Stx_Thunder Posted May 31 Author Share Posted May 31 Watching evolution & southward progression of the new MCCs ongoing in the hill country (northwest of Austin), and in NM going into tonight, as of typing this. Looks to definitely effect San Antonio area this evening or overnight. - - - Got a strong outflow front from the MCS moving through Houston area and out over the Gulf earlier this morning with some 50 mph gusts and heard some nice CGs, along with some more modest rainfall. Things are probably too stable now over NTX - SETX for much of anything else through tonight from this morning’s sharply organized system. But would think it’ll pick up again in those regions by later tomorrow/night. Especially with some better ML shortwave energy projected to track through the state at times this weekend on both Euro & GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted May 31 Author Share Posted May 31 11 hours ago, cstrunk said: I'm looking forward to some drier weather, I need to mow my lawn! ‘Really kind of doubting that’ll happen for at least the next 2 weeks. Especially over NTX/ETX where there’s been lots of convective stuff going on quite persistently since end of April. Even starting June now, there’s still lots of significant influence from SS still in place over all of the state. Which isn’t typical on summer’s doorstep now. Especially down around here. Models (especially Euro & ensembles) just got way too excited on the typical, controlling furnace 500Mb High this time of year really taking over the state a few weeks ago. And we’ve been basically getting the exact opposite of that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 Dallas County had a foot of rain in May Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted June 1 Author Share Posted June 1 12z CRP obs sounding this morning is convectively primed with a P. Only caveat is a bit of 700Mb warm nose. - - - Will see how much of that built-up energy is realized today/night, but already seeing a line of cells popping up fairly quick in the past hour just south of San Antonio - near Victoria, with an outflow coming from the overnight upstream MCS activity in the panhandle and western hill country. There appears to be a decent mid/upper shortwave approaching the region from the west on 12z UA compiled data on SPC this morning also (decent area of 300Mb divergence just west of middle Rio Grande). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
donsutherland1 Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 Brownsville experienced its warmest May on record. Brownsville's May was also warmer than any June on record. Some records from Florida, Puerto Rico, and Texas: Del Rio demolished its May and Spring records. It also had its first May extreme heat event (Clarke et al., 2014 methodology) on record. Some highlights from Del Rio: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 19 hours ago, Powerball said: 2024 wil end up being the 5th warmest Spring in record for DFW, warmer than 2022. This will, BTW, be without a single month in Met. Spring making the top 10 warmest list. Spoke too soon. May 2024 will tie for the 10th warmest on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted June 1 Author Share Posted June 1 https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1106.html - Hasn’t moved much and been going on for about 4 hours now in the same area near/around the mid-upper coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 1 Share Posted June 1 Severe T-Storm Watch for the coastal plain/US 59 corridor from just N of CRP into most of the HOU metro. Storms are building and slowly moving NE into the HOU, but none are warned or look particularly strong. There is a lonely but strong cell with radar indicated hail approaching DFW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 Oh... https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1797301667484008738?t=v-uBruaPqvEdOZHVjiLIEQ&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 Looking active for DFW a few hours from now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1797349231419883962?t=FiBAunQE743CW32v4IiX0Q&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 https://x.com/NWSSPC/status/1797340937842291099?t=WRuyFYUyjxTkR8YHhFq0TA&s=19 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 It's been a struggle much of the day, but with an uptick in shear the past few hours, the storms seem to be starting to forward propgate and form into a more solid line now as it pushes into the Metroplex. Over 500 lightning strikes per minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 DFW just closed down its entire departure bank. It’s hailing there. And the worst is yet to come. They’ve had a horrific week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 33 minutes ago, canderson said: DFW just closed down its entire departure bank. It’s hailing there. And the worst is yet to come. They’ve had a horrific week. Also, Flash Flood & Severe Thunderstorm Warning here in Collin County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 It's also crazy because no models picked up on this activity and there was only a 20% chance of precip as of this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 Even parts of Louisiana / Arkansas that weren't even under the SPC outlook for severe weather are now under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
canderson Posted June 2 Share Posted June 2 23 minutes ago, Powerball said: Even parts of Louisiana / Arkansas that weren't even under the SPC outlook for severe weather are now under a Severe Thunderstorm Watch... Weird motion to the storms S of the metroplex. Some are moving due north, some due east, some NE and some stationary. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 Looks like the ridge runners are slowly moving N and E as the Mexican heat ridge builds in. Highest heights look to be in Chihuahua, and all the ensembles at 360 hours show normal or even slightly below normal temps for much of the E half of the state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chinook Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 Every squall line ends up at Shreveport yesterday's nearly 24-hour long squall line produced severe weather towards Mississippi and Louisiana heavy rain 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cstrunk Posted June 4 Share Posted June 4 I'm on day 8 in a row with measurable rainfall, with several multi-inch events within this span. Tomorrow morning will likely be day 9. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 7 Share Posted June 7 Heat ridge still stubbornly refusing to lock in. Another NW flow event next week on all the ensembles. Tuesday afternoon & evening looks like another round of severe weather for NTX if GFS is any guide.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Powerball Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 3 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Heat ridge still stubbornly refusing to lock in. Another NW flow event next week on all the ensembles. Tuesday afternoon & evening looks like another round of severe weather for NTX if GFS is any guide.. Next week's been shot for a while. It's the 3rd week of June when it should really lock in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted June 8 Author Share Posted June 8 22 hours ago, Ed, snow and hurricane fan said: Heat ridge still stubbornly refusing to lock in. Another NW flow event next week on all the ensembles. Tuesday afternoon & evening looks like another round of severe weather for NTX if GFS is any guide.. Saw towering cumulus (convergence bands) early this morning moving onshore around here. So subsidence from H5 furnace High over the state now is not strong (despite lack of moisture aloft currently over the coastal region). H5 heights are just barely above 590dm around here. Pretty weak for STX standards. - - - - - Both Euro and GFS showing a fairly deep northerly M-UL flow & some notable DL shear over the state for this time of year, this upcoming week on the northeastern periphery of High moving further west-southwest again back over Mex. And, the cutoff H5 Low sitting just west of Baja. - - - - - That should cause some decent ML shortwave energy from that Low to curve east around the northern side of the High and then southeast - southward, deep into the state as the High is still projected to be pretty weak/small (still just around 590dm center) on GFS today. Which I wouldn’t doubt, all things considered lately. Euro this morning is a little more bias. Overall so far, a sig turnaround compared to June last year in 2023 when the furnace High really grew & strengthened like hell on earth by mid-month. Also, still not seeing a real strong signal on the furnace High really taking over either on ensembles the next couple of weeks. GEFS and EPS are actually starting to trend upward on Total QPF at the end of cycles over the Eastern half of state on latest runs. - - - ‘Will see how July goes with the furnace High (which normally starts to take over more then). But I’m basically calling this a “make-up” summer for 2024 now, as we also got a meandering H5 Low or wave starting to show up just east of the coastal region & some 2+ in. PWs moving over the coast (more so over SETX) on both models, after Fathers Day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 8 Share Posted June 8 9 minutes ago, Stx_Thunder said: Saw towering cumulus (convergence bands) early this morning moving onshore around here. So subsidence from H5 furnace High over the state now is not strong (despite lack of moisture aloft currently over the coastal region). H5 heights are just barely above 590dm around here. Pretty weak for STX standards. - - - - - Both Euro and GFS showing a fairly deep northerly M-UL flow & some notable DL shear over the state for this time of year, this upcoming week on the northeastern periphery of High moving further west-southwest again back over Mex. And, the cutoff H5 Low sitting just west of Baja. - - - - - That should cause some decent ML shortwave energy from that Low to curve east around the northern side of the High and then southeast - southward, deep into the state as the High is still projected to be pretty weak/small (still just around 590dm center) on GFS today. Which I wouldn’t doubt, all things considered lately. Euro this morning is a little more bias. Overall so far, a sig turnaround compared to June last year in 2023 when the furnace High really grew & strengthened like hell on earth by mid-month. Also, still not seeing a real strong signal on the furnace High really taking over either on ensembles the next couple of weeks. GEFS and EPS are actually starting to trend upward on Total QPF at the end of cycles over the Eastern half of state on latest runs. - - - ‘Will see how July goes with the furnace High (which normally starts to take over more by then). But I’m basically calling this a “make-up” summer for 2024 now, as we also got a meandering H5 Low or wave starting to show up just east of the coastal region & some 2+ in. PWs moving over the coast (more so over SETX) on both models, Fathers Day weekend into following week. Just a look at the US and Canadian ensembles, NTX is getting the most rain. Canadian OP shows little rain near/S of I-10. Sort of OT, but South Florida looks rather wet on those ensembles, with the op runs of both suggesting near/more than 1 foot next week. I suspect IMBY, any rain will come on the afternoon sea and bay breezes, although an MCS surviving from the DFW area isn't a non-zero. possibility, as they say. Early Euro suggests a bit of the trough to the E of us may pinch off and move W, that scenario would seem favorable for enhanced afternoon storms along the TX coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 10 Share Posted June 10 Light and variable winds (except in t-storms near Corpus Christi) and RAP PW of 1.7 inch or higher (AOA 2 inches from Matagorda Bay down to Mexico) is probably supporting the weakening MCS moving offshore near CRP and the sea/bay breeze storms forming just inland further N. Not sure where the front is exactly, but it is probably also helping. There is also a broad mid-level low over NM/TX Panhandle which per 12Z NAM will be ejecting random bits of vorticity. Now that the floods have gone down. the longer the occasional rain kicks in before the summer heat ridge builds in, the better. May keep the ridge a bit weaker with evaporational cooling of damp grounds. May make for an overall milder summer. Euro/American and Canadian ensembles all show the ridge centered out in New Mexico and Arizona in 2 weeks, which may keep us from the two months of 100F or higher temps in STX of 2023. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 11 Share Posted June 11 GFS and ensembles suggest frequent showers this time next week from a weak but broad area of lower pressure deep in the BoC that pumps in high PWs into STX, over 2.5 in Houston, and close to 2.7 inches in Alice, the town I consider the center of South Texas. I had a friend who finished college before me who lived there, I visited several times, had a brief relationship with my friend's GF's sister, and saw a real John Wayne movie style bar fight, started with 2 women, then their boyfriends jumped in, and then the whole bar. I stood with my back to a corner so I wouldn't take a beer bottle to the head from behind. Anyway, I am of the belief that a heat ridge delayed is a heat ridge weakened, delayed and with wet ground, doesn't get as strong due to feedback from hot and dry ground. The daily rainfall in this scenario of 1 to 2 inches per day wouldn't cause flooding. Globals differ in detail, but all show elevated PW 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stx_Thunder Posted June 13 Author Share Posted June 13 MCS and Spring thunder/severe season has pretty much ended for the state now. ML lapse rates have really dropped since a week ago (has been even < 5.0 C/km at times on BRO & CRP soundings). - All to my dismay. - - - - - In any case going into TX tropical season now, GFS is really (likely overdoing) rainfall accumulation through next week, showing > 10 in. over STX in latest 0z run tonight with convective feedback problems likely involved. Euro remains much more steady & conservative with just a few inches. Which would be the more likely scenario. Especially, if Bay of Campeche disturbance does go TS (deeper moisture ‘get held further south). Both models though, have been showing areas of up to an impressive 3+, PW over the Western Gulf next week (since a couple days ago or so). - - Multi-global model consensus thunder/deeper convection probs still on the higher side Wednesday morning - Thursday evening, over much of TX coast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 15 Share Posted June 15 On 6/13/2024 at 5:20 AM, Stx_Thunder said: MCS and Spring thunder/severe season has pretty much ended for the state now. ML lapse rates have really dropped since a week ago (has been even < 5.0 C/km at times on BRO & CRP soundings). - All to my dismay. - - - - - In any case going into TX tropical season now, GFS is really (likely overdoing) rainfall accumulation through next week, showing > 10 in. over STX in latest 0z run tonight with convective feedback problems likely involved. Euro remains much more steady & conservative with just a few inches. Which would be the more likely scenario. Especially, if Bay of Campeche disturbance does go TS (deeper moisture ‘get held further south). Both models though, have been showing areas of up to an impressive 3+, PW over the Western Gulf next week (since a couple days ago or so). - - Multi-global model consensus thunder/deeper convection probs still on the higher side Wednesday morning - Thursday evening, over much of TX coast. GFS is 3 to 4 times more precip then the Euro, but both maximize rain over the Upper Texas Coast (but no part of the coast escapes several inches) as the BoC tropical low stays poorly organized allowing the best convergence and PW to be well N of the lowest pressure. GFS shown because a foot or more for Houston isn't happening, but eye catching colors. PW values are close for the Euro, but 30 knot 850 flow doesn't get the moisture in as fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed, snow and hurricane fan Posted June 16 Share Posted June 16 @Stx_Thunder Heaviest rain away from the immediate coast is shifting S on the models towards CRP. San Antonio and Austin are in level 2/level 3 drought, the rain is a good thing for them. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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