Texas 2024 Discussion/Observations

[Chinook]

this is about 45 miles from Shreveport

[Stx_Thunder]

Saw significant areas of 2 - 3 in. for yesterday's storm totals over ETX. That now brings accumulated rain totals actually up to and even over 10" in a couple spots over far ETX since the last few days of November. Which is well above normal now for this month in December there no matter how you look it at it. I also looked at some average monthly rainfall climatology map data for December to verify. This has basically become a repeat of the late spring ETX waterlogging earlier this year.

Also, HGX radar estimated about 5 in. area yesterday with the stronger cells not far east of Houston, near Beaumont. Victoria area also got lambasted with several inches of rainfall in just a few hours from the Christmas Eve night thunder system (flash flood warnings obviously issued there that night going into Christmas morning).

 

This looks to be it for major convective events for the rest of 2024. Winter looks to return to the whole state by the very start of 2025. Which will be nice with all things considered of late.

[Powerball]

DFW may be on track for a top 10 warmest December this year.

In addition, to-date, 2024 is currently tied with 2023 for the 2nd warmest year on record (69.7*F). For perspective, the warmest year on record is currently 2017 at 69.8*F.

Once 2024 officially concludes and knocks 1933 off the list, the oldest year in the top 10 ranking will be 1998 (and 8 of the 10 years will have all been in the 21st century)

[Stx_Thunder]

Looking ahead into 2025 (before new years celebrating comes), just saw the latest 0Z Euro and GFS runs on projected temps after Jan 5th across the state. Ensembles not going as cold at this point, but CFS is also trending colder in the state as well in the last few runs. And, AO is forecast to go back negative (possibly significant phase) in the beginning of January.

Am more surprised Euro is going colder than GFS here. Which usually isn't the case this far out.

[Stx_Thunder]

Before winter starts returning to the state going into the new year, McAllen reached & set a new record high of 91 F yesterday. Which even there by December is well above normal (about 20 degrees). Previous record, 89 F in 2016.

The potential is definitely there for another record-breaking heat spike into the 90s in deep STX tomorrow ahead of the first in a series of winter-returning cold fronts. NBM output from what I was reading on Brownsville AFD this afternoon going as high as 95 F. Which definitely is not out of the realm of possibility in the McAllen/Rio Grande City area considering GFS showing 850mb temps > 20 C and a typical south-southwesterly pre-frontal LL flow.

[Stx_Thunder]

More 90s starting to show up over STX this afternoon than forecast. Especially closer to the Rio Grande/Laredo area. There's a dryline moving into the region with southwest - west surface flow and dropping DPs on obs. So looks like a good amount of records are going to be broken today across the region.

Even San Antonio is next to 90 F now which I'm sure is already in record territory.

[Powerball]

Today's high at DFW was 82*F officially, several degrees above the forecasted high.

[Powerball]

Not only will this December be a top 3 warmest for DFW (surprising considering how milquetoast the month started and no real extreme warmth), it should also be good enough for DFW to tie the warmest yeard on record with average temperature of 69.8*F (the previous record was set in 2017).

EDIT: 

Should also add:

All top 5 of the warmest years on record will now have been since 2010 years (2024, 2017, 2023, 2016 and 2012).

[Powerball]

[aggiegeog]

Next week is a beautiful pattern for snow across TX. On edge of an Arctic air mass which sends down waves of cold while still allowing for shortwaves to pass overhead. While this is ongoing a trough digs into the SW USA allowing us to tap into Pacific moisture on top of the Gulf moisture that will be pulled up by surface lows.

[Stx_Thunder]

To note, the most notable heat spike record highs over the southern part of state on December 30th are:

 

San Antonio at 89 F (previous 83 F in 1951)

McAllen at 94 F (previous 89 F in 1945)

Victoria at 87 F (previous 82 F in 1973)

 

Fairly extreme records to end 2024.