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Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations


Stx_Thunder
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Saw significant areas of 2 - 3 in. for yesterday's storm totals over ETX. That now brings accumulated rain totals actually up to and even over 10" in a couple spots over far ETX since the last few days of November. Which is well above normal now for this month in December there no matter how you look it at it. I also looked at some average monthly rainfall climatology map data for December to verify. This has basically become a repeat of the late spring ETX waterlogging earlier this year.

Also, HGX radar estimated about 5 in. area yesterday with the stronger cells not far east of Houston, near Beaumont. Victoria area also got lambasted with several inches of rainfall in just a few hours from the Christmas Eve night thunder system (flash flood warnings obviously issued there that night going into Christmas morning).

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This looks to be it for major convective events for the rest of 2024. Winter looks to return to the whole state by the very start of 2025. Which will be nice with all things considered of late.

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DFW may be on track for a top 10 warmest December this year.

In addition, to-date, 2024 is currently tied with 2023 for the 2nd warmest year on record (69.7*F). For perspective, the warmest year on record is currently 2017 at 69.8*F.

Once 2024 officially concludes and knocks 1933 off the list, the oldest year in the top 10 ranking will be 1998 (and 8 of the 10 years will have all been in the 21st century)

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Looking ahead into 2025 (before new years celebrating comes), just saw the latest 0Z Euro and GFS runs on projected temps after Jan 5th across the state. Ensembles not going as cold at this point, but CFS is also trending colder in the state as well in the last few runs. And, AO is forecast to go back negative (possibly significant phase) in the beginning of January.

Am more surprised Euro is going colder than GFS here. Which usually isn't the case this far out.

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Before winter starts returning to the state going into the new year, McAllen reached & set a new record high of 91 F yesterday. Which even there by December is well above normal (about 20 degrees). Previous record, 89 F in 2016.

The potential is definitely there for another record-breaking heat spike into the 90s in deep STX tomorrow ahead of the first in a series of winter-returning cold fronts. NBM output from what I was reading on Brownsville AFD this afternoon going as high as 95 F. Which definitely is not out of the realm of possibility in the McAllen/Rio Grande City area considering GFS showing 850mb temps > 20 C and a typical south-southwesterly pre-frontal LL flow.

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More 90s starting to show up over STX this afternoon than forecast. Especially closer to the Rio Grande/Laredo area. There's a dryline moving into the region with southwest - west surface flow and dropping DPs on obs. So looks like a good amount of records are going to be broken today across the region.

Even San Antonio is next to 90 F now which I'm sure is already in record territory.

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Not only will this December be a top 3 warmest for DFW (surprising considering how milquetoast the month started and no real extreme warmth), it should also be good enough for DFW to tie the warmest yeard on record with average temperature of 69.8*F (the previous record was set in 2017).

EDIT: 

Should also add:

All top 5 of the warmest years on record will now have been since 2010 years (2024, 2017, 2023, 2016 and 2012).

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Next week is a beautiful pattern for snow across TX. On edge of an Arctic air mass which sends down waves of cold while still allowing for shortwaves to pass overhead. While this is ongoing a trough digs into the SW USA allowing us to tap into Pacific moisture on top of the Gulf moisture that will be pulled up by surface lows.

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To note, the most notable heat spike record highs over the southern part of state on December 30th are:

 

San Antonio at 89 F (previous 83 F in 1951)

McAllen at 94 F (previous 89 F in 1945)

Victoria at 87 F (previous 82 F in 1973)

 

Fairly extreme records to end 2024.

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9 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

GFS is the most consistent with next week's storm and it is consistently showing a near ideal set up for a nearly statewide significant snow event.

Actually, GFS wasn't going very cold and didn't start blowing winter precip up over the state until a couple days ago. Euro's actually been more consistent overall since around or just after Christmas with this likely winter cold outbreak next week. The much colder air intrusion is pretty much a certainty now. Especially because of the already strengthening ongoing -AO phase. But the winter precip potential across TX is still more like 50/50 as things stand today looking at all the model data over the last several days as well. Which is also harder to project than colder temps. Especially still being a week away FYI.

I haven't read their AFD today but the likely reason Dallas/Fort Worth NWS office is keeping the better precip south of their CWA is because the stronger continental airmass intrusion or deeper northerly L-ML flow in NTX could dry out the column more than to support any real precip around there when the energy from the advertised SS Low out west later next week takes shape. The Euro ensemble system (EPS) is starting to show this over DFW area in today's 12z run. GEFS also isn't showing much either over NTX.

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23 hours ago, Powerball said:

For what little it's worth, the EURO ensembles has a fairly widespread 6-8" mean for North Texas, which is impressive at face value.

The GEFS and CMCE aren't bad-looking either.

 

Ensembles remain remarkably consistent, especially the EURO, with both placement and mean totals.

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Things look really good for DFW as far as snow. For the Austin to Tyler corridor, things are murkier with temps in question. I still lean towards a minimal warm nose so thinking mainly snow or rain. Still watching for if there is a warm nose for the first part of the storm in that corridor. As the upper trough nears the cold pool aloft should transition things to purely rain or snow.

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7 hours ago, aggiegeog said:

Becoming increasingly likely that this is an all time type event for DFW. Definitely a top 10 event for them and maybe a top 3. Those caught in convective bands could see over a foot.

I certainly agree with you. This will be one for the record books should the forecast hold. Widespread 5 to 10 inches with isolated higher amounts for the Metroplex. The event will rival the February 2010 event (though this looks colder), January 1964, and February 1978. Low temps will crater to the upper teens on Saturday with that much snowfall. This will disrupt travel not only Thursday/Friday, but likely into the weekend as well.

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1 hour ago, DFWWeather said:

I certainly agree with you. This will be one for the record books should the forecast hold. Widespread 5 to 10 inches with isolated higher amounts for the Metroplex. The event will rival the February 2010 event (though this looks colder), January 1964, and February 1978. Low temps will crater to the upper teens on Saturday with that much snowfall. This will disrupt travel not only Thursday/Friday, but likely into the weekend as well.

It almost always takes longer than expected to warm up after a big snow. I agree that Sat morning will be in the teens for many. Outside of DFW some may push single digits. 

There is a little wave on Sat that could drop a bit more freezing precip. Then another storm next week that has snow potential. This is not a one storm event. 

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19 minutes ago, gwlee7 said:

As long as the power grid holds... bring it on.  :)

I think DFW is is safely in the cold sector and should stay all snow. Maybe isolated outages where heavy snow brings down weak limbs. Now south of a Waco to Longview line could see substantial icing and have power issues.

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