record high, DFW also saw its earliest highest dewpoint ever observed with the dewpoint topping out at 78*F today.

Previous record was also 78*F on 5/13/1995.

McAllen TX was 103/77/120 yesterday...that's absurd for any time of the year, but especially so in early May.

[cstrunk]

The DFW area still looks to be ground zero for the supercell/hail threat this afternoon. I think the Enhanced Risk is delineated too far to the north, once you get east of there. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets trimmed back south closer to I-20 in NE TX and N LA, as opposed to extending along I-30 in NE TX to Texarkana and southern Arkansas.

[Sydney Claridge]

37 minutes ago, cstrunk said:

The DFW area still looks to be ground zero for the supercell/hail threat this afternoon. I think the Enhanced Risk is delineated too far to the north, once you get east of there. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets trimmed back south closer to I-20 in NE TX and N LA, as opposed to extending along I-30 in NE TX to Texarkana and southern Arkansas.

There's definitely a significant temperature/moisture boundary (warm front?) over DFW right now. Upper 70s and 80s with 70s dewpoints to the south of DFW at the moment, with 60s and low 70s with dewpoints in the 40s north of DFW.

While hail and wind will be the biggest threat, I also want to be mindful of any possibilities for tornadoes when such a boundary is in place, as there is often localized enhancement of tornado parameters near/along these sort of boundaries.

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, cstrunk said:

The DFW area still looks to be ground zero for the supercell/hail threat this afternoon. I think the Enhanced Risk is delineated too far to the north, once you get east of there. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets trimmed back south closer to I-20 in NE TX and N LA, as opposed to extending along I-30 in NE TX to Texarkana and southern Arkansas.

The last few runs of the HRRR, which has the most bullish of all the Hi-Res models for DFW, seem pretty consistent with keeping the severe activity south of I-20 and west of I-35.

[radarman]

Haven't heard of plans for an FWD special sounding yet, but it would be fun to see one.  The 12z sounding was impressive.

[cstrunk]

1 hour ago, cstrunk said:

The DFW area still looks to be ground zero for the supercell/hail threat this afternoon. I think the Enhanced Risk is delineated too far to the north, once you get east of there. I wouldn't be surprised if it gets trimmed back south closer to I-20 in NE TX and N LA, as opposed to extending along I-30 in NE TX to Texarkana and southern Arkansas.

 

1 hour ago, Sydney Claridge said:

There's definitely a significant temperature/moisture boundary (warm front?) over DFW right now. Upper 70s and 80s with 70s dewpoints to the south of DFW at the moment, with 60s and low 70s with dewpoints in the 40s north of DFW.

While hail and wind will be the biggest threat, I also want to be mindful of any possibilities for tornadoes when such a boundary is in place, as there is often localized enhancement of tornado parameters near/along these sort of boundaries.

 

51 minutes ago, Powerball said:

The last few runs of the HRRR, which has the most bullish of all the Hi-Res models for DFW, seem pretty consistent with keeping the severe activity south of I-20 and west of I-35.

I agree. Looks like SPC disagreed with the Enhanced delineation in the area I mentioned... and even nudged it slightly more north. I wonder what they are seeing.

[Powerball]

1 minute ago, cstrunk said:

 

 

I agree. Looks like SPC disagreed with the Enhanced delineation in the area I mentioned... and even nudged it slightly more north. I wonder what they are seeing.

Will just have to keep an eye on the radar trends at this point.

A watch (Severe Thunderstorm) is incoming...

 

[Powerball]

That one cell moving into Jacksboro is currently warned for Golf Ball Size Hail.

[Powerball]

I think I know where they're going with this, but for now, they only issued a Severe T'Storm Watch for the northern 2 row of Texas Counties.

I'm thinking it's going to be a Tornado Watch for everyone else (we'll find out soon).

[radarman]

Seeing pics of tennis balls from the cell NW of the metroplex

[Powerball]

8 minutes ago, radarman said:

Seeing pics of tennis balls from the cell NW of the metroplex

And that's what the latest warning in Wise County calls for (Tennis Ball Size Hail).

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Hard to tell from the haze, but local (IAH, HOU, SGR) airports reporting cumulonimbus or thunder and there are a few cells around on radar.  I  Nor did HGX morning discussion) didn't think anything would develop locally with the cap in place (15Z RAP sounding for 18Z shows a convective temp of 103F), we'd be looking for storms from Central Texas..  IAH is 88/76.  8.7C/Km 700-500 mb lapse rate on the model sounding.

 

About North Texas, waiting to see when storms develop on the warm side of the boundary.  Which is past DFW proper.

[Powerball]

1 hour ago, Powerball said:

I think I know where they're going with this, but for now, they only issued a Severe T'Storm Watch for the northern 2 row of Texas Counties.

I'm thinking it's going to be a Tornado Watch for everyone else (we'll find out soon).

And there is it. Tornado Watch in effect until 9pm...

[radarman]

Here is the special sounding from north of the boundary.  

[Powerball]

1 minute ago, radarman said:

Here is the special sounding from north of the boundary.  

As usual, there's that cap...

The sounding actually looks less impressive than it did this morning.

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Near 70F dewpoints should be enough for a tornado or two in the Metroplex, even on the N side of the boundary although low level shear is near non-existent.  I'm guessing the cell E of Abilene is riding the boundary or just N of it.

[beavis1729]

5 hours ago, beavis1729 said:

McAllen TX was 103/77/120 yesterday...that's absurd for any time of the year, but especially so in early May.

And it's even worse today.

Brownsville is 102/80/124, and McAllen is 107/74/121...just unbearable. 

[Chargers09]

That’s just Texas weather lol 

[Chinook]

This storm that produced up to baseball sized hail and, more recently, golf ball sized hail.

[radarman]

It just hit the outflow boundary too.  Thinking if there is any tornado risk, which is slim right now, it might be a parallel to and south of US 67 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

The effective front is passing Waco, storms are developing.  Tornado warned storms in the Hill Country, radar indicated.  Would reach I-35 around sunset, waiting to see if the supercells grow upscale, meaning my part of Texas sees weather tonight.

[Stx_Thunder]

1 hour ago, Chinook said:

This storm that produced up to baseball sized hail and, more recently, golf ball sized hail.

 

Possible grapefruit hailer with that supercell that went just southwest of Fort Worth a little while ago.

- - -

Lots of hail reports with basically all kinds of diameter all around DFW area so far today.

 

 

2 hours ago, Chargers09 said:

That’s just Texas weather lol 

Exactly my thoughts when I saw that McAllen temp info post. Nothing unusual there with 100s by May. Even sometimes as early as March in the past.

Not to mention, even Kingsville was easily having that along with HI near 130 last June here around STX.

[Stx_Thunder]

Definitely not dropping the flooding tag (at least for another week or two, possibly not till June). Both GFS & Euro have been stepping up since early this week on rainfall totals for the eastern half with another meandering front involved, into next week.

Not surprised at all as in/out heavy rainfall & flood provoking MCS activity is typical for May just about every year nowadays. Especially coming out of a formidable EN winter and what’s already been going on still only being in the beginning of month.

ETX rainfall totals for the past 30 days must be either at or very near 30 inches in some spots (like Huntsville area) now in that > 20” white area.

 

[Ed, snow and hurricane fan]

Softball sized hail with a tornado warning for San Marcos.  Been to a few tailgates there, Edward graduated last year from Texas State.  No jumping in the river tonight...

[Chargers09]

Boo Texas state 

 

 

(I’m a UTSA alumni)

[Chinook]

23 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said:

 

Possible grapefruit hailer with that supercell that went just southwest of Fort Worth a little while ago.

- - -

Lots of hail reports with basically all kinds of diameter all around DFW area so far today.

 

 

Exactly my thoughts when I saw that McAllen temp info post. Nothing unusual there with 100s by May. Even sometimes as early as March in the past.

Not to mention, even Kingsville was easily having that along with HI near 130 last June here around STX.

I'd say the 4.0" - 4.5" hail is the largest I've seen on a report during most years. You can easily see why that type of cell was possible based on forecast soundings/ SPC maps for significant hail parameter. (4.5" hail would be a nightmare... In fact it was a nightmare. A long time ago, someone died in Fort Collins Colorado due to a 4" hailstone.)

Southern Texas had a heat index of about 120 yesterday and isolated locations in Mexico got over 110 measured temperature. Meanwhile my place here in Ohio was dreary and cold.  My old favorite place in Colorado, that is, Estes Park, got snow to 8000 ft as viewed by the national park cams.