Stx_Thunder Posted June 17 Author Share Posted June 17 WPC maintaining Moderate risk area in both latest Day 2 & 3 ERO outlooks today over mid-coastal region, but still seems unjustifiable in D2 period over SETX. D3 period reasoning is much more justifiable. Especially with the still projected to be about 3 in. PW area moving onshore by then. - CRP office has now issued flood watch in afternoon update. - - - GFS still going unrealistic with 25” bullseye accumulation total further inland in latest 12z run today. Euro has trended a bit lower (was just above 10” on coast) which indicates slightly better chance TC development happening over western Gulf but definitely still supports abnormally high or very heavy rainfall either way this week with an almost full 1.00 value now on 24hr precip extreme wx index. - Though, most of the European models do also support 10+ in. rainfall over lower-middle coast. - It has been fairly dry in Brownsville area or lower coast, but not that dry. Seeing how these deep tropical convective influences (rain rates very easily over 3”/hr) have happened in past 2 decades in June, it can sometimes very easily go from an existing drought to deluge in just a matter of a day or two (with enough training/banding/convective organization). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 17 Share Posted June 17 39 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said: WPC maintaining Moderate risk area in both latest Day 2 & 3 outlooks today over mid-coastal region, but still seems unjustifiable in D2 period over SETX. D3 reasoning is much more justifiable. - CRP office has now issued flood watch in afternoon update. - - - GFS still going unrealistic with 25” bullseye accumulation total further inland in latest 12z run today. Euro has trended a bit lower which indicates slightly better chance TC development happening over western Gulf (but definitely still supports abnormally high or very heavy rainfall/flood risk either way this week with an almost full 1.00 value now on 24hr precip extreme wx index). - Though, most of the European models do also support 10+ in. rainfall over lower-middle coast. - It has been fairly dry in Brownsville area or lower coast, but not that dry. Seeing how these deep tropical convective influences (rain rates very easily over 3”/hr) have happened in past 2 decades in June, it can sometimes very easily go from an existing drought to deluge in just a matter of a day or two, with enough training/banding. I think I recently read Falcon is at an all time low level. Euro rain is less drought relief ( ~2 inches) for San Antonio and Austin than they'd want, although I suppose not flooding is a benefit. ICON and Euro both really enhance rain right at the coast, I'm guessing they handle coastal convergence better. NWS has harris County in a flood watch and shows 4-6 inches, which I suspect is about double what will actually fall near Houston Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jebman Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 On 6/16/2024 at 1:18 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: @Stx_Thunder Heaviest rain away from the immediate coast is shifting S on the models towards CRP. San Antonio and Austin are in level 2/level 3 drought, the rain is a good thing for them. IF we could get the rain. I'd love to see 2-5 inches tomorrow here in Buda BUT models are shifting the heavy stuff south. Nina summer/autumn does not look good for us, much drier, hotter in Nina. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 Less than a quarter inch at Bush. Dripping water from a very bright sky. OTOH, waterspouts quite close to the beach in Galveston. https://x.com/JordanHallWX/status/1803465736712511510 Tornado warnings off and on, some very close to Corpus Christi. Watch possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 Radars from BRO and CRP look nice. IMBY. won't be much rain, probably under half an inch storm total, but today is a day the AC will run a lot less than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted June 19 Author Share Posted June 19 Been raining pretty hard here for most, if not all this morning, but haven’t heard any thunder around me even though seeing some thunder cells moving around - west of Rockport in the last hour or so. But seeing a new, deeper convective band getting its act together just offshore of the coastal bend right now. Wind has died off despite a 30 - 35 kt flow just off the surface on BRO & CRP vwp radar. And mostly easterly, unidirectional now as well. Up to 40 kts @ H5. It was actually windy last night before TC 1 was named Alberto earlier today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted June 19 Author Share Posted June 19 1 hour ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: but today is a day the AC will run a lot less than usual. That’s literally one of the very best things when these convective tropical events happen this time of year. Last week was pretty hot (though normal STX summer heat/humidity) around here also. So I’m getting a good A/C break today, indeed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 6 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said: Been raining pretty hard here for most, if not all this morning, but haven’t heard any thunder around me even though seeing some thunder cells moving around - west of Rockport in the last hour or so. But seeing a new, deeper convective band getting its act together just offshore of the coastal bend right now. Wind has died off despite a 30 - 35 kt flow just off the surface on BRO & CRP vwp radar. And mostly easterly, unidirectional now as well. Up to 40 kts @ H5. It was actually windy last night before TC 1 was named Alberto earlier today. Maybe it is tightening up as it *very* slowly organizes. I've caught a few heavier showers last hour in the very N part of the N-most band. Maybe I'll do better than half an inch. Maybe I won't. 3km NAM shows very bandy rainfall, with >4 inch stripes N and S of Corpus Christi, but far less from CRP. Areas under an inch. I assume NAM would be close this close to landfall. Those bands shift a smidge and CRP could see 4 or 8 inches of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted June 19 Author Share Posted June 19 2 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Maybe it is tightening up as it *very* slowly organizes. Likely so, which explains why there isn’t too much going on east, offshore right now. I’m even seeing some areas of ‘clear sky’ on vis satellite east of Brownsville. But also, seeing more deep convection starting to wrap around Alberto further southeast. The center of circulation is pretty evident on daytime satellite right now in the SW Gulf. I’m waiting to get on the ‘feeder side’ as there’s usually more persistent deep convection & thunder activity (obviously very high(est) rain rates) on the Eastern periphery of the circulation. All the very deep moist DL inflow coming from southeastern Gulf & Caribbean. ML lapse rates are typically more elevated in that region with these tropical systems (6 - 7 range). Can see 2 fairly notable feeder bands offshore to the east, with one starting to train into SETX. It should start to fill in again offshore in the next couple hours (but especially this evening). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 19 Share Posted June 19 16 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said: Likely so, which explains why there isn’t too much going on east, offshore right now. I’m even seeing some areas of ‘clear sky’ on vis satellite east of Brownsville. But also, seeing more deep convection starting to wrap around Alberto further southeast. The center of circulation is pretty evident on daytime satellite right now in the SW Gulf. I’m waiting to get on the ‘feeder side’ as there’s usually more persistent deep convection & thunder activity (obviously very high(est) rain rates) on the Eastern periphery of the circulation. ML lapse rates are typically more elevated in that region with these tropical systems (6 - 7 range). Can see 2 fairly notable feeder bands offshore to the east, with one starting to train into SETX. It should start to fill in again offshore in the next couple hours (but especially this evening). I'm at the extreme edge of the N-most feeder band. The rainfall gradient in the Houston area will be impressive. After the two heavy but brief showers around 2 pm just sprinkles. I was just out, I can see the edge of the heavy rain to the S, and it is close. Small patches of clearing with hazy blue sky show more cumulus buildups to the E, we may get a few more brief showers but I'd go a little under half an inch storm total on an over/under betting line. Hobby, I'd go the under, Galveston is already over an inch and a half, it should get to 2 inches. CRP is 2.3, BRO is similar, a hair less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 PW is now just under 3 in. on Corpus 0z obs upper-air sounding this evening (models had insisted 3 since the past week). 2.8 in. on Brownsville sounding. - VWP, on Corpus radar showing 40 kts easterly (tilting southeasterly ML) flow now this evening. But getting next to 50 kts now around 5 Kft on Brownsville radar. Wind has picked up again here on the ground also and been getting somewhat more sustained TS storm force winds in the bands moving ashore a few hours ago before dark. CAPE has picked up, as well as Effective & BRN shear values have sig picked up into supercell range now (both about 40). Tropical supercells are usually only transient with very brief & localized spin-ups (and obviously no hail due to very high FZL in these fully tropical environments). But SPC of course, has posted a tornado watch until 7 am tomorrow: https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/watch/ww0437.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 Looks like potentially several consecutive days of 100*F+ temps are looming for DFW next week, starting as early as this upcoming. Sunday. For perspective, the first 100*F+ day last year wasn't observed until 6/26 (which ended up with 55 days total). 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted June 20 Author Share Posted June 20 Even though Alberto is pretty much done, still getting TS force gusts around here this afternoon. Deep convective inflow feeder bands this morning were still quite heavy at times also (even though PW has sig dropped from yesterday evening). Definitely over 3”/hr rates, but could’ve easily been 4”/hr +. Rockport, has come in with right around 10 in. rainfall in that area. But not sure if that’s the entire total from TS Alberto this week on the storm report posted today. Especially this morning’s deep convective activity over the coastal bend region. - Still does not look like it’s going to dry out with another entity in the SW Gulf this weekend/early next week. So the flooding potential will still be in place around here. Especially with the low FFGs brought by TS Alberto now. Even through next weekend (end of June), both Euro & GFS still holding onto aoa 2” PWs at times over the Eastern half of the state (even in NTX). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 20 Share Posted June 20 28 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said: Even though Alberto is pretty much done, still getting TS force gusts around here this afternoon. Deep convective inflow feeder bands this morning were still quite heavy at times also (even though PW has sig dropped from yesterday evening). Definitely over 3”/hr rates, but could’ve easily been 4”/hr +. Rockport, has come in with right around 10 in. rainfall in that area. But not sure if that’s the entire total from TS Alberto this week on the storm report posted today. Especially this morning’s deep convective activity over the coastal bend region. - Still does not look like it’s going to dry out with another entity in the SW Gulf this weekend/early next week. So the flooding potential will still be in place around here. Especially with the low FFGs brought by TS Alberto now. Even through next weekend (end of June), both Euro & GFS still holding onto aoa 2” PWs at times over the Eastern half of the state (even in NTX). That system looks like it will be less of a rainmaker this far N, the slop gyre is weakening and shifting W as the ECUSA ridge builds back. Mid level humidity is lower and heights will be higher/ GFS and GEFS show only the lower RGV topping 2 inches and MBY getting about one half inch. DFW at near 1.8" PW still has subsidence and a large dry later from 700 to 400 mb per GFS.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 DFW is currently at +1.0°F for June. The departure will likely increase further as we head into the final week of the month. If so, while not be record-breaking, that will mean another solidly above average month temp-wise despite the wet soils and all of the rainfall. There may be a bit of a fly in the ointment though, as there are hints we could at least be grazed by ROF convection out of OK/KS/AR midweek with a transient breakdown of the eastern ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 BTW, 2024 is also the 5th warmest year to-date on record for DFW (warmer than both 2022 and 2023 to-date), even with a January that was well below average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted June 21 Author Share Posted June 21 On 6/20/2024 at 3:56 PM, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: That system looks like it will be less of a rainmaker this far N, the slop gyre is weakening and shifting W as the ECUSA ridge builds back. Mid level humidity is lower and heights will be higher/ GFS and GEFS show only the lower RGV topping 2 inches and MBY getting about one half inch. DFW at near 1.8" PW still has subsidence and a large dry later from 700 to 400 mb per GFS.. Wouldn't expect to see the totals TS Alberto brought. But wouldn’t expect it at all, to be dry this weekend either. Anything tropical (even just a popcorn shower) can actually have a downpour. Even today still getting some cells moving onshore about the region. Brownsville & Corpus VWP radars showing LL flow starting to tilt northeastward. So that next trop entity going into the SW Gulf is starting to gain cyclonic characteristics. - Can’t also forget back in May (especially the way things have gone since the past month), that the models/ensembles literally promised us the furnace High would’ve came in and just dominated this month in June. But…, that just didn’t happen. If PW stays 1.7” at least, around the coastal region through next week (after next SW Gulf entity) which is fairly probable all things considered now, can still get at least some cells popping up about the typical daily inland moving sea breeze front. Also still seeing notable thunder probs (at least 10 - 20% areas) on multi-global model consensus into next weekend (to end June). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 21 Share Posted June 21 4 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said: Wouldn't expect to see the totals TS Alberto brought. But wouldn’t expect it at all, to be dry this weekend either. Anything tropical (even just a popcorn shower) can have a downpour. Even today still getting some cells moving onshore about the region. Brownsville & Corpus VWP radars showing LL flow starting to tilt northeastward. So that next trop entity going into the SW Gulf is starting to gain cyclonic characteristics. - Can’t also forget (especially the way things have gone since the past month), that the models/ensembles literally promised us the furnace High would’ve came in and just dominated this month in June. But…, that just didn’t happen. If PW stays 1.7” at least, around the coastal region through next week (after next SW Gulf entity) which is fairly probable all things considered now, can still get at least some cells popping up about the typical daily inland moving sea breeze front. Also still seeing sporadic, notable thunder probs (at least 10 - 20% areas) on multi-global model consensus even through next weekend (to end June). If 2 inches happens in the lower RGV that is a good thing, and not a negligible amount. 10% is a normal sea breeze day if we're not under the death ridge. Had a 2 minute long downpour, which came after gusty winds, as the sea breeze passed. It has grown some friends, but isn't an extensive sea breeze. BTW, I am following hints on ensembles for something in the BoC or Caribbean on ensembles. Op Euro suggests a wave gets enhanced coming into the Caribbean, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 And it begins. DFW observed its first 100*F high of the season today, 3 days earlier than last year and a day earlier than average. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 24 Share Posted June 24 In all likelihood, DFW should also see its first 80*F low of the season tomorrow... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 26 Share Posted June 26 DFW may have tied the record low minimum of 82*F this morning, which was just set last year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 28 Share Posted June 28 DFW achieved an intra-hour high of 100*F today, 2nd time this season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 IAH may finally hit 100F tomorrow. GFS and Canadian both show a hint of a backdoor front into E. Texas Monday, with increased PWs, but not much in the way of rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 Keeping an eye on Beryl... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 30 Share Posted June 30 757 SXUS74 KFWD 302139 RERDFW RECORD EVENT REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORT WORTH TX 435 PM CDT SUN JUN 30 2024 ...RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT DALLAS/FORT WORTH... THE LOW TEMPERATURE AT DFW AIRPORT THIS MORNING WAS 82 DEGREES. THIS BREAKS THE RECORD HIGHEST MINIMUM TEMPERATURE FOR JUNE 30 OF 80 DEGREES, SET PREVIOUSLY IN 2023, 2020, AND 1979. $$ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 DFW set new record maximum lows both on 6/29 and 6/30, with lows of 81F and 82F respectively. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 Models are gonna model with their ridiculous outputs, but logically with the timing of the incoming "deep" trough, I only see 2 realistic outcomes with Beryl as far as possible Texas impacts: 1. A recurvature in the GOM before it reaches Texas, with any/all meaningful impacts confined to Louisiana and eastward. 2. Only parts of South Texas getting skirted with moisture/precip (similar to Alberto) as it slides progressively into/across Mexico #2 would be ideal to help extend the "cool down" for the region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 2 hours ago, Powerball said: Models are gonna model with their ridiculous outputs, but logically with the timing of the incoming "deep" trough, I only see 2 realistic outcomes with Beryl as far as possible Texas impacts: 1. A recurvature in the GOM before it reaches Texas, with any/all meaningful impacts confined to Louisiana and eastward. 2. Only parts of South Texas getting skirted with moisture/precip (similar to Alberto) as it slides progressively into/across Mexico #2 would be ideal to help extend the "cool down" for the region. The Louisiana and Texas threat is dropping based on almost all global models and ensembles. Texas isn't completely safe, the timing of the trough and the strength of Beryl affects how much it turns, but the models are encouraging. Rain in July is always welcome, but some solutions are so far S there won't be much if any in Texas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted July 1 Share Posted July 1 DFW achieved an intra-hour high of 100*F today (3rd this season) *and* set another record maximum low of 83*F this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted July 2 Author Share Posted July 2 Not surprised at all about the hype on here/out there now with currently MH Beryl. Just because a few *outlier models show a northerly track into US coast territory.. It’s already been busier than normal since last Thursday at the stores because of upcoming ID holiday, but it’s very (irritatingly) likely going to stay like that around here through early next week with Beryl, now. It was even crazy at the stores with just a TS Alberto tracking well south a few weeks ago, like if it was a hurricane… - - - Aside from already fairly well-established track consensus, Euro & GFS and ensemble consensus have been going pretty weak the past several days by the time it makes a W Gulf landfall. Even the majority of hurricane models (especially TVCN) show it only at TS strength also by then. Canadian of course, is just going overboard (as per usual with these systems). The TC pattern into the Gulf early this season has been for more southerly tracks (just like both TS Alberto & Chris did). Seeing these things over years, TC Beryl is likely also going to do a similar track somewhere into MX. Not only that, it’s going to be fighting an already active SAL at least somewhat, as I’m seeing more plumes moving into the Caribbean and W Gulf this weekend on NASA/GMAO dust forecast model. ‘Already been seeing the haze effects of SAL around here since the past 2 days or so now. - - - - Overall, Beryl is looking to be mainly another tropical rainmaker for TX (at least the southern half). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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