Powerball Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 GEM has a massive cold bias. So I can say with confidence 30s aren't going to happen in DFW, especially with the extensive cloud cover expected Beyond that, I hate cold weather and I'm ready for Summer. So frankly, I'm dreading the temps over the next few days and personally have no interest in discussing it. For others, I suspect there's not much interest in discussing it because it's way too cold for severe weather (whatever thunderstorm activity there is will be elevated) yet still way too warm for wintry precipitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted April 18 Author Share Posted April 18 I think it has more to do with how late it is in the season (being right next to May now), so more people are not convinced that it would happen. Though it has before on climate history in the past 2 decades but even then, the cooling effects don’t last at all in this state when it does. March was dismally warm & humid for the most part (at least in the southern half), and it’s already been feeling a lot like summer with almost constant 70+ dew points in STX for some weeks now (save for just a few modest comfort-bringing fronts). So even though it doesn’t look like this weekend’s polar front is going to have enough gas to completely push off the whole TX coast, I’m really going to enjoy it as much as I possibly can as I should get down into the 50s for one night at least. After this, not seeing any other kind of comforting frontal airmass intrusions at all into the state on main models. Just total TX summer junk wx into early May with more 90 F temps showing up and growing HX. Away from any convective or MCS potential effects as we’ll be entering peak spring MCS month for the state in May. Everyone who’s not new to living in this state already knows what summer here is like Every year for literally about half of the entire year until October with 0 actual cold fronts through the state. Sometimes not until November here in STX. That just literally sucks every single year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted April 18 Share Posted April 18 Tor warned supercell heading towards the Lampasas area Tornado Warning TXC281-190000- /O.NEW.KFWD.TO.W.0005.240418T2319Z-240419T0000Z/ BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED Tornado Warning National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 619 PM CDT Thu Apr 18 2024 The National Weather Service in Fort Worth has issued a * Tornado Warning for... Southwestern Lampasas County in central Texas... * Until 700 PM CDT. * At 618 PM CDT, a severe thunderstorm capable of producing a tornado was located 20 miles northwest of Lampasas, moving southeast at 10 mph. HAZARD...Tornado and golf ball size hail. SOURCE...Radar indicated rotation. IMPACT...Flying debris will be dangerous to those caught without shelter. Mobile homes will be damaged or destroyed. Damage to roofs, windows, and vehicles will occur. Tree damage is likely. * This tornadic thunderstorm will remain over mainly rural areas of southwestern Lampasas County, including the following locations... Lometa and Nix. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... TAKE COVER NOW! Move to an interior room on the lowest floor of a sturdy building. Avoid windows. If you are outdoors, in a mobile home, or in a vehicle, move to the closest substantial shelter and protect yourself from flying debris. && LAT...LON 3125 9853 3134 9838 3117 9824 3109 9842 TIME...MOT...LOC 2318Z 330DEG 10KT 3127 9842 TORNADO...RADAR INDICATED MAX HAIL SIZE...1.75 IN $$ Dunn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 I will say, this is some of the fiercest (and loudest) thunder & lightning I've seen in a long time for elevated t'storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 20 Share Posted April 20 Been consistent for days, heavy rain N & W of Houston, NWS HGX has issued a Flood Watch for the counties North and West of Houston, including Montgomery County. HRRR is especially enthusiastic. What has also been consistent, first on the globals, and now the mesos, a very sharp cutoff between heavy rain and much lighter rain. Edit to Add: My son flying from DFW this evening and American has been delaying his flight. WPC has a meso rainfall discussion for pretty much the entire stretch of I-20. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted April 20 Author Share Posted April 20 5 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Been consistent for days, heavy rain N & W of Houston, NWS HGX has issued a Flood Watch for the counties North and West of Houston, including Montgomery County. HRRR is especially enthusiastic. What has also been consistent, first on the globals, and now the mesos, a very sharp cutoff between heavy rain and much lighter rain. Edit to Add: My son flying from DFW this evening and American has been delaying his flight. WPC has a meso rainfall discussion for pretty much the entire stretch of I-20. Both GFS & Euro last night forecasting generally 5 in. area totals for this weekend’s system/polar front or large linear MCS activity tonight between Dallas & Houston region. Doesn’t look like enough for sig flooding even though WPC has large (supposedly higher-end threat) excessive rainfall slight risk in D1 outlook/discussion, and despite parts of East TX seeing a good amount of rainfall in recent weeks. *** Should also add, HRRR not the most reliable as it always tends to overdo its convective depictions. 8 hours ago, Powerball said: I will say, this is some of the fiercest (and loudest) thunder & lightning I've seen in a long time for elevated t'storms. Which is why stronger updrafts and severe can never actually be ruled out in elevated storms with enough DL/effective shear (especially nowadays). 12z observed DFW sounding this morning was also showing high elevated CAPE & LI just under 800 Mb layer. Even though ML lapse rates a bit meager (just about 7). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted April 20 Author Share Posted April 20 Just as I suspected on my first post from Thursday, 40s now in DFW by this evening with all the convective activity & resulting evaporative cooling effects going on behind the polar front today. Models not doing the best on convective placement. But GFS & 12z HRRR run this morning seem to have the ‘best’ handle on storms going on in the state today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 21 Share Posted April 21 There's a supercell on the Mexican foothills this evening with higher CAPE values. It's always interesting to see isolated cells with the S Texas radars if they are kind of close. For this cell, it's distant. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 Now that the crap is behind us, the next 2 weeks are looking pretty solid. Not necessarily a blow torch, but definitely warm with temps in the 70s/80s. The projected blocking over the Atlantic / Greenland is a little concerning, with respect to the risk of an occasional backdoor "polar" front, but the -PNA should help to keep much of its influence to the NE of Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted April 22 Share Posted April 22 We'll probably start a severe weather thread for the Thu/Fri time period. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted April 25 Author Share Posted April 25 Lots of 40s / lower 50s across the state Monday morning. Very comfortable 70 degree high & 50s DP down here (which are not common by this time of year), and had elevated storms moving around me both Sunday (with a good amount of small hail droppers, interestingly), and Monday mornings. Which was a good cherry on top. Last hurrah frontal airmass of spring outside was good while it “lasted”, very early this week. That looks to be about it for TX comfort season until later fall - Onto MCS month, coming up. On 4/20/2024 at 8:59 PM, Chinook said: There's a supercell on the Mexican foothills this evening with higher CAPE values. It's always interesting to see isolated cells with the S Texas radars if they are kind of close. For this cell, it's distant. That convective/supercell phenomena out there west/southwest of Laredo over the open Mexican terrain east of the Sierra mountains is MUCH more common during the Spring months, every year than you might be thinking. The orographic lift from those mountains further west is also what encourages the development out there over the flat terrain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted April 26 Author Share Posted April 26 Must be a fairly strong shortwave coming into the state today. Despite pretty strong BL capping and warm 700Mb temps on sounding data down here early this morning, had an elevated storm still manage to get going nearby tapping into >8 ML lapse rates with a good amount of CGs (though thin & weak on lightning analysis), within the past hour or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted April 26 Author Share Posted April 26 High water rescues were going on in Kaufman, in the NETX MCS this afternoon. DFW radar estimating a southwest-northeast strip of significant rainfall. Embedded 7-inch storm totals in that area southeast of Dallas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted April 28 Share Posted April 28 Unfortunately I try to sleep at 1 am, but 12Z HRRR finally gets thunderstorms in Houston, with near 2500 J/Kg MLCape (after midnight!) and 40 knots effective shear. Enhanced Severe on 1300 SWODY1 gets as close to Houston as San Jacinto County. @Stx_Thunderhas access to t-storm probability maps. This begins the time of year when the Corpus Christi 12Z sounding has 4500 J/Kg surface cape but a 99F convective T. Amazing values of CAPE that will not be tapped by storms. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted April 29 Author Share Posted April 29 15 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Unfortunately I try to sleep at 1 am, but 12Z HRRR finally gets thunderstorms in Houston, with near 2500 J/Kg MLCape (after midnight!) and 40 knots effective shear. Enhanced Severe on 1300 SWODY1 gets as close to Houston as San Jacinto County. @Stx_Thunderhas access to t-storm probability maps. This begins the time of year when the Corpus Christi 12Z sounding has 4500 J/Kg surface cape but a 99F convective T. Amazing values of CAPE that will not be tapped by storms. I think you’re gonna have more overnight wake ups in May now that we’re getting into peak MCS month (and especially coming out of a fairly strong EN winter). They tend to happen (and peak in intensity) more often during night. Anyone can see those multi-global model consensus thunder probability maps (and most other maps/model data on there) completely free & easily on https://weather.us I just post those on here to be informative CRP 0z observed sounding this evening showing pretty favorable convective environment over STX (more typical now getting into May). Just of course, lacking the necessary lift off to the north/east and doesn’t look like anything till sometime tomorrow/Tuesday. That shouldn’t be a problem in Houston area tonight (but could be on west end of it). Should be a pretty good thunder show there overnight as that MCS in East TX is taking its time propagating south this evening (could be higher end flood threat that region next several hours). WPC highlighting flooding likely in MCD for that region this evening. Also seeing a really good amount of positive CGs just like in the QLCS that moved through northern half of state last night. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted April 29 Author Share Posted April 29 Seeing reports of numerous road closures and water over roads in Madisonville and Huntsville areas from that persistent, slow-moving and pretty potent MCS (seeing pretty cold cloud tops near -80 C not far northeast of Houston area on satellite). Rainfall totals at or over 10 inches in some spots around that part of East TX also. A well-defined outflow should crawl into Houston within the next few hours and storms may persist a good part of this morning around there as seeing the LLJ maintaining at least 30 knots (seeing 35 now on Houston VWP radar still generally southerly in the lower levels). - - - - -https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0200&yr=2024 - - - ***** Later this week: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted May 2 Author Share Posted May 2 Multiple reports early this morning of impassable roads from another 8 - 10 inches in waterlogged Huntsville area, from the MCS activity going on in East TX since early yesterday evening (Wednesday). https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0208&yr=2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 I've never seen a storm with such high DBZ values not get Severe warned. Quite odd! Must be just small hail. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 2 Share Posted May 2 It rained a lot at work near DWH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted May 3 Author Share Posted May 3 Definitely looks like more flooding in East TX early this morning. Especially in Huntsville area and/or just north/east of Houston area once again with that next MCC upstream moving fairly slow southeast (just south of DFW area). But intensity could be limited overall this time with all of last night’s activity causing some stability in that part of the state. Though FFGs (flash flood guidance values) are already very low around Huntsville area and pretty much all around there too, so it won’t take much more rain at all now. WPC maintaining Moderate risk in Houston area, but 850mb flow is now apparently (but modestly) deep out of the southwest on Houston VWP radar so that’s probably going to limit convective intensity a good amount with new development more likely further east unless an MCV comes right next to Houston. Tonight’s 0z ARW run has a fairly good handle on the ongoing thunder system in north-central part of state moving through most if not all of SETX in some organized form later this morning (some remnant boundaries from yesterdays activity in the area to work with also around there). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted May 3 Author Share Posted May 3 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=213&yr=2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted May 3 Author Share Posted May 3 East Tex = SOAKED (and still not done yet) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 I'm not sure whether 'Future Cast' is a private model, but Thursday night, both KPRC and KHOU used it, and it predicted the heavy rain Friday afternoon, not early morning Friday. Getting to work in Tomball was hairy. Nowhere near as much rain fell in Spring (I'm in the Spring ISD with a Houston mailing address). The heavy rain fell in almost the same places. HRRR 12Z is more rain just E of the worst impacted areas, and a lot of it, other models are drier. River flood statements have dates of comparable floods, late August/early September 2017 (Hurricane Harvey) and October 1994 (flooding from remnants of Pacific Hurricane Rosa) are showing up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted May 4 Share Posted May 4 This is going to be one hell of a muggy Summer... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted May 4 Author Share Posted May 4 Looks like solid MCS activity across most of the state tonight - Sunday with some pretty strong ML shortwave energy coming in. Already seeing some robust clustering going on right now with initial thunder development over Panhandle region. WPC going with another moderate risk area right around Houston through tomorrow (they’ll likely have to maintain that). I reckon 30-day rainfall totals just northeast of there in East TX will be 30 inches (potentially even higher looking at Sunday’s rainfall/flood parameters), by Tuesday morning TexMesonet update. Both Euro & GFS showing fairly substantial at or near 2” PW pooling (which can definitely happen by May) going on into Sunday, generally between San Antonio - Houston area (there looks to be a stalled front set up in this region), and south to the coast. - The Euro has an extreme weather index value between 0.1 - 0.99 for 24-hour rainfall, and it’s been verifying pretty well with near 0.7 values & higher, since about 2 weeks ago now of the flood-producing MCSs in East TX. - - - - - 8 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: I'm not sure whether 'Future Cast' is a private model, but Thursday night, both KPRC and KHOU used it, and it predicted the heavy rain Friday afternoon, not early morning Friday. Getting to work in Tomball was hairy. Nowhere near as much rain fell in Spring (I'm in the Spring ISD with a Houston mailing address). The heavy rain fell in almost the same places. HRRR 12Z is more rain just E of the worst impacted areas, and a lot of it, other models are drier. River flood statements have dates of comparable floods, late August/early September 2017 (Hurricane Harvey) and October 1994 (flooding from remnants of Pacific Hurricane Rosa) are showing up. It’s looking more likely that such records north of Houston are going to be broken after tomorrow’s activity. Which looks to be pretty heavy seeing all the 500mb shortwave energy moving through the state tonight - Sunday with even deeper moisture interaction because of a stalled front hanging around your area. Which definitely provides focus for heavier activity and training cells. Seeing it’ll all be through Sunday, you should be able to enjoy all the action going on before the new work week starts 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted May 5 Author Share Posted May 5 Tons of positive CGs going on: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted May 5 Author Share Posted May 5 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/metwatch/metwatch_mpd_multi.php?md=0228&yr=2024 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted May 5 Share Posted May 5 Rain has stopped and the clouds are breaking. Almost full sun in Houston area. I think we get by with only scattered storms the rest of today. Mid week, GFS shows >100F temps along the river where the 10% hatched hail is today. Summer may start a couple of weeks before meteorological summer per GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted May 5 Author Share Posted May 5 Heard one very good rumble when some cells popped up nearby a couple hours ago (a good sign for me today especially having missed out on all the convective energy & action up north during this past week). Watching the cells this afternoon southwest of San Antonio that are currently gathering along the boundary that can be seen fairly well now with all the activity ongoing from Del Rio - Houston. https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0186.html https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md0639.html Given these early May afternoon convective scenarios down around here in the past, a few discrete, usually large HP supercells tend to erupt along such outflow fronts and move southeast all the way to the coastal bend before dissipating when they move off the coast. HRRR was also really hinting at that on yesterday evening 0z run. 12z ARW-2 run this morning seems to have a pretty good handle on what’s going on today. Though I wouldn’t be surprised if one or two supercells manage to get down into deep STX also. 3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Rain has stopped and the clouds are breaking. Almost full sun in Houston area. I think we get by with only scattered storms the rest of today. Second round moving into Houston now. Definitely would not say things are done around there (possibly more organized 3rd or even 4th round). At least until this evening as there’s definitely a boundary hanging around there and another shortwave (causing the new storms southwest of San Antonio) that will be approaching SETX later this afternoon. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted May 7 Author Share Posted May 7 Didn’t see or hear much where I was Sunday afternoon - evening except for 2 decent +CGs nearby outside of all the cells that day. Though I did manage to capture some photo-worthy, near sunset storm clouds off to the south/east as the trailing MCV that caused the storms over the Rio Grande plains & brush country (south of San Antonio), went southeast into deep STX with a last gasp of cells before everything just fell apart at nightfall. Apparently was mainly day heating-sustained, but did see an EML around 850mb on Brownsville 0z sounding that evening. Took the photos just after 8 pm. * Saw several CG jumpers (clear air strikes from upper body) about a minute apart from each other on that strongest, rightmost/southernmost cell with the mushroom anvil & overshooting top. Didn’t stay mature like that for long though, and I didn’t even have to look at the radar at all while I was watching it outside with the last of daylight to know it was already having trouble maintaining itself. Both the overshooting top & mushroom anvil flanked out pretty quick after I took that photo. No more than 20 minutes at most. - - - Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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