Stx_Thunder Posted January 13 Author Share Posted January 13 With respect to temps, latest 12Z NAM-Hires this morning (covering Monday now) is not looking impressive with the incoming cold airmass. I would even say by most means. Also showing actual temps getting down to around freezing (32 F) near the coast early Monday (so freezing drizzle/rain potential still there as well), but NTX isn't looking too cold either. And even that model shows some substantial warming there too, back closer to the freezing mark Monday afternoon. At this point, it's looking more like a very chilly airmass for TX, rather than an actual cold/Arctic one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DFWWeather Posted January 13 Share Posted January 13 35 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said: With respect to temps, latest 12Z NAM-Hires this morning (covering Monday now) is not looking impressive with the incoming cold airmass. I would even say by most means. Still showing actual temps getting down to around freezing (32 F) near the coast early Monday (so freezing drizzle/rain potential still there as well), but even NTX isn't looking too cold either. And even that model shows some substantial warming there too, back closer to the freezing mark Monday afternoon. At this point, it's looking more like a very chilly airmass for TX, rather than an actual cold/Arctic one. The 12z NAM is showing a high of 22°F for Monday and a low of 11°F for DFW for Tuesday morning. Pretty Arctic I'd say, which is the source region of the airmass. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 During most of the event my area along I-20 in East Texas will have a classic dendritic growth zone at around 500mb but a large dry and warm zone centered on 700mb then saturation but warm at 850mb with temps sharply falling from 850mb to the surface with full saturation. So low and warm cloud deck and precip freezing as it falls equals freezing drizzle when rates are low and sleet when rates are higher. Some snow as the cloud deck cools towards tomorrow morning. QPF here seems between 0.15-0.35" which should be around 1" of mixed accumulation. Precip starts late morning tomorrow and lasts until midday Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXHawk88 Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Not to get too ahead of ourselves but early next week has been looking interesting on GFS & Euro for a couple days. Finally the GFS & Canadian are showing winter precip, it has been showing cold rain with temps in the low 30’s. Not going to go too far off into the weeds because we are still 190~ hours out and a ton will change. The pattern looks pretty favorable to what would normally give us our best shot at winter weather. We don’t have a crazy warm up before the next cold front comes through next Friday - Saturday Just happy to have stuff to watch over the next 10 days. Good luck to everyone tomorrow. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 We have been getting flurries and light freezing rain since about 8am. Roads getting slick already. Temp 16F. So far a glaze of ice and dusting of snow. Much more to come over next 24 to 36 hours. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 14 Share Posted January 14 Winter Storm Warnings have been expanded south in East Texas down to Jacksonville, Nacogdoches and Center: Winter Storm Warning URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE National Weather Service Shreveport LA 1210 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 LAZ010>013-TXZ149>153-151200- /O.UPG.KSHV.WW.Y.0001.000000T0000Z-240116T0000Z/ /O.EXA.KSHV.WS.W.0001.000000T0000Z-240116T0000Z/ De Soto-Red River-Bienville-Jackson-Cherokee-Rusk-Panola- Nacogdoches-Shelby- Including the cities of Mansfield, Stonewall, Logansport, Coushatta, Martin, Arcadia, Ringgold, Gibsland, Jonesboro, Jacksonville, Rusk, Henderson, Carthage, Nacogdoches, and Center 1210 PM CST Sun Jan 14 2024 ...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 6 PM CST MONDAY... * WHAT...Heavy mixed precipitation. Snow accumulations of less than one inch, sleet accumulations of around 1/3 of an inch and ice accumulations of one tenth to one quarter of an inch. * WHERE...Portions of north central and northwest Louisiana and east Texas. * WHEN...Until 6 PM CST Monday. * IMPACTS...Plan on slippery road conditions. The hazardous conditions could impact the morning or evening commute. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... If you must travel, keep an extra flashlight, food, and water in your vehicle in case of an emergency. The latest road conditions for the state you are calling from can be obtained by calling 5 1 1. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Driving down from DFW, about 1 pm near Alma the grassy surfaces alongside I-45 were white with sleet. No precip, down toward Corsicana, light sleet or snow flurries, not sticking to anything. Big rise in temp, about 15 degrees in maybe 30 miles around Huntsville. 18F on Toyota thermometer in DFW, 47F Spring area. No idea why Houston metro is in a WWA. A trace of precip over many hours w/ marginal temps, I guess an abundance of caution. I can see that well NW of metro Houston. Interestingly, freezing precip gets very near the coast well S of Houston, but not the Houston metro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 A few flurries and mix trickling down in south Lewisville area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 VWP on EWX/HGX/CRP radars already showing pretty strong overrunning WAA around 30 kts @ 5 Kft now that the initial shallow arctic surge is pushing through the coastal region. So looks like freezing drizzle/rain will be a major issue on roads overnight/tomorrow morning around the mid-upper coastal region (already seeing echos starting to show up). Even in Houston it's looking likely, as it's already very close to the freezing mark and wouldn't take much evaporative cooling from precip to reach or drop below 32 F there either (aside from continued CAA and rising pressure on breezy north flow). 850Mb temps not really warm also. San Antonio has been reporting freezing drizzle for a while now this evening. I'm sure some highways are icing over there already. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Getting a nice dusting near DFW airport 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vwgrrc Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 On 1/13/2024 at 11:13 PM, TXHawk88 said: Not to get too ahead of ourselves but early next week has been looking interesting on GFS & Euro for a couple days. Finally the GFS & Canadian are showing winter precip, it has been showing cold rain with temps in the low 30’s. Not going to go too far off into the weeds because we are still 190~ hours out and a ton will change. The pattern looks pretty favorable to what would normally give us our best shot at winter weather. We don’t have a crazy warm up before the next cold front comes through next Friday - Saturday Just happy to have stuff to watch over the next 10 days. Good luck to everyone tomorrow. Speaking of which, I don't think I ever seen such a huge divergence between GFS and CMC like this for the next Monday. I literally laughed out loud Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TXHawk88 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Surprise lake effect band, produced a good dusting in a short time. I’ll take it, was not expecting that tonight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 This is the 2nd time in 4 winters living in DFW that Lake-Effect Snow has occurred (it also happened in December 2022). Crazy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Daytime temp at DFW never got above 16*F yesterday, which would have tied the record minimum high if not for the midnight high of 21*F Also, DFW has so far tied the record low of 11*F for today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gwlee7 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Certainly more than expected over here. Streets covered, puppies happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 'Been seeing a number of collision, stalled vehicle, and icy condition reports in San Antonio, on TXDOT since around midnight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Less than a half inch of freezing drizzle, sleet, and snow in Longview. Ground mostly white but not completely. Roads are iced over and will get worse as traffic drives on it. Not forecast to get above freezing until Wednesday. Should see some melting tomorrow with a high of 30 degrees and some sun. Roads will be hazardous through Wednesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 In Lindale got around 1/4" of mainly sleet. In between sleet showers have had constant flurries since yesterday morning. never got above 18F yesterday during the day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cheese007 Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Per WFAA DFW mamaged 1.3 inches for the event, which is roughly the seasonal average. Not bad at all for a lake effect event here! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Liquid rain halfway between IAH and DWH. 34F at airport, temp and DP are falling. If we get ice beyond a trace of freezing drizzle, I will have been wrong based on trusting models. Edit: IAH is now 28F Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 The switch from rain to sleet was pretty fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 We are now at over 24 hours of continuous light snow. Only 1/4 to 1/2 inch accumulations so far here though. Did just have a heavier burst. The snow is falling from below the radar beam over here in our semi radar hole between FTW and SHV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 Seeing icy road condition and vehicle collision (likely icing related) reports in Houston (around metro too) now on TXDOT site. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 Very light drizzle, water on the sidewalks is water, but building up on plants and cars in Houston. Klein and Tomball ISD, among others, have cancelled school. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 15 Author Share Posted January 15 20 minutes ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Very light drizzle, water on the sidewalks is water, but building up on plants and cars in Houston. Klein and Tomball ISD, among others, have cancelled school. I mean.. I kinda told you about. Even if it's "just" (freezing) drizzle. Don't forget the highways there too in Crush City 5 hours ago, cstrunk said: Less than a half inch of freezing drizzle, sleet, and snow in Longview. Ground mostly white but not completely. Roads are iced over and will get worse as traffic drives on it. Not forecast to get above freezing until Wednesday. Should see some melting tomorrow with a high of 30 degrees and some sun. Roads will be hazardous through Wednesday. Nice to know you're getting the whole winter precip platter, and not just (media overemphasized) snow. Only thing you were missing, was graupel. I would absolutely love to see a sleet storm again down here just like in the crazy Feb 2021 chill. But heavier, or especially, thunder sleet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 I somehow doubt the Canadian (it shows a big DFW ice storm), but all the globals like heavy precip next Monday-Tuesday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 15 Share Posted January 15 NWS with the huge adjustment to afternoon temps here from 25 to 17F. We are going to go over 50 hours consecutive without temps >20F. Today will set the low max for the date which was 33, temp reached 19 early this morning before falling into mid teens for the afternoon. Today will be just the 4th Jan day ever on record in Tyler with a sub 20 high. Tomorrow has a good chance for the record low of 15 with a forecast of 12. Tomorrow has a shot at the record low max of 26 with forecast of 26. If the next front has can take better aim straight down the Plains the Sat record low max of 27 is reachable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted January 16 Author Share Posted January 16 Sucks having to run 2 heaters just to keep warm enough inside with this reinforced airmass as the CAA north wind picked up again outside last night. Though am glad it actually cleared out now around the coast as it should definitely push above freezing to around 40 F today (maybe even 60 by tomorrow as the arctic high starts to move away). --- Since it'll likely be much warmer next week (compared to this week), multi-global model output already showing some maxed out thunder probabilities here on the coast with more steep mid-level LRs at times in the state and pretty strong DL shear once again (up to 70 - 80 kts) also on both Euro & GFS, Monday - Wednesday (ahead of next week's incoming trough out west). SPC also already hinting at severe potential for southern plains next week in D4-8 outlook discussion today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aggiegeog Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 Looks like Tyler ended up down to 13F this morning. My house got down to 11F in Lindale. Tyler is going to end up with 54 hours at 20 or below and by tomorrow Tyler will be around 95 hours below freezing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted January 16 Share Posted January 16 2 hours ago, Stx_Thunder said: Sucks having to run 2 heaters just to keep warm enough inside with this reinforced airmass as the CAA north wind picked up again outside last night. Though am glad it actually cleared out now around the coast as it should definitely push above freezing to around 40 F today (maybe even 60 by tomorrow as the arctic high starts to move away). --- Since it'll likely be much warmer next week (compared to this week), multi-global model output already showing some maxed out thunder probabilities here on the coast with more steep mid-level LRs at times in the state and pretty strong DL shear once again (up to 70 - 80 kts) also on both Euro & GFS, Monday - Wednesday (ahead of next week's incoming trough out west). SPC also already hinting at severe potential for southern plains next week in D4-8 outlook discussion today. Severe is possible, but the 2 systems early week have 5 inch rain bullseyes on both the GFS and CMC. GFS suggests CAPE is low with a nearly saturated profile. 1.6 inch PW. Of course, 6 days out, the warm sector not quite getting beyond the coast can change. On another note, 19F this morning for a min at IAH breaks the daily record of 22F from 1972. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now