Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations

[gwlee7]

2 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

I think DFW is is safely in the cold sector and should stay all snow. Maybe isolated outages where heavy snow brings down weak limbs. Now south of a Waco to Longview line could see substantial icing and have power issues.

Not worried about limbs.. I am worried about the grid itself.   I went without heat or electricity for 5 days when it failed in 2021.   But, yes, all snow > freezing rain every time.  

[canderson]

DFW looks prime for a really nice snow - one larger than most have seen in a good while. ZR will be an issue from Canton on down I think. Per usual in ET ... 

[Powerball]

12z EURO Ensemble Mean...

[gwlee7]

Lol @Powerball.  We don’t want to be in the “jackpot” this early out.  

[Powerball]

12 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

Lol @Powerball.  We don’t want to be in the “jackpot” this early out.  

Bear in mind, that is the mean of 50 different alternative outputs from the ECMWF model (not just the OP or operational model). A few duds mixed in there, but also numerous 10"+ big dogs too. The fact that it has been consistently showing a 6-8" mean for Dallas is pretty exceptional, especially given EURO Ensembles have a reputation of being more reliable than the Emsembles for the other models.

 

[aggiegeog]

1 hour ago, gwlee7 said:

Not worried about limbs.. I am worried about the grid itself.   I went without heat or electricity for 5 days when it failed in 2021.   But, yes, all snow > freezing rain every time.  

Temp wise this is not a particularly cold event. Highs in the upper 20s and lows in the teens happens every year. And that cold is just in N TX the rest of the state will have highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s. 

A big part of the 2021 failure was freezing rain affecting wind farms and I don't see that being a big issue across areas where the wind farms are located. 

[Powerball]

1 minute ago, aggiegeog said:

Temp wise this is not a particularly cold event. Highs in the upper 20s and lows in the teens happens every year. And that cold is just in N TX the rest of the state will have highs in the 30s and lows in the 20s. 

A big part of the 2021 failure was freezing rain affecting wind farms and I don't see that being a big issue across areas where the wind farms are located. 

The bigget threat, power outage-wise, will be poles and limbs weighed down from the plastering of snow if it ends up having a high water content.

[gwlee7]

Fair points to be sure.   And I wasn’t laughing at “you” but the potential “jinx”.    I wouldn’t mind a decent snow.   
 

side note:  we probably live within 30 mins of each other.  My actual location is pretty much where Lewisville, Flower Mound, and Coppell bump into each other.  

[aggiegeog]

1 hour ago, canderson said:

DFW looks prime for a really nice snow - one larger than most have seen in a good while. ZR will be an issue from Canton on down I think. Per usual in ET ... 

I think models are way overdoing the freezing rain threat. yes there will be some but I do not anticipate a big area of freezing rain. a few spots in the Hill Country and Deep East Texas may be the exception to that. For the most part I think this is a rain/sleet/snow event, I do not buy into the major WAA that some models are trying to show.

[canderson]

12 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

I think models are way overdoing the freezing rain threat. yes there will be some but I do not anticipate a big area of freezing rain. a few spots in the Hill Country and Deep East Texas may be the exception to that. For the most part I think this is a rain/sleet/snow event, I do not buy into the major WAA that some models are trying to show.

Fair enough - I've not looked closely at the thermals. I just always expect (and know from growing up there) a warm nose seems to always take over Tyler to Longview. 

[Powerball]

Frankie has spoken!

https://x.com/frankiemacd/status/1876364861032341522?t=sK9mv32YXQL2TqaV_0vAfw&s=19

[aggiegeog]

12 minutes ago, canderson said:

Fair enough - I've not looked closely at the thermals. I just always expect (and know from growing up there) a warm nose seems to always take over Tyler to Longview. 

That is for sure. My current thinking is that the new high over the Rockies will mitigate the WAA at least along and north of the I-20 corridor. Obviously this is E TX and WAA could win out.

Around here, I expect light snow Wed night. Intensity will increase while precip becomes more of a mix Thu. By Thu evening/night the trough nears cooling the mid levels for precip to go back to all snow. The snow should end Friday morning as the low passes to the east.

Something like >0.1" ice, 1" sleet and 2-3" snow for Tyler area. Maybe .1" ice, 1" sleet and 2" snow for Longview. I live north of I-20 so I am hoping mine leans even more in on mainly snow but gonna be a close call.

[Powerball]

18z NAM shifted NW, lookimg a lot like the 12z GFS and last night's EURO.

Also, update from FWD...

[vwgrrc]

18z NAM seems wonky. It shows a foot of snow for half of the state... ICON actually came in drier

[Powerball]

16 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

18z NAM seems wonky. It shows a foot of snow for half of the state... ICON actually came in drier

Drier *AND* warmer. Real nasty work...

But the ICON is a fairly terrible model, even worse than the NAM.

[aggiegeog]

We are talking about a very wet storm, key for this forecast is nailing where the column stays sub 32F. For example my location is modelled for >1.5" QPF while the entire column rides within 2C of freezing the whole event from the surface to above 700mb. That would result in a constant fluctuation of precip types so could be talking a 1" elevated surface only ice storm, 3" plus sleet and snow mix or a foot of snow. Tiny variations in the atmosphere will make massive differences.

[vwgrrc]

47 minutes ago, aggiegeog said:

We are talking about a very wet storm, key for this forecast is nailing where the column stays sub 32F. For example my location is modelled for >1.5" QPF while the entire column rides within 2C of freezing the whole event from the surface to above 700mb. That would result in a constant fluctuation of precip types so could be talking a 1" elevated surface only ice storm, 3" plus sleet and snow mix or a foot of snow. Tiny variations in the atmosphere will make massive differences.

Yea. 18z GFS seems confirming that drier+warmer trend actually. ICON isn't the best but that NAM run looks really outlandish. This still has a chance to become a cold rain even for NTX looks like. 

[Powerball]

A cold rain would be the lesser evil over Ice, although they're both disgusting.

 

[aggiegeog]

16 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Yea. 18z GFS seems confirming that drier+warmer trend actually. ICON isn't the best but that NAM run looks really outlandish. This still has a chance to become a cold rain even for NTX looks like. 

I will disagree with it have a chance to become a rain event. We have a Arctic high pressing cold air into this storm and the storm starts below freezing in most places. All  rain is reserved for south of Austin to Lufkin and even along there it could well mix.

[DFWWeather]

33 minutes ago, vwgrrc said:

Yea. 18z GFS seems confirming that drier+warmer trend actually. ICON isn't the best but that NAM run looks really outlandish. This still has a chance to become a cold rain even for NTX looks like. 

The GFS in general is warm compared to all the other models. The 18z GFS still gives the Metroplex a decent snow event. I would wait and look at the 0z GFS before saying their is a trend. Much more ensemble support with it. Though there was a drier note on the 12z GFS ensemble spread compared to its 0z. NAM is usually a good model for winter storms. The ECMWF has been very consistent with this storm.